German Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Hockenheim Race
The 12th round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's German Grand Prix at the Hockenheim circuit, where Nico Rosberg will need to halt the slide.
The German established a 43-point advantage over Lewis Hamilton after winning the opening four races of the year, but now he finds himself six points adrift of his Mercedes team-mate having been restricted to just three podium appearances in the last seven races.
With Hamilton enjoying his best run of form since last autumn, and given the three-time world champion's habit of producing his best performances in the second half of a season, Rosberg simply must hit back before F1 enters its monthlong summer break.
With a look at a surprise podium finisher, potential accidents for Red Bull and Sauber and another points finish for the smallest team on the grid, here are five predictions for Hockenheim.
Nico Rosberg Will Win from Pole Position to Retake Championship Lead
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When Hamilton crossed the line to win the British GP for a fourth time, it didn't take long for the three-time world champion to engage in a spot of crowdsurfing, creating one of the defining images of 2016.
If Rosberg were to perform a similar stunt at his own home race this weekend, the Hockenheim crowd would probably drop him.
As noted by Declan Quigley for James Allen on F1, the sport has suffered a dramatic fall in popularity in Germany since the retirement of Michael Schumacher at the end of 2012, with falling attendance and television figures contributing to the country's absence from last season's calendar.
Most of the German drivers to compete in F1 in the modern era—including Rosberg, Sebastian Vettel, Nico Hulkenberg and Pascal Wehrlein as well as older faces like Nick Heidfeld, Timo Glock and Adrian Sutil—were directly influenced by Schumacher's success.
But none of them have been able to capture the hearts and minds of the public in the style of the seven-time world champion.
If Rosberg is to stand a chance of winning this year's championship, however, he will have to channel the spirit of his former Mercedes team-mate.
Forty-three points ahead of Hamilton just two months ago, he has been punted back into his natural position of second in the drivers' championship after the No. 44 car's fifth win in six races in Hungary.
In 2014 and '15, Rosberg entered the summer break on the back of frustrating, so-near-yet-so-far weekends that seemed to affect his approach to the second half of the season, when Hamilton has traditionally performed at his strongest.
If he can complete a second pole-to-flag win in three years at his home race, it could provide Rosberg with the confidence he will require to take the title fight as deep into the campaign as possible.
It's time to become a hero. A national hero.
Sergio Perez Will Secure Another Podium for Force India
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What a strange season 2016 is turning into for Force India.
On their good days—think Sergio Perez's podium finishes in Monaco and Azerbaijan as well as his drive to sixth at Silverstone—the team have been capable of stunning giant-killing acts, securing some of the best results in their eight-year history.
But on the weekends to forget—see Bahrain, China and Austria—both Perez and Hulkenberg have been almost anonymous, trapped in the mediocrity of the midfield.
The good news is that the peaks have far outweighed the troughs thus far, with Force India now within striking distance of fellow Mercedes customers Williams—who have been even more inconsistent—in the fight for fourth place in the constructors' standings.
Even better is the fact that Force India's form has fluctuated on an almost weekly basis since Monte Carlo, and after a disappointing weekend in Hungary, they are due another strong result in Germany.
With Hockenheim featuring high-speed and technical sections, the VJM09—a good all-round car with no significant vices—should perform well at a circuit where Force India have scored a total of just nine points in their four previous visits.
While a smooth track surface limits tyre wear and degradation, according to Pirelli's race preview, preserving the rear tyres in the traction zones is crucial, which could offer another opportunity for Perez, renowned for his Jenson Button-esque application of the throttle pedal.
He may require a slice of luck—a bold strategy or a well-timed safety car—but Perez will equal his career-best tally of three podium finishes in a season in Germany.
And he'll move Force India ever closer to their best-ever constructors' championship result.
Max Verstappen Will Spark a Sizable Accident on the Long Back Straight
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If they know they can, they will.
In three of the last five races—Canada, Britain and Hungary—the FIA stewards could have easily warned, investigated and/or penalised Max Verstappen for the hide-behind-the-sofa tactics he has employed while defending from other drivers.
Complaints over pit-to-car radio by Rosberg (Silverstone) and Kimi Raikkonen (Budapest) have brought Verstappen's habit of moving twice in the braking zone to the attention of the wider world, but still the FIA has made no attempt to put an end to such manoeuvres.
As team principal Maurizio Arrivabene explained, per Autosport (h/t Eurosport), Ferrari complained about the Red Bull driver during Raikkonen's battle with Verstappen in Hungary, where the pair collided at Turn 2 and came dangerously close to doing so again at Turn 1.
Rather than taking action, however, Arrivabene said race director Charlie Whiting—having looked "carefully at the images"—was satisfied Verstappen made "only one move."
As with its decision to allow Rosberg to retain pole position at the Hungaroring, the FIA's reluctance to stifle Verstappen's aggression risks setting a dangerous precedent and could eventually result in a large accident.
While Verstappen's manoeuvres at Montreal, Silverstone and Budapest took place on straight straights, the main overtaking spot at Hockenheim is found on a long back stretch that bends quite substantially to the left—so much so that the kink halfway along the straight is known as Turn 5.
With that part of the track home to a DRS zone, it would take only a slight misjudgment or lack of communication for two cars to come together on the approach to the Turn 6 hairpin, where speeds peak at 330 km/h, per Williams' official website.
Here's hoping the stewards erase the only significant flaw from Verstappen's driving before it's too late.
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Sauber's Marcus Ericsson Will Spin out at the Final Corner
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Forced to start the last two races from the pit lane, Marcus Ericsson has spent much of his time pointing in the wrong direction in recent weeks.
His heavy crash on the exit of Stowe on Saturday morning at Silverstone left the Swede requiring a trip to hospital on qualifying day, with his retirement after just 11 laps of the British GP only adding insult to his minor injuries.
After that bruising weekend, the heavy rain at the beginning of qualifying in Hungary offered Ericsson and team-mate Felipe Nasr a chance to secure Sauber's best qualifying result of 2016.
But while the Brazilian took advantage of the rain to drag the team into Q2 for the first time since Azerbaijan, Ericsson was among those caught out in the slippery conditions, losing control on the entry into Turn 10 and burying his car underneath the crash barriers.
With Sauber's change of ownership confirmed ahead of the Budapest weekend, the team's future appears to be bright, but Ericsson's personal misery will continue at the German GP, where he will suffer a traditional Hockenheim accident.
The final corner requires the drivers to accelerate while the car is under load, with oversteer moments common as they propel themselves onto the pit straight.
With Sauber's C35 lacking the downforce of their rivals, the car is bound to be quite a handful at Turn 17—particularly in the hands of Ericsson, who is among the spikier drivers on the current grid.
At best, he will live to fight another day after a relatively minor spin on the exit. At worst, he will produce a carbon copy of Glock's spectacular shunt during the 2008 race.
Hockenheim Expert Pascal Wehrlein Will Add to Manor's Points Tally
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When Wehrlein ended Manor's two-year wait for a points finish in Austria, much was made of the fact that the Red Bull Ring was the first venue on the 2016 calendar where he had raced before.
Forced to learn on the job during weekends in far-flung places such as Bahrain, China, Russia and Canada, the German could rely on his previous experience at the Spielberg circuit, where he equalled Manor's best-ever qualifying result of 12th before finishing 10th the following day.
If that really was the case, Wehrlein should be almost untouchable at Hockenheim, where he effectively grew tall as a racing driver.
Every series he has competed in since 2012—the Formula Three Euro Series, the FIA European Formula Three Championship and the DTM—have their seasons bookended by rounds at Hockenheim, where Wehrlein has started as many as 18 races over the last four years alone.
With the track's smooth surface limiting the effect of degradation, Manor's inherent problems with tyre management—as was the case on the freshly relaid circuit in Austria—may be concealed at a venue where the Mercedes-powered teams should all target the top 10.
In the immediate aftermath of the Spielberg celebrations, Manor boss Dave Ryan challenged his team to refrain from sitting back and—rather than falling into the trap of defending their slender lead over Sauber—"push, and push, and push" for more points, per Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble.
Wehrlein will continue that push this weekend, when he will prove home advantage really does count.
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