NASCAR at Pocono 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Pennsylvania 400
We should probably talk about what happened this past weekend at the Brickyard 400 before we talk about the upcoming Pennsylvania 400 at Pocono Raceway.
Kyle Busch's win was so much more than the 149 laps led or the fact that he won two years in a row. That was a reminder to the NASCAR world at large that Joe Gibbs Racing is through being a summer doormat.
Excluding Matt Kenseth’s win in Loudon and Busch’s schoolyard beatdown at Indy, JGR hadn’t “won” a race since Martin Truex Jr. took the other 39 drivers to the woodshed at Charlotte.
“Won” because he’s merely a JGR ally in this war. Including Truex’s Coca-Cola 600 win, JGR had won seven of eight races, with four- and three-race win streaks nestled in there.
Then came a five-race skid, but it appears JGR is back atop the mountain with the new rigs it brought to Indy.
So after earning all that momentum, the Sprint Cup Series heads back to Pocono for the Pennsylvania 400, and betting against JGR from here on out is a fool’s wager.
Read on for this week’s preview from the Poconos.
By the Numbers: Pocono Raceway
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The Pennsylvania 400
Place: Pocono Raceway
Date: Sunday, July 31
TV Coverage: 1:48 p.m. ET, NBCSN
Distance: 400 miles, 160 laps
Defending Champion: Matt Kenseth
Current Driver Standings
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1. Kevin Harvick, 671
2. Brad Keselowski, 647
3. Kurt Busch, 627
4. Joey Logano, 606
5. Kyle Busch, 601
6. Carl Edwards, 593
7. Martin Truex Jr., 573
8. Jimmie Johnson, 552
9. Matt Kenseth, 545
10. Denny Hamlin, 542
11. Chase Elliott, 542
12. Austin Dillon, 520
13. Ryan Newman, 507
14. Jamie McMurray, 496
15. Kyle Larson, 472
16. Kasey Kahne, 462
27. Tony Stewart, 317
Bold denotes winner. Italics denote multi-race winner.
The Chase Bubble Watch
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11. Chase Elliott, +63
12. Austin Dillon, +58
13. Ryan Newman, +45
14. Jamie McMurray, +36
15. Kyle Larson, +10
16. Kasey Kahne, -10
17. Dale Earnhardt Jr., -11
18. Trevor Bayne, -14
19. Ryan Blaney, -22
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., -23
Biggest Storyline: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Still on the Mend
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Folks who thought Dale Earnhardt Jr. would return after missing two races got hit with the reality of his missing a third in a row. And you know what? With no timetable for a return, maybe it’s within reason to think he’ll miss the rest of the season.
"Myself, I've been working on the exercises -- physical and mental exercises that they gave me, from my doctors," Earnhardt said in his weekly podcast, Dale Jr. Download (h/t Tom Jensen of FoxSports.com). "That stuff takes about 2 hours, 2½ hours, each day. I've got to do it every day. There's worse things to have to do. Some of it's tedious. Some of it's pretty tough. Some of the visual stuff is pretty tough."
Anything longer than a week-to-week assessment is merely speculative, but when he uses phrasing like “This process is going to take a little bit longer,” and "I'm not going to go against that advice, no matter what. I can't play around at this age. With my history, I definitely don't need to get cute,” you get the idea that he could shut it down for the season, maybe for good.
Given that the No. 88 team will likely miss the Chase, why risk his health?
And why rush back? Tiger Woods decided to shut it down for the year. Imagine the gains he could have made years ago had he shut it down to heal properly. Think of the time that could have been saved, time that is now lost.
It's the same with Junior. Shutting it down this year could make for a better driver in the twilight years of his career.
Biggest Storyline: So What About the No. 88 Team?
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So what about the No. 88 car and the team behind it?
Jeff Gordon piloted the car brilliantly in the Brickyard 400, finishing 13th from a starting position of 21st.
That doesn’t look great, but it isn’t half bad either. Think about it. That No. 88 car is a top-15 car, and it has been all year. And for Gordon to come out of retirement, return from a vacation in beautiful France and drive the way he did at one of the toughest tracks on the circuit speaks volumes for his potential at Pocono.
Or are we wearing the equivalent of beer goggles when it comes to Gordon? He even said during the NBCSN broadcast that he got his “butt kicked” on restarts, and that’s where many of these races are won and lost.
The fact is that No. 88 car has a whole lot of trouble even reaching the front. But maybe Pocono will be the key to unlocking that. Junior swept the Pocono races in 2014, and he finished second in the early June race to Kurt Busch.
It appears that maybe a top 10 is within reach for Gordon. He’ll need it. As it stands, that No. 88 team is below the cutline and in desperate need of points.
Biggest Storyline: Is Joe Gibbs Racing Reclaiming Its Seat?
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The intro to this little number went heavy on JGR and the possibility of a mid-summer awakening.
A year ago during this similar stretch of races, JGR burned more post-race rubber en route to Victory Lane than any other team, winning seven of nine. It sent all four of its drivers to VL at least once.
Now in 2016, after a mini-funk—call it an intermission—JGR has won two in a row and finished three of its four drivers inside the top four at the Brickyard.
You think maybe the JGR brass read Fox Sports’ Larry McReynolds’ assessment that maybe it’s no longer the team to beat? (Actually, it’s just headline bait. Larry Mac warned of ringing the bell too soon on Team Penske being the new alpha in town.)
"I actually think we need to wait until we go back to Pocono and then onto the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis before we can truly say who the real players are," McReynolds wrote. "I think once those races are behind us we'll have a much better idea of who has caught who. Who might have gained some or who might have lost some."
With the return to the original aero package we saw at the beginning of the year, we’re starting to see JGR regain its toehold on the mountain.
Expect a big weekend for the four-and-one JGR cars, maybe all inside the top 10 with most inside the top five.
Dark-Horse Pick: Greg Biffle
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It seems every time I throw down a little “money” here on the dark-horse pick, that car inevitably smashes a wall and spends more time in the garage than on the track.
So who’s the pick this week? Greg Biffle! (Sorry, Biffle.)
He finished fifth at this track in the 2015 summer race and, with the exception of last week’s single-car accident, had three straight top 10s. Those Roush Fenway cars are hanging in there.
Trevor Bayne would still be inside the Chase cutoff if it weren’t for his knucklehead accident late in the Brickyard, but Biffle—ever the veteran—could find his way to Victory Lane at the track where he last won in 2010.
And the Winner Is...Martin Truex Jr.
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Truex Jr. won at Pocono last year and has been red-hot this summer. It hasn’t translated into wins, but he’s been the best single-win car this season.
Yes, even over Kevin Harvick.
Just looking at laps led, Truex has Harvick beat by a count of 989 to 829. Both drivers have pit-road issues, but Truex has the team du jour and the horse power under this new aero package to dominate races.
We can look back on this season and say he could easily have four or five wins. The devil’s advocate side to the coin is, “Yeah, but he, um, didn’t,” which speaks to his inability to close or the pit crew’s failure to handle those last two pit stops.
Seeing as this is the time when drivers need to put on their big-boy fire suits, expect Truex’s team to close out some of these races, starting with Pocono.
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