Matches to Make After UFC on Fox 20
UFC on Fox 20 hit Chicago, and the main event featured another bantamweight shake-up.
Valentina Shevchenko up-ended Holly Holm by unanimous decision. Ever since Holm's stunning KO of Ronda Rousey, the division has been topsy-turvy. This is just another cog in that wheel. Shevchenko's fantastic counter-striking game propelled her to a new level.
In the co-main event, Edson Barboza defeated Gilbert Melendez in a battle of elite lightweights.
The event started with a fun few bouts, hit a slow-moving middle and finished with some top-end performances from the elite of their respective divisions. UFC on Fox 20 gave fans a little taste of everything that MMA offers.
So, what's next? That's always the question. MMA never rests, and UFC matchmakers Joe Silva and Sean Shelby have the toughest job in the sport.
These are the matches to make for the UFC matchmakers to book moving forward.
UFC Fight Pass Prelims
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Luis Henrique def. Dmitrii Smoliakov via submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:58 of the second round
Henrique looked much improved against a skilled grappler in Smoliakov. He is a good prospect in the heavyweight division.
Smoliakov's next outing could be against Aleksei Oleinik. It would fit in nicely on a European undercard. Meanwhile, Henrique should be pitted against Adam Milstead. Milstead won his UFC debut in May and has won eight straight. Henrique should be brought along slowly as a young fighter in the division.
Jason Knight def. Jim Alers by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Knight was one of the stars of the event. He put on a show alongside Alers and looked much improved from his previous outing. Alers, winless in his last three fights, should still earn another UFC bout after the entertaining fight.
Alers' next opponent will be a low-level fighter. Damon Jackson is also winless in his last three. Make that fight and send the loser on his way out of the organization.
UFC matchmakers should look at any fight that would be entertaining. Given Knight's length and excellent rubber guard, Dan Hooker is the fight that makes the most sense. It could be a Fight of the Night darkhorse on any event it gets put on as a prelim bout. It would be a lot of fun to watch.
Alex Oliveira def. James Moontasri by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-25)
Moontasri is a fun fighter to watch, but his grappling is still lacking. Oliveira dominated him once he got in close.
Perhaps the best option for Moontasri's next fight would be a debuting welterweight or Randy Brown. Moontasri is so fun to watch it is tough put him against another grappler. It will be interesting to see how they handle his next fight, and it will be very telling of how they view his place on the roster.
Oliveira has some very good skills, and he is one of the most exciting members of the roster. He has only lost in two short notice fights. The UFC could give him another step up in competition, and it would be totally warranted. That is a bit premature.
Oliveira needs at least one more shining performance against a mid-tier welterweight. A fight against Keita Nakamura would be the best plan. If Oliveira comes through in flying colors again, then it will be time for another upper echelon matchup.
Fox Prelims
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Michel Prazeres def. J.C. Cottrell by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Cottrell took the fight on short notice, and his performance showed as much. Darrell Horcher was in a similar spot in his debut, but he showed a bit more. Pit the two against one another on a Fight Pass prelim.
Prazeres won, but it wasn't the most exciting performance. He was originally scheduled to fight Tony Martin. Re-book that fight. Prazeres didn't earn a step up in Chicago.
Kamaru Usman def. Alexander Yakovlev by unanimous decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-25)
Yakovlev will go back to the end of the line. He struggled against another strong grappler, and he needs to improve there before moving onward in the division. Lyman Good is still around, and Yakovlev makes for a good opponent for his return.
Usman is still improving. The name that first came to mind to continue pushing Usman was Ryan LaFlare. Ironically, that is who Usman replaced at UFC on Fox 20 against Yakovlev. The fight makes even more sense after recalling that fact. LaFlare's style won't make it a barnburner of a fight, but it will force Usman to be on his A-game.
Darren Elkins def. Godofredo Pepey by unanimous decision (29-27, 29-27, 30-26)
Pepey is a fun and talented fighter, but he continually fell right into Elkins' traps. Low fight IQ and lackluster takedown defense are worrisome. Phillipe Nover would make for a good rebound opponent.
Elkins could argue for a top 10 fight, but with a style that isn't very appealing it's a tough sell in the deep waters of the featherweight division. Instead, Elkins could be used as a stiff test for a rising star in Dooho Choi. A victory would ensure a top 10 fight for Elkins.
Eddie Wineland def. Frankie Saenz by TKO at 1:54 of the third round
Wineland looked to be back on form with a stellar showing against Saenz. He was patient throughout, and he knew when to go in for the finish. Saenz struggled to find his range all fight long rendering him ineffective.
Saenz should take on Rob Font next. It's a stylistic matchup that should be appealing to fans. The winner moves back into position to challenge someone on the back end of the top 15.
Wineland will be looking at a top 10-level fight. The available names that make sense are Aljamain Sterling and Michael McDonald. The latter makes more sense, and would be a much more entertaining fight. Sterling's grappling acumen makes him a less-likely option.
McDonald vs. Wineland is a stellar fight to book.
Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran
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Felice Herrig def. Kailin Curran via submission (rear-naked choke) at 1:59 of the first round
Without question, the performance by Herrig was the best of her entire fight career. She blew through Curran in the opening fight of the main card.
Curran's status as a prospect was not entirely wiped away, but it took a major blow. She wasn't competitive and now moves to 1-3 in the UFC. Perhaps the only option for the UFC is a fight against Nina Ansaroff. The loser would almost certainly be cut following the event.
Herrig's showing puts her back in position for a primetime fight in the division. How far up the division they go will be the key to how quickly she can become a contender. They could identify Claudia Gadelha, but that is likely a bit too lofty with just one win.
Jessica Aguilar is a name that glows off the list of possible fights. She is another longtime veteran and is in a similar position as Herrig. As the division gets a bit younger, pitting two veterans against one another helps keep it moving forward.
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Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlovic
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Francis Ngannou def. Bojan Mihajlovic by TKO at 1:34 of the first round
This looked like a spotlight fight for Ngannou, and that is exactly what it turned out to be.
Mihajlovic did not show much of anything in his UFC debut. He could fight any low-level heavyweight coming off a loss or a debuting fighter on a future card. The latter would make more sense for a European event in late 2016 or early 2017.
Booking Ngannou's next fight is more difficult than it may seem. After three impressive showings it is logical to want a big step up in competition, but rushing Ngannou up the ranks could be more harmful than needed. The heavyweight division is actually quite jam-packed at the top end. There is no immediate need to rush Ngannou.
Still, he does need more cage time against better opposition.
Stefan Struve looks to be the best option. He is not a top-contender, he doesn't have big momentum behind him and he has tools that will challenge Ngannou. It's the best heavyweight matchup to push Ngannou while not ruining his potential.
Add that fight to UFC 203 as a featured prelim.
Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
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Edson Barboza def. Gilbert Melendez by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Barboza did what he does best: leg kicks. Barboza brutalized Melendez's legs throughout the fight, and the accumulation caused Melendez to be very ineffective in the third round.
Melendez had his shot to finish the fight in the second round. He rocked Barboza, but instead of letting his hands go in an attempt to stop Barboza, he opted for a takedown attempt. Barboza defended it, and Melendez never had another shot.
The former Strikeforce champion is still an elite lightweight. His UFC losses have all come to the upper echelon in competitive fights. But another loss forces him to another mid-tier fight. A fight that could fit the bill, if the UFC does not cut him, is Takanori Gomi.
It would be a battle of two veterans with name value and both with a propensity to brawl.
Barboza has put himself in the title hunt. A fight against Rafael dos Anjos makes the most sense. dos Anjos is coming off losing his title to Eddie Alvarez, and a meeting with Barboza is a perfect fit for both men. There are other options such as a rematch with Tony Ferguson, but dos Anjos is the selection the UFC should go with for Barboza's next outing.
Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
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Valentina Shevchenko def. Holly Holm by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
The main event was pivotal for a variety of reasons. Holm could have established herself as the top contender with Amanda Nunes leading the division following UFC 200, Shevchenko could establish herself as a top name, and contenders Ronda Rousey & Julianna Pena would be interested observers.
Shevchenko, a former multiple-time Muay Thai world champion, would end up running away with a decision after five rounds of action.
Holm couldn't find consistent success with her gameplan, and she made little adjustments in the championship rounds. Shevchenko, on the other hand, found her range while counter-striking. Holm was repeatedly tagged as she pressed forward. Shevchenko rolled in a crucial matchup.
Holm, with back-to-back losses, will go back to the drawing board. She should not be in immediate contention. The best option would be Marion Reneau. It's a striker vs. striker matchup that likely favors Holm. Reneau is coming off a controversial decision loss to Ashlee Evans-Smith.
Yes, they did meet in 2015 with Holm getting the win. However, the former champion should not be fighting anyone in the top 10 as she looks to rebuild her brand. No better option than Reneau under the given circumstances for both women.
Shevchenko has a legitimate case to face the new champion. She narrowly lost to Nunes at UFC 196, and was picking up steam in the third round. Given two more rounds to work, Shevchenko could grab UFC gold. But she is not at the front of the line.
Pena should be the next title contender. That leaves Shevchenko chasing the shot after her. Her next opponent won't be Rousey either. If you look at the UFC rankings and remove all these names it only leaves one top-five ranked fighter—Miesha Tate.
Tate will be looking for her rematch as well. Shevchenko vs. Tate is a title eliminator to make with Rousey on the shelf. It could headline any non-PPV event, or be an excellent co-main event in the fall.
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