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British Open Odds 2016: Betting Advice for Latest Vegas Lines on Top Players

Rob Goldberg@TheRobGoldbergFeatured ColumnistJuly 13, 2016

AKRON, OH - JULY 03:  Dustin Johnson plays a shot on the 17th hole during the final round of the World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club South Course on July 3, 2016 in Akron, Ohio.  (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

The Big Three in golf has become the Big Four with Dustin Johnson becoming one of the favorites for the 2016 British Open, which starts Thursday.

Johnson finally got his first major title at the U.S. Open in June, showing he can get it done on the big stage to make himself a contender for the upcoming tournament at Royal Troon Golf Club. Meanwhile, the trio of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy isn't going anywhere, as those three are the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour.

There are always some sleepers in the mix, but here is a look at what to expect from the top contenders in the field.           

Odds to Win 2016 Open Championship
GolferOdds
Dustin Johnson8-1
Jason Day8-1
Rory McIlroy9-1
Jordan Spieth10-1
Adam Scott22-1
Branden Grace22-1
Sergio Garcia25-1
Henrik Stenson28-1
Rickie Fowler28-1
Phil Mickelson33-1
Justin Rose33-1
Shane Lowry45-1
Louis Oosthuizen45-1
Danny Willett50-1
Lee Westwood50-1
Martin Kaymer50-1
Zach Johnson50-1
Bubba Watson55-1
Patrick Reed55-1
Charl Schwartzel66-1
Matt Kuchar66-1
Hideki Matsuyama66-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick75-1
Marc Leishman80-1
Andy Sullivan80-1
Russell Knox80-1
Chris Wood80-1
Paul Casey80-1
Brandt Snedeker80-1
Jim Furyk80-1
Alex Noren90-1
Graeme McDowell90-1
Source: Odds Shark

         

Betting Advice

Dustin Johnson

No one in the world is playing better than Johnson at the moment. His win at the U.S. Open was notable, but he has been coming up big in major tournaments for a while now:

PGA TOUR @PGATOUR

Dustin Johnson's last six major appearances: • Six made cuts • Five top-10 finishes • One victory https://t.co/M5WlCt4Xy7

Meanwhile, Johnson has shown consistency even outside the spotlight. He followed up his U.S. Open win with a victory at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, giving him quite a bit of prize money over the past month.

The talented player has finished in the top five of his last four events and eight of his last 11 if you count the WGC-Dell Match Play. Even in stroke play alone, having seven top-five finishes in 10 tournaments is quite a run.

Although he hasn't had great success in the British Open in recent years, he is playing the best golf of his career. With his length off the tee, it might not be too long before Johnson wins his second major. 

Verdict: Bet

      

Jason Day

TROON, SCOTLAND - JULY 12:  Jason Day of Australia plays a shot during a practice round ahead of the 145th Open Championship at Royal Troon on July 12, 2016 in Troon, Scotland.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

When he is at his best, Day knows he can beat anyone in the world. The question is whether he can perform to his top ability.

The No. 1 player in the world explained his mental state heading into the British Open, per Tony Jimenez of Reuters:

I’m not so worried about them beating me, I’m worried about myself beating myself, that’s the biggest thing. To really try to conquer yourself and try to conquer your ego at times. [...]

If they beat me just because they play better, that’s fine, but if I beat myself and let them beat me, that’s what is disappointing and frustrating.

As good as Day has been, it seems like one or two rounds each tournament have prevented him from being even more successful.

He had a chance to win the Bridgestone Invitational but couldn't close with a 72 on the final day, while Johnson had a 66. A 76 in the first round at the U.S. Open put him in a deep hole right out of the gate. A Round 4 score of 74 also knocked him out of contention at the Memorial Tournament at the beginning of June. 

It's just that little bit that has prevented Day from taking over and dominating majors like he should be doing. With low odds to win, he just isn't worth the risk.

Verdict: Pass

       

Rory McIlroy

TROON, SCOTLAND - JULY 12:  Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland looks on during a practice round ahead of the 145th Open Championship at Royal Troon on July 12, 2016 in Troon, Scotland.  (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Andrew Redington/Getty Images

The problem with Rory McIlroy has always been consistency. He can get red-hot and dominate a competition, or he can fall apart and disappear.

We saw the latter at the U.S. Open, where McIlroy missed the cut after sitting at eight over through two rounds. You can blame the weather, but it was an embarrassing performance nonetheless.

McIlroy won the 2014 British Open, the last he competed in before missing last year's event with an ankle injury. However, the two previous years, he finished in a tie for 60th and then missed the cut in 2013.

The Northern Irish star knows how to strike the ball off the tee, but he lacks accuracy and struggles in bunkers, which will hurt him on the links course. This represents too much of a risk for those looking to bet on the former champion.

His upside would be intriguing with longer odds, but at 9-1, you should seek better options. 

Verdict: Pass

       

Jordan Spieth

Few expected Jordan Spieth to match what he did in majors last season, when he won the first two events—the Masters and the U.S. Open—and followed that up with a tie for fourth at The Open and a second-place finish at the PGA Championship. 

Still, Spieth has been solid this season with two victories and is coming off a strong showing at the Bridgestone Invitational, where he finished in a tie for third place.

PGA Tour also noted that Spieth has excelled in the areas that win championships:

PGA TOUR @PGATOUR

Jordan Spieth's ranks this season: Back-9 scoring: 1st Putts per round: 1st Putting from 20-25 ft: 1st Birdie %: 1st https://t.co/FDsQyKyqz7

Coming up big on the greens and in the final stretch of rounds is key, and the 22-year-old player knows how to close out victories. While going more than a year without winning a major now seems like an eternity for the former No. 1, he just might be due for another title.

At reasonable odds, Spieth is worth the chance to win it all this weekend. 

Verdict: Bet 

        

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.

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