Athletes Likely to Medal During Their Olympic Swan Song in Rio
Some outstanding athletes who have experienced considerable success in past Olympics will be participating in their final Summer Games in Rio, which start August 5. Many of them still have the skill to collect more medals in their last Olympic appearance.
We'll take a look at eight such competitors.
In many cases, it's not definite these athletes will sit out Tokyo 2020, so some informed guesswork is involved. This list intentionally focuses more on Americans, with all but one of the competitors representing the United States.
No more than one athlete from a given sport appears, which is why a person like 34-year-old sprinter Justin Gatlin isn't included.
Kristin Armstrong
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American cyclist Kristin Armstrong is 42 years old, and she has already retired twice. The guess is she will retire for a third and final time after completing her pursuit of a third straight gold medal in Rio.
Armstrong did not begin professional cycling until she was 29, according to Reuters' Scott Malone. But after she won the women's individual time-trial gold medal in the 2008 Olympics, she retired to start a family. Armstrong returned for the 2012 Games, won another gold medal in time trial and retired again.
Then, in April 2015, Armstrong announced her second return. She also acknowledged she had three hip surgeries in 2014, which delayed her comeback.
Winning any medal in Rio will be a challenge for Armstrong, but it is within reach. She finished third in the USA Cycling Professional Time Trial National Championship in May but still made the 2016 U.S. Olympic team. She will be the oldest U.S. Olympic cyclist ever.
Armstrong will turn 43 on August 11, the day after the women's individual time trial in Brazil.
Tony Azevedo
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Tony Azevedo is 34 years old and will compete in his fifth Olympics in Rio.
"I'm pretty sure this is my last one," he said in May, according to the Associated Press (via USA Today).
Azevedo has been a water polo star since his college days. He was the player of the year four times at Stanford, and the aforementioned Associated Press piece called him "one of the biggest names in" the sport.
Azevedo, the 2016 captain, led the U.S. to a silver medal in the 2008 Olympics. But he was also a member of the American squad that finished a disappointing eighth four years later in London.
The prospects for the U.S. to medal in Azevedo's final Olympics are promising. The U.S. men ranked fourth in the world in 2015, and the squad is second in the current world league rankings.
No. 1-ranked Serbia is considered the favorite in Rio, according to Rachel Axon of USA Today, but the Americans beat Serbia in four friendly exhibitions in 2015.
“I really feel that we’re the most dangerous team in the world,” Azevedo said, according to Axon.
Winning a medal in Brazil would bring Azevedo's career full circle. He was born in Rio de Janeiro, and he and his family have spent the past two years in Brazil while he plays professionally there.
Kerri Walsh Jennings
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Kerri Walsh Jennings is a 37-year-old with a history of shoulder problems. She will be 41 when the 2020 Olympics roll around, so this might be her final chance at a medal, even though she has not said anything publicly about retiring.
She will seek her fourth straight Olympic gold medal in beach volleyball in Rio, although she'll do it with a new partner. Misty May-Treanor was Walsh Jennings' running mate in all of her gold-medal bids, but May-Treanor retired after the 2012 Olympics.
Walsh Jennings then began to partner with April Ross, who, along with Jen Kessy, captured the silver medal in London four years ago.
It seems like a partnership destined for Olympic gold in 2016, but a couple of factors will make the task difficult.
For one thing, Walsh Jennings suffered a dislocated shoulder twice last year, which led to surgery. It was her fifth operation on the same shoulder, per Roxanna Scott of USA Today.
The other issue is a formidable Brazilian team that has the advantage of playing in its home country. Elliott Almond of the San Jose Mercury News wrote last month that Larissa Franca and Talita Antunes, who are ranked No. 1 in the world and hold a 4-1 record against Walsh Jennings and Ross, are the Olympic favorite.
The Americans are No. 2 in the FIVB beach volleyball season rankings, so they are in the medal mix.
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Venus Williams
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Venus Williams has been playing her best tennis in years, getting her WTA ranking up to No. 6.
She has no plans to retire, as World Tennis' Randy Walker relayed on June 27. However, Williams turned 36 in June, and as Walker wrote: "She couldn’t possibly still be playing pro tennis at age 40 during the Tokyo Olympics, could she? After the Rio Olympic Games, what does she have left to play for?"
Rio will be Williams' fifth Olympics, and logic suggests it will be her last. Logic also says Williams has a good chance to win a medal in Rio, possibly gold.
She won the singles gold medal in 2000 and took a doubles gold with her sister, Serena, in 2000, 2008 and 2012. Perhaps the chief reason Venus did not win a doubles medal in 2004 was Serena did not participate because of knee injury.
The Williams sisters seek a third consecutive doubles gold medal and fourth overall. Recent results suggest they may be the favorites, as they recently won their sixth Wimbledon doubles title.
The Rio tennis events will be played on hard courts, and that should suit the sisters, who have won six Grand Slam doubles titles on that surface.
Doubles is Venus' best chance for a medal, but her current ranking and semifinal berth at Wimbledon indicate she has a shot in singles.
Despite the debilitating effects of auto-immune disorder Sjogren’s Syndrome, Venus continues to play at the highest level at an advanced tennis age. But this may be her last Olympics appearance.
Aly Raisman
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Aly Raisman is 22, which is old for a female gymnast.
She is at least two years older than each of the other four members of the U.S. women's gymnastics team, and public perception of her Olympic chances was against her before the trials. A recent Associated Press story (h/t NBCOlympics.com) was titled: "Over 20 and 'too old,' Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas defy odds in second Olympic bid."
Those facts suggest Raisman is unlikely to make the 2020 Olympics, when she would be 26.
Also, following the 2012 Olympics, she contemplated whether she would try to make the 2016 squad for nearly a year. The necessary commitment is draining, and she noted in her first-person story on ESPN.com in April 2014 that she had developed outside interests, including her own leotard line and a spot on Dancing with the Stars after winning gold in London.
It is virtually impossible to believe she will return in 2020. And even if she tried, it would be difficult to think she would make the team at 26.
But she has a chance take at least one medal in 2016, perhaps several, and the team competition may be her best opportunity. In fact, Matthew Futterman of the Wall Street Journal noted, "The U.S. women are the defending team champions and a favorite to win again."
Raisman also could win individual honors. She placed third in the all-round competition and second in the floor exercise at the Olympic trials, and she was the gold medalist in the floor exercise at the 2012 Olympics. She won more medals (three) than Douglas (two) four years ago in London, although Douglas won the all-around gold.
These Olympics are likely the swan song for Douglas as well, but since her teammates call Raisman "grandma Aly," according to People magazine, she is singled out here for a farewell.
Usain Bolt
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Usain Bolt said in February 2015 he will retire following the 2017 World Championships, according to CNN.com. That would mean the Summer Games in Rio would be his final Olympics.
However, Bolt's comments in the Guardian this past May suggest he may reconsider that 2017 deadline: "I was always thinking it would be after the world championship next year but my coach keeps saying that I should stop saying that,” he said.
Even if he continues to compete, it would still be three more years before the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. Bolt will be a few days shy of his 34th birthday during the Tokyo Games, which makes it a long shot that his career will extend that far.
American sprinter Justin Gatlin is 34 and still competing at the highest level, so it is possible Bolt could run in the 2020 Olympics. But for now, we will assume Rio will be his Olympic farewell.
Bolt remains a strong contender to win at least one gold medal in Rio and could take as many as three. Gatlin is expected to give the Jamaican stiff competition in the 100-meter dash, but Bolt eked out a victory over Gatlin in that event in 2015 World Championships, winning by one-hundredth of a second. And Bolt's victory in the 200 was more convincing.
The one concern is the torn hamstring Bolt suffered in early July during the preliminary rounds of the Jamaican Olympic trials. He pulled out of the trials before running in any finals but later received a medical exemption, allowing him to be part of the Jamaican Olympic team.
In his first race since the injury, Bolt won the 200-meter dash in 19.89 seconds on July 22 in the Diamond League meet in London. It was not a fast time by Bolt's standards, and he told the BBC afterward (via NBCOlympics.com's Seth Rubinroit): "I’m getting there, I’m not fully in shape, I need more work, but over time I’ll be fine. The key thing is I came out injury-free.”
He should be in good enough shape to at least medal in both the 100 and 200, and he may win both. Jamaica has a shot to repeat as the Olympic champion in the 4x100 relay with Bolt running the anchor leg.
Tamika Catchings
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Tamika Catchings announced two years ago that she planned to retire after the 2016 Olympics, according to the Indianapolis Star. Her farewell tour in the WNBA is in full swing, and nothing she has said this summer suggests her plans have changed.
Catchings cleared the first hurdle in her pursuit of her fourth Olympic gold medal by making the 2016 USA Olympic squad. At 37 years of age, she is the oldest player on the roster. U.S. teammate Breanna Stewart was just nine years old when Catchings won her first Olympic gold medal.
Catchings' role will change this time around. A starter in the gold-medal title game against France in 2012, Catchings is expected to come off the bench in Rio. She played less than eight minutes in the Americans' exhibition victory over France on July 27.
Although her playing time is reduced, her chances of winning a gold medal in her Olympic swan song are not. The 22-point win over 2012 silver medalist France hints at how strong this American squad is.
The American women are shooting for their sixth straight Olympic gold medal, and they enter the Rio Games on a 41-game Olympic winning streak that dates back to their bronze-medal finish in 1992. They are the clear favorites this year, meaning that Catchings should win a medal, probably a gold, in her final Olympics.
Michael Phelps
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Michael Phelps announced his retirement after the 2012 Olympics, before deciding in April 2014 to return to competition, according to Associated Press (via ESPN.com). Presumably the 2016 Games in Rio, which will be Phelps' fifth Olympics, will be his last. Olympic.org reported Phelps is "adamant" that this will be his last Olympics.
There seems to be little doubt he will add to his Olympic-record 22 medals, and he is a good bet to add to his Olympic-record 18 gold medals.
Phelps will compete in three individual events: the 200-meter butterfly, the 100-meter butterfly and the 200-meter individual medley.
He will probably be the favorite to win each of the three in Rio based on four facts:
- He finished first in all three at the U.S. Olympic trials
- He holds the world record in both butterfly events
- He beat world-record-holder Ryan Lochte in the 200-meter individual medley at the Olympic trials
- He has won the gold medal in the 100 butterfly and 200 individual medley in each of the last three Olympics and won the 200 butterfly in two of those Olympics, missing a third by five-hundredths of a second after he misjudged his final stroke in 2012
In addition, Phelps could add as many as three medals in relay events.
At 31, he will be the focus of the swimming events at the Olympics, and it would be a major upset if he does not come away with a few more gold medals in his last hurrah.
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