2016 Fantasy Football: Hall of Fame Weekend Fantasy Notebook

I, like many of you, planned to watch the Hall of Fame Game between the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night and then share any observations I made in this very notebook. A bad paint job prevented that from happening.

Of course, I didn’t expect to get much out of the most meaningless game of the preseason, especially with stars like Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck watching from the sidelines, so the structure of this fantasy notebook won’t be changing too much. 

For the rest of August, I’ll be presenting these fantasy notebooks at the end of each preseason week with observations and analysis from each game as it pertains to fantasy status, changes in my player rankings and updated depth charts. Without a game to break down this week, that feature won’t debut until the end of the first full week of the preseason. 

A regular feature that will begin this week is updates and analysis on the most fantasy-relevant injuries, including an early preview of how I’ll be altering the rankings of those players in my weekly Big Board. Plus, I’ll take a look at the average draft position (ADP) of five players who may intrigue me for various reasons.

Because rankings are far from concrete this early in the preseason, I find myself concentrating on situations that are fluid, so for this week, you’ll get five to keep an eye on leading up to the regular season. 

Finally, I’ll be providing a tip of the week to finish out each fantasy notebook. This tip could be based on a question I’ve received multiple times about a position, player or draft strategy or from my own drafting experience. This week’s tip includes an anecdote from an industry draft I hosted over the weekend.

Injury Watch

Running Backs

Dion Lewis, NE (knee)—The Patriots have yet to activate Lewis from the active/physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which may be alarming to some, but according to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, Lewis is ready to practice. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com says Lewis didn’t suffer “any type of setback,” so his status on the PUP list is a matter of the team taking it slow.

Current Ranking: RB13

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: None

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Thomas Rawls, SEA (ankle)—The ankle fracture that ended Rawls’ season early last year doesn’t appear to be a problem anymore, as the Seahawks activated him from the active/PUP list. Head coach Pete Carroll said, “We’re not going to rush him at all,” per Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com.

Current Ranking: RB15

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: None

Jamaal Charles, KC (knee)—Charles remains on the active/PUP list coming off yet another torn ACL in 2015. The only hint of his status is the unofficial depth chart released by the team, which has Charles on top of the running back group, according to Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star. I still have concerns about head coach Andy Reid playing it safe with Charles with both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West in the mix.

Current Ranking: RB17

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: None

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson, GB (knees)—Nelson is coming back from a torn ACL in his right knee suffered almost a year ago, but according to Ed Werder of ESPN, his return has been delayed by tendinitis in his left knee from overcompensating during rehab. After the cancellation the Hall of Fame Game, Aaron Rodgers told Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Nelson “might be back next week.”

Current Ranking: WR13

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: None

Sammy Watkins, BUF (foot)—As expected, Watkins returned to action on Monday when the team announced he had passed his physical and removed from the active/PUP, according to Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com. I'll likely drop Watkins down a spot or two, but only because others have overtaken him in his absence.

Current Ranking: WR15

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: Slightly Down

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Julian Edelman, NE (foot)—A couple of foot surgeries have hampered Edelman over the last year, but he was in full pads for practice on Saturday and is off the active/PUP list, per CBS Boston.

Current Ranking: WR23

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: Up into Top 20 WRs

Jordan Matthews, PHI (knee)—According to head coach Doug Pederson, Matthews will miss "a couple weeks" with a knee injury he described as a "strain" without any "structural damage," per Zach Berman of The Philadelphia Inquirer. 

Current Ranking: WR29

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: Slightly Down

Tight Ends

Tyler Eifert, CIN (ankle)—The ankle injury Eifert suffered in the Pro Bowl has put his status for Week 1 in question, as he remains on the active/PUP list. According to Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com, Eifert “isn’t expected back until early in the regular season.”

Current Ranking: TE5

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: Slightly Down

Ladarius Green, PIT (ankle)—Green continues to rehab an ankle injury that required surgery back in January. He’s not moving quickly, but he doesn’t limp, either, according to Jacob Klinger of PennLive.com. Even though Green said he’d be ready for the start of training camp and was wrong, he told Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com he “doesn’t see why he won’t be ready for Week 1.”

Current Ranking: TE11

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: None

Eric Ebron, DET (ankle)—The reports on Ebron’s injury originally referred to a problem with his Achilles, but according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, it's actually a right ankle issue. While he didn't participate in Monday's practice, he did watch from the sidelines and wasn't in a walking boot. Even though head coach Jim Caldwell wouldn't elaborate on Ebron's status, the tight end appears to have avoided a major injury. Hopefully, he can return to action soon.

Current Ranking: TE12

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: Slightly Down

Jimmy Graham, SEA (knee)—It’s no surprise to see Graham on the active/PUP list coming off a patellar tendon injury, although on Thursday, head coach Pete Carroll said Graham is “getting really close,” per Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com.

Current Ranking: TE16

Expected Movement in Updated Big Board: Slightly Down

5 ADPs to Watch

Each week, I’ll look at the latest average draft position (ADP) data to highlight overvalues, values and trends.

5. Le’Veon Bell, PIT (ADP 11.8, RB5)—Bell’s four-game suspension is looming over the fantasy world. On July 28, head coach Mike Tomlin indicated that Bell’s appeal would be held in mid-August, per Pro Football Talk's Zac Jackson. One of the only positive reports on Bell came from ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio (via Steelers Depot's Dave Bryan), who said the team is "pretty confident" they’ll have Bell for Week 1. Before the pending suspension, Bell’s ADP put him in the top five picks and in the conversation for the top fantasy back. He’s slipping down draft boards, and that should only continue.

4. Devonta Freeman, ATL/Jamaal Charles, KC (ADP 18.3, RB7/8)—It’s interesting to see two players I have ranked lower than most with the exact same ADP. Freeman was the top fantasy back last season, but concerns about a bigger role for Tevin Coleman has fantasy players building in some regression instead of assuming Freeman will repeat his performance from last season. Charles is still working his way back from an injury, yet is getting lots of respect based on his stellar reputation as a fantasy producer. While I believe Coleman is in for a big role, it’s Charles’ ADP that bothers me more since it’s just assumed he’ll return to his top form.

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

3. Coby Fleener, NO (ADP 68.5, TE6)—The Fleener hype is already out of control. While I understand he’s coming to a team that produced the seventh-best fantasy tight end in Benjamin Watson last year, it’s a leap to think Fleener can finish even higher than that. Fleener finished 17th in 2015, seventh in 2014, tied for 13th in 2013, and 37th in 2012. The hype has only been boosted by the injury situations for Tyler Eifert, Ladarius Green, Eric Ebron and Jimmy Graham.

2. Tom Brady, NE (ADP 82, QB7)—Brady is already locked into a four-game suspension, so obviously his draft status was expected to take a hit, but how far can you realistically drop the second-best fantasy quarterback from last season? I fully expect Brady to be at least a top-five fantasy option upon his return and if you agree, then he’s still worth grabbing within the top 10 of the position, as long as you find a capable replacement for the first four weeks.

1. Arian Foster, MIA (ADP 85, RB32)—Barring an injury in the preseason, Foster’s ADP will not be lower than where it currently sits. His name carries a lot of value as someone who’s been a top fantasy back in the past, but with the hype coming out of Dolphins camp from some like offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen, who said he doesn’t want a committee, and head coach Adam Gase, who gushed about how “smooth” Foster is and “how effortlessly he catches the ball,” per Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Foster jump into the top 60 picks, although I wouldn’t advise taking him that high.

5 Situations to Monitor

5. Dallas Cowboys Backup Quarterback

One of the biggest reasons I’m weary of drafting Dez Bryant is the health of Tony Romo. Considering he broke his clavicle twice last season and has lingering back issues, it’s hard to feel confidence in Romo staying on the field for 16 games—by the way, he hasn’t played 16 games since 2012. When the team lost Kellen Moore to a broken ankle, the concern about Romo’s backup was magnified that much more. Without a capable backup (Dak Prescott and Jameill Showers are behind Romo), how can you feel great about Bryant, especially on a run-first team?

Amazingly, I’d feel much better if the Cowboys traded for Josh McCown, but according to Ed Werder of ESPN, the Cleveland Browns want to keep him and attached a high price, so Dallas rejected it. I’d expect those talks to fire up again before the end of the preseason.

4. Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers/Running Backs

The Ravens have a lot of talent and experience at wide receiver and running back, but not a lot of concrete answers when it comes to their depth chart. Steve Smith Sr. and Breshad Perriman are coming back from injuries, Mike Wallace is joining his third team in three years after disappointing stints in Minnesota and Miami, and Kamar Aiken has to prove he’s more than just a short-term replacement in the starting lineup. 

In the backfield, you have Justin Forsett entering his ninth season following a broken arm in 2015 and some young, but ultimately unproven talent in Buck Allen, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon and Lorenzo Taliaferro, who is on the active/PUP. If you want to believe training camp hype, West is standing out, according to Don Markus of the Baltimore Sun.

The hope is that these positions clear up over the four preseason games, but it’s not always so easy. These battles could continue into the regular season, which would be a nightmare for fantasy players trying to figure out who to draft from this team. As of now, the only player I really like is Joe Flacco as a late-round quarterback value.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

3. Blaine Gabbert vs. Colin Kaepernick

As I wrote in my Initial Preseason Big Board, besides Carlos Hyde, the San Francisco 49ers are a team I’d rather just avoid for fantasy. However, I must admit to being somewhat intrigued by Kaepernick in head coach Chip Kelly’s offense. Kaepernick could allow Kelly to use more read option if Kaepernick were to beat out Gabbert for the starting job. While I don’t like either quarterback much, there’s clearly more upside with Kaepernick under center, and that could open more lanes for Hyde.

2. Is Jared Goff Ready to Start for the Los Angeles Rams?

The Rams named veteran Case Keenum the starter for their first preseason game and ESPN’s Ed Werder says there’s a "very strong possibility" Keenum keeps the job to start the regular season. My biggest concern is what it all means for Todd Gurley, especially as one of the top-ranked fantasy running backs.

Gurley will be the focal point of the offense no matter who is under center and will draw the most attention from defenses, which I believe he can handle. However, the team has to have some semblance of a passing attack to keep the opposition honest. While I expect Goff to start for the majority of the season, I wonder if he has the ability to make defenses pay if they stack the box to stop Gurley.

1. Does Jimmy Garoppolo Hurt the Fantasy Value of Other Patriots?

There doesn’t seem to be serious concern about Garoppolo stepping in for Tom Brady over the first four weeks of the season, at least as it pertains to the fantasy value of Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis. With Brady giving the team ample notice to get Garoppolo ready to start, I have the full trust of head coach Bill Belichick to game-plan accordingly. Gronkowski remains a fairly steady first-round pick, Edelman is still coming off the board within the first 35 selections and Lewis is squarely in the upper echelon of the RB2 category. If Garoppolo looks overmatched during the preseason, panic may set in, but I doubt it.

Tip of the Week: Draft to the Format

Around this time of the season, I get a lot of questions about draft strategy and when to take players. Typically, I have to be somewhat vague with my responses, especially when I’m asked about a plan of action after the first two rounds. Drafts are way too unpredictable to plan that far ahead, so my general advice is to take the best player available, don’t invest too much in running backs and wait to take a quarterback.

However, format can change philosophy in a big way. When I’m posed with draft strategy questions, I’ll often ask about specifics of the league, including league size, scoring settings and how the standings work. That last factor is what gave me the idea to talk about drafting to the format. 

Over the weekend, I hosted the FLEX League Draft on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, featuring 12 players who are considered experts in the industry. As you take a look at the draft board, let me direct your attention to the team drafted by Steve Gallo (ninth overall).

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

You’re probably a little surprised to see that he grabbed Le’Veon Bell with his first-round selection as the third running back off the board. Later, he took Josh Gordon in the fifth-round as the 36th wide receiver overall. With Bell looking at a potential four-game suspension and Gordon already locked into his four-game suspension, these selections might seem perplexing, but that’s where the format comes into play. 

As Gallo explained to me on the air, because this league is winner-take-all, he made a point to go after the best talent with the most upside. That means hoping to come out of the first four weeks with a 2-2 record in time to get Bell and Gordon into his lineup, which could look quite scary. That’s the same reasoning behind Steve Gardner’s pick of Tom Brady as the fifth quarterback. Once he returns, the belief is he’ll be at least a top-five option the rest of the way.

You may not play in a league that has such high stakes or one that doesn’t reward anything but the champion. If that’s the case, you probably wouldn’t want to take such risks on players with suspensions because you can’t afford to get off to a bad start and/or there are prizes for each week of the season. It’s all about the format and adjusting your strategy and philosophy as such.

Special thanks to our friends at FantasyPros for providing stats.

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