UFC on Fox 20: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC on Fox 20 goes down Saturday from the Windy City, also known as Chicago.
Chicago is also known as The City of Broad Shoulders. That image might have some traction in the camp of one Holly Holm, who appears to be carrying most, if not all, of this card on her shoulders.
It's a perilous position for Holm, who shocked the world with her knockout of Ronda Rousey in November 2015 but lost the UFC women's bantamweight title in March to Miesha Tate. Tate, as you'll recall, lost the title in her first defense to Amanda Nunes just two weeks ago at UFC 200.
In this main event, Holm faces a virtual unknown in Kyrgyzstan native Valentina Shevchenko. If she wins, she's back on track. If she loses, she'll be relegated, at least for a while, to the discount bin alongside Right Said Fred and Dexys Midnight Runners.
Whatever happens, it will happen in the main event on "big" Fox, and with the rest of the card not exactly glimmering with star power, it likely won't be diluted by another result with more immediate title ramifications.
So what's going to happen? And what are the stakes for the rest of the four-fight main card? It's a good thing you have the Bleacher Report MMA predictions team to take you through it all. Craig Amos. Steven Rondina. Sydnie Jones. Nathan McCarter. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran
1 of 4
Craig Amos
It feels likes Kailin Curran is starting to put it all together. After dropping her UFC debut, she dominated Alex Chambers, only to gift her opponent a late submission. After that lapse, she rebounded to stop Emily Kagan. Felice Herrig represents a tough challenge, but the veteran is beatable and is coming in after more than a year on the sidelines. The belief here is that Curran outhustles Herrig en route to a close decision win.
Curran, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
The ugly beginning to Curran's UFC career undermines some real skill and athleticism. This fight with the more popular Herrig will be her coming-out party as she overwhelms the prolific Instagrammer through all three rounds.
Curran, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
I like Herrig, and she's looking super ripped, but at this point, I don't know that being well-muscled and very lean to make 115 is a boon to her. Herrig is a competent grappler, durable and game to engage, but she's been around a long time without ever really taking off. Curran's pro career is only just recently going anywhere, and I don't see that petering out here.
Curran, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Herrig is a live dog here, as Curran hasn't blown anybody away, but what she does best is something Herrig struggles with—handling pressure. Herrig won't be able to find the consistent success while backpedaling. Curran takes this on the cards.
Curran, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Wow, look at this. It's Curran across the board. Count me as a dissenter. Herrig will rehydrate after what looks like a pretty steep weight cut and break Curran down with takedowns and top control.
Herrig, unanimous decision
Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlovic
2 of 4
Amos
Bojan Mihajlovic is making his UFC debut in the midst of a 10-fight win streak. That sounds impressive until you look at his hit list and see the records of his recent opponents. Francis Ngannou, who is emerging as one of the best up-and-coming heavyweights in the world, will end this one quickly.
Ngannou, TKO, Rd. 1
Rondina
Mihajlovic is getting a UFC on Fox main card fight in his UFC debut, and it isn't because they see big things in his future. Mihajlovic is getting a premium slot in his debut because the UFC is high on Ngannou and is confident the Frenchman can make an impression on fans. He will, by making an impression on Mihajlovic's face.
Ngannou, TKO, Rd. 1
Jones
I really don't have much to add to what Craig and Steven have said; Ngannou is a finisher, and Mihajlovic is in for an unpleasant awakening in his debut. His record may seem impressive, but Ngannou isn't a 0-4 opponent.
Ngannou, TKO, Rd. 1
McCarter
I was fortunate enough to be at Ngannou's first UFC fight week in Orlando, Florida, and at the weigh-ins he blew me away with his imposing figure. Then he affirmed how much of a brooding heavyweight he is with his performance. He's still developing, but he's a bright prospect. That's why he's here in this spot. If Mihajlovic came dressed as a lamb while sickles and machetes hung over a dimly lit Octagon, it'd be an apt setting for what is going to happen.
Ngannou, TKO, Rd. 1
Harris
I wanted to find a reason to at least try to give another side on Mihajlovic. I was unable to find such a reason. He's undersized, not especially skilled or athletic and has no notable victories on his 10-3 pro ledger. All signs point to this being a showcase fight for Ngannou. Of course, knowing MMA, that surely means the Serbian will submit him with a flying triangle, but I just can't make that prediction.
Ngannou, KO, Rd. 2
Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
3 of 4
Amos
The outcome of this fight will be determined by how successfully Gilbert Melendez can keep Edson Barboza against the fence and on the mat. If he's unable to contain the Brazilian striker, it'll be a long and painful evening. If he manages, then he'll have a happy return from his performance-enhancing drugs suspension and pull off the upset.
Melendez, unanimous decision
Rondina
Craig here is spot on. Melendez vs. Barboza will be entirely determined based on whether Barboza can keep away from Melendez's takedowns and clinch work. Where we break is the prediction. Barboza is nimble enough to stay on his bicycle, tag Melendez and score enough points to get the nod from the judges.
Barboza, unanimous decision
Jones
I really like Barboza; his gnarly stoppages by leg kicks are always mesmerizing in the worst/best way. It's gradual, calculated destruction, and you can see that accumulation happening in his opponents. Even against the likes of Melendez, Barboza is too crafty and inflicts enough damage that he can at least eke out a decision.
Barboza, unanimous decision
McCarter
Given how Melendez performed against Eddie Alvarez and how Barboza has looked recently, the smart pick would be on the Brazilian, especially considering Melendez loves to simply stand and strike instead of employ his wrestling. Even still, I'm taking Melendez. His grinding grappling will slow down Barboza enough for Melendez to slip by with a decision.
Melendez, unanimous decision
Harris
Looks like I'm casting the deciding vote. Give me Barboza. His last fight, a very impressive win over Anthony Pettis, was the best of his UFC career. He'll keep it going Saturday. Every respect to Melendez and his rock-solid game, but he won't have the speed. He won't be able to clinch up with Barboza or take him down, and he won't be able to win the standing exchanges. We'll have a new lightweight contender on Sunday.
Barboza, unanimous decision
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Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
4 of 4
Amos
Though only Holly Holm is a big name, both these women are fantastic strikers, and Valentina Shevchenko is actually more well-rounded. So will there be an upset? Don't count on it. Holm will hold serve, but it'll be closer than most expect.
Holm, unanimous decision
Rondina
Shevchenko's a tricky matchup for Holm due to her strong striking chops, no question. That said, Holm's good. Darn good. She should be able to tag Shevchenko from range, avoid counters and take this on the scorecards without much trouble.
Holm, unanimous decision
Jones
Shevchenko may be the first real striker Holm has faced in the UFC, so this fight has the potential to be interesting. Holm has a three-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage, and she'll use that to stay out of Shevchenko's range while tagging her.
Holm, unanimous decision
McCarter
I've been impressed with Shevchenko since her debut, but this is a big stylistic advantage for Holm. She'll go back to being a smart, calculated counterstriker in picking apart Shevchenko. And she has five rounds to find a finish. Shevchenko will need to turn into a pure grappler, and that won't be what gets her success here. Holm could win on points, but I think she finishes to get a title shot against Amanda Nunes.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 4
Harris
Holm was doing her counterstriking-and-circling thing pretty well against Tate until Tate dug deep and got the late chokeout. Shevchenko will have good days again, but this won't be one of those days. Here's guessing she puts in a game performance, but she won't have anything serious for a dedicated Holm facing a professional crossroads.
Holm, unanimous decision
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