UFC Fight Night 91: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Just days after UFC 200, the hubbub around UFC Fight Night 91 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, is minimal. The event, headlined by Michael McDonald vs. John Lineker, has a fun lineup, and what's better than a little midweek, sanctioned, televised violence?
The other fights on the main card are:
- Tony Ferguson vs. Landon Vannata
- Tim Boetsch vs. Josh Samman
- Alexey Oleinik vs. Daniel Omielanczuk
- Kyle Noke vs. Keita Nakamura
- Louis Smolka vs. Ben Nguyen
Bleacher Report staff writers Steven Rondina, Craig Amos, Nathan McCarter, Scott Harris and I are here to give you our picks.
Louis Smolka vs. Ben Nguyen
1 of 6
Steven Rondina
Nguyen has been lights out, but Smolka seems like a sure thing at this point. I'll pick the Hawaiian to make it four straight and cement himself as a top-10 fighter.
Smolka, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
This underrated flyweight contest should prove an exciting way to kick off the main card. Nguyen is the more powerful fighter and will have to keep Smolka from putting him on his back. If he can manage that (big "if"), he'll get the W.
Nguyen, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Nguyen made me a believer in his last outing. He looked spectacular when the UFC gave him a step up in competition. It's doing so again, but it won't have the same outcome. Smolka will out-point Nguyen with his experience. Smolka's in-cage experience against higher-level opposition gives him the mental and tactical advantage to get by with just enough.
Smolka, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Hawaiian MMA is on the ups. BJ Penn might be gone, but Max Holloway and Louis Smolka are taking up the slack. At 5'9", Smolka is tall for flyweight and four inches taller than Nguyen. Nguyen is well-rounded with good striking, but Smolka will fight long and tall and keep Nguyen at bay. Sound the mild-upset alarms.
Smolka, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Nguyen is on a tear—eight victories in a row, with the most recent two being in the UFC. That said, I agree with Nathan that Smolka's greater experience at such a high level will serve him here. He's also a tough, durable fighter who's never been finished, and I don't know that Nguyen is the one who can do it. If it goes to a decision, I'll take Smolka. But I think we'll get a finish.
Smolka, TKO, Rd. 2
Kyle Noke vs. Keita Nakamura
2 of 6
Steven Rondina
Noke's loss to Alex Morono in January is a damning indictment of where he is in the division these days. Nakamura has the tools to work him over and take the fight on the scorecards.
Nakamura, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
It's too late for Nakamura to live up to the expectations he brought to the Octagon in 2006, but he may have eclipsed the declining Noke. It'll be close, back-and-forth, and could even end in a split decision, but I've tipped over the fence onto Nakamura's side of things.
Nakamura, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
This fight is flying under the radar a bit. It could be a dark horse for Fight of the Night. I like Noke to eke out a decision. He has a knack for keeping fights close, and his offensive output will be just enough to impress the judges.
Noke, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Noke is a brawler. Nakamura's a fun grappler with a deep background on the Asian circuits. He should edge the Australian on the ground.
Nakamura, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
With Nakamura's record in the UFC being 1-3, it's hard to pick him, despite his impressive overall record of 31-7. Noke may be on the decline, but he's been fighting at the highest level in MMA and hasn't been finished in nearly five years. Nakamura shouldn't present too great a challenge for him.
Noke, unanimous decision
Alexey Oleinik vs. Daniel Omielanczuk
3 of 6
Steven Rondina
Oleinik is old and coming off a long layoff, but Omielanczuk isn't an especially difficult mountain to climb and submit. The UFC's Dean Malenko will turn this into a wrestling match and force a tap with some random move that only the nerdiest of grappling fans will be able to identify.
Oleinik, submission, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Oleinik hasn't competed since 2014, but this is a winnable fight for him. He'll have to be careful in the early going, but if he can survive the initial onslaught and let Omielanczuk tire himself out a bit, a submission won't be long in coming.
Oleinik, submission, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
Oleinik hasn't gone to a decision since his 2012 loss to Jeff Monson, and Omielanczuk couldn't even beat Anthony Hamilton. Oleinik has a chance to shine and make himself an important piece to the heavyweight puzzle moving into 2017.
Oleinik, Submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Two surnames, 18 total letters, nine vowels. Very impressive vowel-to-consonant ratio there. Oleinik's name may not roll off the average American tongue, but he's an outstanding grappler with 41 wins on his record. And that's not including Metamoris or anything like that. He's returning after nearly two years away, and he'll outduel another grappler in Omielanczuk.
Oleinik, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Truth be told, I will probably be one of those nerdiest grappling fans mooning over an obscure submission. Forty of Oleinik's 50 wins came by way of submission. I can't pick against a grappling superhero.
Oleinik, Submission, Rd. 3
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Tim Boetsch vs. Josh Samman
4 of 6
Steven Rondina
It's tough to pick Boetsch over anyone these days, never mind a finisher such as Samman. The fighter-turned-writer will stagger Boetsch at some point, and that will quickly draw things to a close.
Samman, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
With six losses in his last eight fights, it's difficult to trust Boetsch, especially against a solid opponent such as Samman. After a competitive Round 1, Samman will pull ahead and eventually earn the stoppage.
Samman, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
As others have noted, Boetsch, 35, is tough to pick these days. Samman, 28, is too. Samman has the athletic gifts, but he has lacked consistency during his MMA career. It's easier to take the younger, more athletic fighter who is inconsistent than it is to take the older, past-his-prime, inconsistent fighter. Samman avoids the clinch game and lands a big punch to set off the fight-ending ground-and-pound.
Samman, TKO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
I think everyone would like to see the fan favorite in Samman usher the veteran out of the limelight. But Samman relies on the scramble and the flash stoppage, and doesn't have a ton of big-name notches on his belt. Boetsch digs deep to keep his career going, whether you like it or not. Sound the upset alarms.
Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
I imagine both fighters have particularly strong incentives to win; Samman is coming off a loss that broke a four-fight winning streak, while Boetsch is presumably anxious to end his three-fight losing streak. Boetsch's career has been on a steady decline, and while he may still have some wins left in him, I don't see one coming over Samman.
Samman, TKO, Rd. 3
Tony Ferguson vs. Landon Vannata
5 of 6
Steven Rondina
Parents, make sure your children are in bed before the co-main event. It's not going to be pretty.
Ferguson, TKO, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
You just never know how a Ferguson fight will end up; his last four fights have been altered or cancelled. Once he gets in the Octagon opposite Vannata, though, there will be little doubt of the outcome. This one shouldn't take long.
Ferguson, TKO, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
Ferguson will have all the pressure on him to not only win but win viciously. He will. Vannata gets credit for jumping in on late notice, but Ferguson is a true elite title contender. That's too big a jump to make.
Ferguson, TKO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
You can never count out a Greg Jackson pupil. And Vannata's not unproven by any stretch, going 8-0 in his career thus far in some of MMA's better minor promotions. Still, Ferguson is a monster, and Vannata poked that monster when he told reporters Ferguson was "predictable" and "easy to read." Ferguson will play it safe against the late-replacement underdog (think Daniel Cormier-Anderson Silva) but will still cruise to the W.
Ferguson, TKO, Rd. 3
Sydnie Jones
When I look at Ferguson's past opponents and how he beat them, I don't see Vannata having much of a chance here, even if he does turn out to be an exceptional fighter. T-Fergs is too experienced and too talented to lose this fight at this time.
Ferguson, TKO, Rd. 2
Michael McDonald vs. John Lineker
6 of 6
Steven Rondina
Don't let the UFC's rankings fool you. McDonald is a product of the bantamweight dark ages and has done little to show that he is capable of hanging with killers such as Lineker. In my mind, it would be fairly surprising if the Brazilian didn't score a Roy Nelson-style knockout.
Lineker, KO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
I'm a little surprised to see that Lineker is the betting favorite in this matchup, per Odds Shark, but I guess the splash he's made since moving to 135 hasn't gone unnoticed. Against McDonald, he'll need to get inside and rip those bodyshots he's been putting to good use. If he can do that, he'll create some opening upstairs and earn the finish.
Lineker, TKO, Rd. 3
Nathan McCarter
Just like everyone else, I love watching Lineker fight. Unlike everyone else, I've never been too high on his title chances at flyweight or bantamweight. Lineker looked a lot better with his Fight IQ against Rob Font, but McDonald isn't Rob Font. McDonald's tendency to get wild could get him whacked by Lineker. But styles make fights, and McDonald knows what Lineker's style is all about. He'll go to his wrestling early, score a few takedowns, grind on Lineker and be able to finish late.
McDonald, TKO, Rd. 4
Scott Harris
This fight gives Lineker a chance to do what he does best (knocking dudes out) while avoiding what he does worst (making the 125-pound limit at flyweight). Those are good signs for Lineker. It's jaw-dropping that McDonald is still only 25, especially considering his smooth jazz tonalities suggest a man of much more mature stature. Regardless, I think it's a slugfest, with Lineker closing the curtain early.
Lineker, TKO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
I really like Lineker and his propensity for all-out brawling. He's facing an opponent six inches taller than him, but I haven't seen enough from McDonald to feel he can handle and counter Lineker's level of violence. McDonald may be able, however, to use his height advantage to maintain his distance and drag out a decision. Lineker is enough of a berserker that he'd storm right through, risking taking a few blows to do so, and get a finish.
Lineker, KO, Rd. 2
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