Why Wes Welker Isn't the Answer to Tom Brady's Woes

I'll admit it's an odd sight, watching Tom Brady struggle.

With the obvious exception of last season, football fans have watched Brady play rather well since he first began starting for the injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001.

Until 2007 he was never a "blow the doors off" quarterback. He'd have some big games, and certainly some big drives, but he was a smart, deadly efficient quarterback who wouldn't kill you with mistakes.

Then Randy Moss and Wes Welker came to town, and history was made.

But watching Brady perform poorly now—missing receivers, sailing some balls, looking unsure of himself at times—many people I've heard from or talk to simply assume that once Welker gets back, everything will be hunky-dory.

Why?

Within 20 yards, Brady's been looking better and better as the weeks have worn on. But you can tell that the big piece that is missing so far is the deep ball.

The Patriots tried to come out and work in the long ball early against the Falcons but missed twice on the opening drive to Joey Galloway and Moss.

On the first play of the second drive, Brady tried again, and again he missed Moss. On the fourth drive he tried twice more, for two more incompletions. 

Some were drops, some were underthrown, but all five fell incomplete.

So far this season Brady has yet to complete a single pass play that resulted in more than 40 yards, and only six plays have gone for more than 20, among the worst in the league.

The assumption is that with Welker back in the offense, teams will have to pay greater attention to him and give up the deep ball.

But in 223 receptions for the New England Patriots, Welker's longest play is only 64 yards, his only reception longer than 40 yards. In 2007 and 2008 he finished with only 17 catches for longer than 20 and only five longer than 30, including his 64-yarder.

I don't want to downplay Welker's talents as a receiver, but he's better served as an underneath slot receiver. With just four defensive backs on the field in most normal packages, Welker often gets matched up with linebackers, allowing him to be open so frequently.

But unless the Patriots plan to use him in a way that is entirely different from what they've done in the past, I don't see Welker's presence suddenly allowing Brady to hit his outside receivers on the type of long pass plays that open up a defense.

Even in the red zone, where Brady has struggled the most, I just don't see Welker being the salve that people seem to assume he'll be. He had eight scores in 2007, sure, but just three last year.

With Ben Watson and Chris Baker in New England catching touchdowns, not to mention an improved run game, it's not like Brady's short for targets.

Brady's hardly been awful this year. In fact, if you look at all the metrics that rate him alongside the "average" passer in all the typical categories (courtesy Pro-Football-Reference.com), he's actual been decidedly average.

But still, seeing an average Brady is just plain weird.

This year Brady's longest pass came on a broken play to Chris Baker up the sideline last weekend. It went for 36 yards and a touchdown, but it came when Chris Baker, running what looked like a 10-yard out route, reached the sideline and, since he hadn't gotten the ball yet, turned upfield. 

Brady saw him, threw it, and got the long completion, but it wasn't in the playbook.

It's a good sign that Brady had tons of time against the Falcons to throw the ball, but it's not good that he didn't use that time to hit on more long pass plays.

You can talk about his chemistry with Galloway not being up to par, but he missed Moss as well, underthrowing a sure touchdown pass that even Chris Collinsworth put in the "easy completion two years ago" category.

Even with Welker back, I'm not sure that category won't keep filling up for the next few weeks.