USA Summer Olympic Team 2016: America's Best Bets for Gold in Rio
Team USA has won at least 36 gold medals in every Summer Olympics dating back to 1984, and you can take it to the bank that swimming phenom Katie Ledecky will bring home at least one for her performance in the 800-meter freestyle in Rio de Janeiro.
With apologies to the rest of the world, there are a handful events where the United States cannot be touched in 2016.
Some are team events (men's basketball and women's soccer, to name a few) where Team USA's whole is greater than the sum of every other country's parts. Others are individual events in which Team USA has the good fortune of sending someone who has dominated the past few track and field or gymnastics world championships.
Go ahead and cue up the United States' national anthem before these 10 events.
The following slides are listed in ascending order of likelihood of gold for Team USA.
Honorable Mentions
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All of Michael Phelps' Events (Swimming)
At 31 years old, Michael Phelps will swim in the 100-meter butterfly, 200-meter fly, 200-meter individual medley and potentially all three relays (4x100 freestyle, 4x200 free and 4x100 medley). With 18 Olympic gold medals already to his name, there's a good chance he'll win whenever he's in the pool.
But South Africa's Chad le Clos and Singapore's Joseph Schooling are serious threats in the aging Phelps' signature events, who told reporters multiple times during the U.S. trials that he'll need to be faster in Rio to have any shot at a gold.
Women's Beach Volleyball
For more than a decade, Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh Jennings owned the sand. The duo won gold at the 2004, 2008 and 2012 Olympics, as well as the 2003, 2005 and 2007 world championships. By the time May-Treanor retired in 2012, Team USA also had the second-best beach volleyball duo in the world, as April Ross and Jennifer Kessy earned the silver medal in London.
But Walsh Jennings and Ross will be underdogs in Rio, as they own a 1-5 record against Brazil's Larissa and Talita.
Men's 100 meter (Track)
A hamstring injury threatened Jamaican star Usain Bolt's bid for the Olympics, but he showed by dominating the 200 meter in late July at the London Diamond League that he can still run like the wind. But both Justin Gatlin and Trayvon Bromell have the speed to dethrone Bolt if he's at anything less than 100 percent in Rio.
Women's 4x100-meter relay (Track)
Allyson Felix, Bianca Knight, Carmelita Jeter and Tianna Madison set a world record in the 4x100-meter relay in London, but only one of those women (Madison, who has since married and changed her last name to Bartoletta) will be on that team this year. Besting Jamaica with three "new" sprinters could be a challenge.
10. Men's Triple Jump (Christian Taylor)
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With his final triple jump at the 2015 world championships in Beijing, Christian Taylor almost broke the world record.
He entered the sixth and final round of the event with a top score of 17.68 meters—which is better than anyone other than Taylor did at the 2012 Olympics, when his 17.81 bested silver medalist and fellow American Will Claye (17.62). But with Cuba's Pedro Pablo Pichardo hot on his tail, Taylor dug deep for a triple jump of 18.21 meters—just 0.08 meters shy of the world record and good for second best ever recorded.
It's a good thing, too, because Pichardo had a final jump of 17.73 meters that would have beaten Taylor's previous best at that event.
In the summer of 2015, Pichardo set the Cuban record for triple jump three times, maxing out at 18.08 meters. Taylor is close to a lock for no worse than a silver medal, but Pichardo might keep him from the top of the winner's platform.
9. Women's Tennis (Singles and Doubles)
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Fresh off a Wimbledon championship—the seventh of her career and 22nd overall major singles title—Serena Williams appears poised for more Olympic gold. Not only did she win the singles gold medal in 2012, Serena and sister Venus Williams won doubles gold in 2000, 2008 and 2012.
But age eventually catches up with us all, and the Williams sisters have put a lot of miles on their legs over the past two decades.
Venus recently turned 36 and hasn't reached a major final since 2009. Serena is 34 and is the oldest woman to win a major during the Open era. She also withdrew from the Rogers Cup in late July, citing shoulder inflammation.
With the U.S. Open beginning just two weeks after the gold-medal matches, one has to wonder just how hard either Williams will push herself in Rio.
In London in 2012, Serena won singles gold without allowing an opponent to win four games in any set. The sisters also won doubles gold, though not quite as dominantly. They should be the favorites in both events, but after four more years of wear and tear, gold isn't the stone-cold lock it used to be.
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8. Women's Long Jump (Brittney Reese)
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Since her fifth-place finish in the women's long jump at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, Brittney Reese has won gold just about every chance she's gotten. Between the 2012 Olympics, the world championships in odd-numbered years and the world indoor championships in even-numbered years, Reese has seven gold medals in the past eight years.
And she's still improving.
At the U.S. trials in Portland, Oregon, in July, Reese jumped a personal-best 23 feet (7.31 meters). Considering she won gold with a jump of 7.12 meters in 2012 and the winning jump at the 2015 world championships was 7.14 meters, another performance like that would be more than enough for 2016 Olympic gold.
But even if Reese doesn't qualify or has trouble flying in the finals, the Americans still boast the reigning world champion. Tianna Bartoletta won gold in Beijing last August with that 7.14-meter jump, so there's a good chance Team USA will secure a pair of medals in the women's long jump.
7. Men's Basketball
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LeBron James, Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard highlight a long list of NBA stars who opted not to play for Team USA this summer, so it's not nearly the dream team it could have been.
Still, there's no denying this is the best basketball team at the Olympics.
Team USA has not lost a game since the semifinals of the 2006 FIBA world championship, and Kevin Durant, Paul George, Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving have no intentions of letting that run end this year.
Despite the decadelong streak of wins, though, there were some close calls four years ago, including a five-point win over Lithuania in the preliminary rounds and just a seven-point win over Spain in the gold-medal game.
Team USA will be the overwhelming favorite for gold in men's basketball, but if you're betting your mortgage on one specific event where U.S. must win gold, there are better options.
6. Women's 4x200 Free Relay
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Led by Missy Franklin and Allison Schmitt, Team USA won gold four years ago in the 4x200-meter free relay, setting an Olympic record in the process. And with the additions of Katie Ledecky and Leah Smith, the squad should be even faster this year.
With Katie McLaughlin in Schmitt's place—and swimming the slowest time of the quartet—Team USA won gold by more than three seconds at the 2015 world championships in Kazan, Russia. Schmitt was nearly two full seconds faster than McLaughlin in the finals of the U.S. trials and holds the American record in the individual 200-meter free, so the team should be even further ahead of the competition in Rio with that switch.
Franklin won four golds at the 2012 Olympics and is the name in women's swimming that most Americans already know. Ledecky will take that throne this year and likely hold it for a decade.
But keep an eye on Smith, too, who had a fantastic showing at the U.S. trials. In both the 400-meter and 800-meter free, she's arguably the favorite for the silver medal behind Ledecky and might be the second-strongest leg in this relay event.
5. Women's Soccer
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The U.S. men's soccer team failed to qualify for the Olympics for the second straight time, but the United States women's national team (USWNT) will be the one to beat in Rio.
Dating back to 1991, the USWNT has four gold medals, one silver medal, three World Cup championships and four other top-three finishes in the World Cup. In other words, they've come in third place or better in 12 consecutive world championships, winning more than half of those events.
The past 12 months haven't been any different. Since winning the 2015 World Cup last July, the USWNT has played 24 matches between friendlies, Olympic qualifiers and the SheBelieves Cup. The team went 21-1-2 in those matches with a cumulative score of 92-9.
Between Leicester City winning the Premier League title and Wales advancing to the semifinals of the UEFA European Championship, 2016 has been a wildly unpredictable year for international futbol. But look for Carli Lloyd, Alex Morgan and Hope Solo to take care of business in Rio.
4. Women's Team and All-Around Gymnastics
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With Simone Biles leading the way, it's hard to imagine an outcome where the U.S. women's gymnastics team fails to win at least one gold medal.
On an individual basis, Biles has won gold in both the floor exercise and the all-around in three consecutive World Championships. She also won gold on balance beam in both 2014 and 2015 and is arguably Team USA's best chance for gold on vault.
The Americans also have Madison Kocian's 2015 gold medal on the uneven bars, Gabby Douglas as the reigning Olympic all-around gold medalist, Aly Raisman's 2012 Olympic medals in floor exercise and balance beam, and 16-year-old rising star Laurie Hernandez, who could be used on any or all of the apparatuses.
Beyond Kocian, Team USA is weak on the uneven bars, which could keep it from winning the team gold medal. But of the six gymnastic golds up for grabs—team, individual all-around, floor exercise, balance beam, uneven bars and vault—it's a safe bet Team USA claims at least two.
3. Men's Decathlon (Ashton Eaton)
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According to Alltime-Athletics.com, Ashton Eaton has the two highest decathlon scores ever, as well as a total of six of the top 50 scores. Eaton is the only decathlete since 2010 to post a score of 8,700 or higher, and he has done so six times, winning gold at the 2012 Olympics, as well as the 2013 and 2015 World Championships.
As proof that he's still getting better, Eaton set a world record with a score of 9,045 at the 2015 World Championships in Beijing. He placed first in the 100-meter dash, 400-meter relay and long jump. He also placed in the top five in the 1,500-meter run, 110-meter hurdles, pole vault and javelin throw.
He dominated the competition, winning gold by 350 points.
The only reason Eaton isn't No. 1 is he has to avoid disaster 10 times and isn't typically among the best at the throwing events. Even in winning gold at the 2012 Olympics, he was ninth out of 31 in javelin, 10th in shot put and 22nd in discus throw.
He should dominate most of the running and jumping events, but one misstep could be enough to bump him to a silver.
2. Women's Basketball
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Team USA's men's basketball team has been great, but the women's team has been downright unstoppable.
It's won five consecutive gold medals. In the process, it did not lose a game, so the Americans are 40-0 in the Olympics since 1996. Moreover, only one of those games (a 66-62 win over Russia in the 2004 semifinals) was decided by a margin of 10 points or fewer.
Even mighty Connecticut has faced some challenges during each of its perfect college basketball seasons in recent years, but Team USA is undefeated with an average margin of victory of 29.2 points over the past two decades.
And it didn't even have Breanna Stewart, Elena Delle Donne or Brittney Griner on any of those teams.
The Americans always win comfortably, but this year could be a real bloodbath. Never mind just winning the gold medal—they might win the final game by a margin of more than 36 points, which is how badly they whooped previously unbeaten France in the 2012 gold-medal game.
1. Women's 800-Meter Free (Katie Ledecky)
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In the women's 800 freestyle, it's Katie Ledecky's gold to lose and a bunch of mortals fighting for silver.
Ledecky was only 15 when she won gold in the event at the 2012 Summer Olympics, finishing more than four seconds ahead of silver medalist Mireia Belmonte Garcia, whose time in that swim still stands as Spain's national record.
And since then, Ledecky has only gotten faster and stronger.
Her 8:14.63 was good enough for gold in 2012, but if she swims that in Rio, we'll have to wonder if she's fatigued. At the U.S. trials in early July, she swam an 8:10.32, good for nearly 10 full seconds ahead of second-place finisher Leah Smith.
In August 2015, at the World Championships in Kazan, Russia, Ledecky set the world record for the 800 free with a time of 8:07.39—more than 10 seconds better than the runner-up.
There will be wider margins of victory in other sports, but for Ledecky to consistently be 2 percent better than the world's next-best challenger is incredible. She's going to win the gold in the 800 free—and probably three or four other events. The only question is whether she'll break her own record in the process.
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