Top 25 Golfers Heading into the 2016 PGA Championship
Baltusrol Golf Club, which was named after Baltus Roll, a farmer who owned the land where the club sits (and was murdered there), plays host to the PGA Championship this week. Phil Mickelson won the Wanamaker in 2005, the last time the tournament was contested at Baltusrol. Lefty finished at four-under, and only nine players finished under par.
Because the PGA of America doesn't favor one type of track in particular or set up a course in a consistent way (in comparison to the rock-hard-and-lightning-fast preference of the USGA or the distinct elements of links golf at Open Championship venues), past PGA Championship performance in general isn't a great predictor of future success. The courses generally play tougher than average, to be sure, but performance at a venue like Muirfield Village or Doral this year is a better predictor of success than past PGA Championship finishes.
Thus, we'll look at how players fared at the course in 2005, how they've performed recently, key statistical indicators and Official World Golf Ranking in compiling the top 25 golfers ahead of the PGA Championship.
Sound good? Let's move on to the full rundown.
25. Lee Westwood
1 of 25
OWGR: 39
Best of 2016: With top-15 finishes in his last four European Tour starts and a tie for second at the Masters, Lee Westwood has shown plenty of game this season. He tied for 22nd at one over par at The Open.
Why he's here: A perennially steady performer in major championships, Westwood just showed he still has major mettle at 43 years of age. The lack of top-tier finishes on the PGA Tour this season keeps him from placing higher in this ranking, although his tie for 17th at Baltusrol in 2005 is a boon.
2005 at Baltusrol: T-17 (+2)
24. Danny Willett
2 of 25
OWGR: 9
Best of 2016: A surprise Masters winner, Danny Willett has made seven of eight cuts with four top-25 finishes. Willett tied for 53rd at The Open in his most recent action.
Why he's here: Willett edges out Westwood thanks to the big W at Augusta. He’s been a more consistently solid performer over the past year, which also gives him a leg up, as does his impressive 1.223 strokes gained from tee to green this year.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
23. Louis Oosthuizen
3 of 25
OWGR: 15
Best of 2016: Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut at The Open Championship. He's made eight of 12 cuts on the PGA Tour with a pair of top-10 finishes. Prior to The Open, Oosthuizen finished inside the top 25 at the U.S. Open and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Why he's here: Tossing The Open out, Oosthuizen has a pair of big finishes recently that make him an alluring play. While Willett has the big win this season, Oosthuizen, a veteran, has a history of solid major performances, including top-30s in his last three PGA Championships.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
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22. Brooks Koepka
4 of 25
OWGR: 18
Best of 2016: Prior to withdrawing from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with injury, Brooks Koepka had been in fine form, following a pair of second-place finishes with a tie for 13th at the U.S. Open. He passed on the Open Championship in order to rest, so there are questions about his health entering the PGA Championship.
Why he's here: Koepka's fourth-place position in strokes gained from tee to green this season speaks to the overall quality of his ball-striking, which will be key at Baltusrol. Accordingly, he's slotted ahead of Oosthuizen.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
21. Hideki Matsuyama
5 of 25
OWGR: 19
Best of 2016: Matsuyama has struggled as of late, missing the cut at The Open Championship the last time he teed it up. He won the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February and tied for seventh at the Masters. He's totaled five top-10 finishes this year.
Why he's here: Off his game recently, the quality of Matsuyama's play over the last year, as well his position at 14th in total strokes gained, indicates his baseline aptitude. Assuming he's straightened a few things out ahead of the season's fourth major, Matsuyama should outperform the players listed thus far.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
20. Martin Kaymer
6 of 25
OWGR: 51
Best of 2016: Kaymer has been playing primarily on the European Tour this season, so he's been under the radar of many golf fans. Still, the German has top-10 finishes in four of his five most recent European Tour starts. He tied for 36th at The Open.
Why he's here: Kaymer did decent work at The Open and seems to be cresting at the moment in a way that Matsuyama isn't. To the extent that there are any similarities between PGA Championship venues, it's worth noting that Kaymer won the 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
19. J.B. Holmes
7 of 25
OWGR: 16
Best of 2016: Holmes finished third at The Open Championship, well behind Mickelson and Henrik Stenson, however. He's made 13 of 15 cuts with nine top-25 finishes, including a tie for fourth at the Memorial recently.
Why he's here: Strong at Royal Troon. Strong at the Memorial. Holmes, the tour's leader in driving distance, is sixth in total strokes gained. Better play at big venues and stellar tee-to-green play this year puts him ahead of Kaymer.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
18. Brandt Snedeker
8 of 25
OWGR: 21
Best of 2016: Snedeker will enter the PGA Championship off an inspired week north of the border at the RBC Canadian Open. He's made 14 of 20 cuts, with six top-10 finishes. He's finished inside the top 25 in his three most recent starts.
Why he's here: Snedeker has had an up-and-down season, but he's surging currently. A veteran of nine PGA Championships, he has a steady hand in golf's most significant events. The stellar recent form places him ahead of Holmes.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
17. Jim Furyk
9 of 25
OWGR: 22
Best of 2016: While he's missed quite a bit of action due to injury and recovery from wrist surgery, Jim Furyk has turned in a few solid performances, including a tie for second at the U.S. Open. Furyk tied for 59th at The Open before notching a top-20 finish at the Canadian Open.
Why he's here: Jim Furyk's pedigree and strong performance his last time out are big factors in his ranking. Past experience at Baltusrol helps as well.
2005 at Baltusrol: T-34 (+5)
16. Branden Grace
10 of 25
OWGR: 12
Best of 2016: Branden Grace won the RBC Heritage earlier this year. The South African has tallied an additional four top-10 finishes, missing just two cuts in 13 starts. He tied for fifth at the U.S. Open but didn't impress at The Open, where he finished tied for 72nd.
Why he's here: Looking past his poor showing at The Open, Branden Grace has been a solid B-level performer this year. He's 17th on tour in total strokes gained, making his positioning in that range on this ranking seem all the more appropriate.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
15. Rickie Fowler
11 of 25
OWGR: 7
Best of 2016: Fowler tied for 46th at The Open in his most recent start. He's recorded seven top-10 finishes in 17 starts but has missed the cut in three of his last six starts. He finished second at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February and won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship on the European Tour.
Why he's here: The results haven't been first-rate for Fowler of late, but he's eighth on tour in total strokes gained, which attests to the overall quality of his play. He's turned a corner with recent play and has a major pedigree that makes a top-15 finish at Baltusrol likely.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
14. Zach Johnson
12 of 25
OWGR: 20
Best of 2016: Zach Johnson has made 15 of 18 cuts with five top-10 finishes on tour this season. He tied for eighth at the U.S. Open and 10th at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He tied for 12th at The Open Championship at one under par.
Why he's here: ZJ has done good work in the last two majors and did well for himself at Baltusrol in 2005. It's difficult to see the sure-handed Iowan fail to finish inside the top 15 in New Jersey.
2005 at Baltusrol: T-17 (+2)
13. Charl Schwartzel
13 of 25
OWGR: 23
Best of 2016: Valspar Championship winner Charl Schwartzel has tallied three top-10 finishes in 14 starts this year. Prior to tying for 18th at The Open Championship, Schwartzel tied for seventh at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Why he's here: An equipment switch didn't hold Schwartzel back at Royal Troon, where he continued a trend of strong play. He's ninth on tour in total strokes gained.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
12. Patrick Reed
14 of 25
OWGR: 14
Best of 2016: Patrick Reed has made 18 of 21 cuts with nine top-10 finishes this season. With a pair of second-place finishes, Reed tied for 12th at The Open his last time out.
Why he's here: Good work at Royal Troon and a penchant for top-10 finishes suggest Reed is in form ahead of the PGA Championship. He's been on a high since finding out he made the Olympic squad. Expect that to continue at Baltusrol.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
11. Bubba Watson
15 of 25
OWGR: 6
Best of 2016: Bubba Watson didn't have his best stuff at The Open Championship, but he hasn't missed a cut this season and won the Northern Trust Open in February. He tied for 14th at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational prior to heading to Scotland.
Why he's here: Fifth on tour in strokes gained from tee to green, Bubba Watson's game is best suited to two majors: the Masters and the PGA Championship. His game is in decent shape. It's difficult to see him finishing too far outside the top 10 at Baltusrol.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
10. Justin Rose
16 of 25
OWGR: 11
Best of 2016: Tied for 22nd at The Open, Justin Rose has made 11 cuts in 14 PGA Tour starts with nine top-25 finishes. He finished third at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Why he's here: Justin Rose returned from an injury layoff at The Open and looked something like his old self. Assuming he continues to get in reps ahead of the final major of the year, he should be playing like the golfer who is fourth on tour in strokes gained from tee to green (which he is).
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
9. Sergio Garcia
17 of 25
OWGR: 10
Best of 2016: Sergio Garcia has made 11 of 12 cuts on tour this season. He won the AT&T Byron Nelson in a playoff, tied for fifth at the U.S. Open and followed that with a fifth-place finish at the BMW International Open. He tied for fifth at The Open his last time out.
Why he's here: Garcia edges out Rose due to better form recently and decent work at Baltusrol in 2005.
2005 at Baltusrol: T-23 (+3)
8. Adam Scott
18 of 25
OWGR: 8
Best of 2016: Adam Scott has won twice this season, in addition to locking up a pair of second-place finishes. He hasn't missed a cut in 15 starts and tied for 43rd at The Open in his latest action.
Why he's here: The tour leader in strokes gained from tee to green, the story will be the same for Scott at Baltusrol as it is everywhere else: If he can putt, he can win. Despite a failure to crack the top 10 since March, Scott is a bigger threat than Garcia if his putter cooperates.
2005 at Baltusrol: T-40 (+6)
7. Jordan Spieth
19 of 25
OWGR: 3
Best of 2016: Spieth has two wins this season, in addition to a heartbreaking tie for second at the Masters. He tied for 30th at The Open in his most recent action. He has 11 top-25 finishes.
Why he's here: Spieth is struggling with his swing right now, and his results haven't been stellar. Still, he's sixth on tour in total strokes gained. If he's had a good week of practice, a top-10 finish isn't out of the question.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
6. Matt Kuchar
20 of 25
OWGR: 17
Best of 2016: Still without a win this year, Matt Kuchar has been one of the steadiest golfers on tour. He's missed only one cut in 19 starts with three third-place finishes and nine top-10 finishes. Kuch has placed inside the top 10 in six of his last eight starts.
Why he's here: With a high percentage of top-10 finishes lately, including a first-rate performance at the Canadian Open, Matt Kuchar has been on form lately in a way Jordan Spieth hasn't, thus he edges him out.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
5. Phil Mickelson
21 of 25
OWGR: 13
Best of 2016: Mickelson has tallied 12 of 17 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with a trio of second-place finishes. His most recent came in dramatic fashion at The Open, where he came up just short behind Henrik Stenson.
Why he's here: Lefty hasn't done his best work across the whole of this season. However, his brilliance at The Open, coupled with the fact that he won at Baltusrol in 2005, earns him serious consideration ahead of the season's fourth major and a spot ahead of golfers who have done better work in 2016 and performed bigger statistically.
2005 at Baltusrol: 1 (-4)
4. Henrik Stenson
22 of 25
OWGR: 5
Best of 2016: Winner of The Open Championship and the BMW International Open recently, Stenson has recorded eight of 11 cuts on the PGA Tour this season. In addition to the wins, he finished second at the Shell Houston Open.
Why he's here: The Open champion, Stenson arrived at Royal Troon with a European Tour win newly in his rearview mirror. He's hot at the moment, but he has been outperformed over the longer run by the golfers ahead of him. Certainly he was a different player in 2005, but his previous finish at Baltusrol isn't encouraging.
2005 at Baltusrol: T-47 (+7)
3. Rory McIlroy
23 of 25
OWGR: 4
Best of 2016: Rory McIlroy sneaked inside the top five at Royal Troon amid a disappointing week. He finished third at the Open de France prior to that. The Ulsterman won the Irish Open, his season highlight, and has made 11 of 13 PGA Tour cuts with six top-10 finishes.
Why he's here: McIlroy fits in at the third spot after doing what he could with a bad draw at The Open. He's been a top-caliber performer this season with top-10 finishes in six of his last seven PGA Tour starts. The fourth-ranked golfer in the world, McIlroy is well-suited for the No. 3 spot.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
2. Jason Day
24 of 25
OWGR: 1
Best of 2016: A winner thrice this season, Jason Day has also recorded top-10 finishes in eight of his 15 PGA Tour starts this season. After tying for third at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Day tied for 22nd at The Open.
Why he's here: Day wasn't brilliant at Royal Troon, but he was on the wrong side of the draw. However, he's been one of the tour's best this year and didn't do anything in Canada to suggest he won't be a factor at Baltusrol. He's second on tour in total strokes gained.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
1. Dustin Johnson
25 of 25
OWGR: 2
Best of 2016: After thumping the field at the U.S. Open and collecting another win at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, DJ cooled a bit with a tie for ninth at The Open. He turned in another inspired performance at the RBC Canadian Open, however. He hasn't missed a cut this year and has posted top-10 finishes in 12 of his 17 starts.
Why he's here: Undone, really, by one hole at Royal Troon, playing a course that's not his style, Dustin Johnson's Open Championship performance can be discarded. With brilliant, overpower-the-course form recently, DJ is still the man by a healthy margin at the moment.
2005 at Baltusrol: Did not play
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