British Open Field 2016: Tee Times, Odds, Predictions for Favorites and Sleepers
In a deep British Open field headlined by the usual suspects, two stars have surpassed the ordinary two favorites.
According to Odds Shark, Dustin Johnson enters Royal Troon as the favorite at 8-1 odds, with DJ having the slight edge (+800) over Jason Day (+850) as of Wednesday, 9 a.m. ET. The duo has jumped ahead of customary front-runners Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, pegged respectively at 10-1 and 11-1 to win the 145th Open Championship.
Most eyes are fixated on those four favorites, but let's not limit the scope to marquee names. Several sleepers buried in the odds listings could wreak havoc, perhaps enough to walk away with the Claret Jug.
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Along with the odds, here's a look at some of the opening round's notable tee times and pairings. The full schedule is available on TheOpen.com.
| Dustin Johnson | 8-1 |
| Jason Day | 17-2 |
| Rory McIlroy | 10-1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 11-1 |
| Adam Scott | 20-1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 22-1 |
| Branden Grace | 25-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 28-1 |
| Justin Rose | 30-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 33-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 40-1 |
| Lee Westwood | 40-1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 45-1 |
| Shane Lowry | 45-1 |
| 6:35 a.m. | 1:35 a.m. | Colin Montgomerie, Marc Leishman, Luke Donald (first group) |
| 8:03 a.m. | 3:03 a.m. | Branden Grace, Patrick Reed, Byeong Hun An |
| 9:03 a.m. | 4:03 a.m. | Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry |
| 9:25 a.m. | 4:25 a.m. | Danny Willett, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day |
| 9:36 a.m. | 4:36 a.m. | Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Bubba Watson |
| 1:26 p.m. | 8:26 a.m. | Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els |
| 2:04 p.m. | 9:04 a.m. | Dustin Johnson, Martin Kaymer, Russell Knox |
| 2:15 p.m. | 9:15 a.m. | Zach Johnson, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson |
| 2:48 p.m. | 9:48 a.m. | Anirban Lahiri, Sergio Garcia, Keegan Bradley |
| 4:16 p.m. | 11:16 a.m. | Ryan Evans, Callum Shinkwin, Zander Lombard (last group) |
Favorites
Dustin Johnson
It took nearly a decade for Johnson to win his first major, but he's now a favorite to capture his second one this year.
The 32-year-old enters Scotland riding a momentous wave from victories at the U.S. Open and World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational, which elevated him to a No. 2 world ranking. ESPN Stats & Info noted the late comebacks involved with each triumph:
He has accrued 10 top-10 finishes this season, with eight over his past 11 competitions. No other golfer has a better scoring average (69.155) or a longer streak of consecutive cuts made (23). Per the Los Angeles Times' Tod Leonard, 2001 British Open champ and Golf Channel commentator David Duval said that Johnson is merely harnessing his elite skills into a polished product.
“I’ve said on many occasions—and I don’t think too many people disagree—that for a year or two he’s been the most talented player there is in golf,” Duval said. “He has that weapon that is just basically unbeatable—driving the golf ball, and he’s improved his wedges.”
Johnson's next step to stardom is conquering The Open Championship, but picking him to win would stink of recency bias. He tied for 49th place last year and has not netted a top-10 finish in his last three British Open tries. The conditions could neutralize his driving game, and winning back-to-back majors is too tall an order to expect.
Prediction: Top-10 finish
Jason Day
Day remains a favorite despite his Bridgestone collapse. With a victory in hand on July 3, he coughed up the lead to Johnson with two bogeys and a double bogey over the final four holes.
Rather than lamenting the missed opportunity, the 28-year-old looks to gain insight from the letdown, per Doug Ferguson of the Associated Press:
"I learn more when I fail than when I win. We're not going to win every single one. Even though I don't like losing, it was great to be able to learn something from that and turn this into what I would say a learning experience. ... It was really bad. It was a terrible way to lose, and it was frustrating and disappointing. But things like this, you can't win them all.
"
Along with a Players Championship triumph, Day has recorded top-10 finishes in both 2016 majors. He holds the No. 1 world ranking with the second-best scoring average (69.488) behind Johnson, but the mark regresses over each round:
| 1 | 69.25 | 2 |
| 2 | 69.75 | 13 |
| 3 | 70.00 | 24 |
| 4 | 70.80 | 65 |
| 5 | 70.36 | 36 |
However, don't expect his last late blunder to affect him too adversely. He's too skilled a putter to unravel over an entire tournament, making him a safe bet to again place inside the top 10. Yet there's just enough doubt to not award Day his first Open crown.
Prediction: Top-five finish
Sleepers
Marc Leishman
After finishing fifth in 2014's British Open, Marc Leishman placed second behind Zach Johnson in last year's three-man playoff. His past Open success makes him an intriguing underdog at 80-1.
The 32-year-old hasn't registered a top-10 finish since February, but he compiled 13 birdies during a U.S. Open appearance that turned sour during a disastrous third round. He's a boom-or-bust selection with an outside chance of making a huge impact.
He'll commence the tournament with Thursday morning's first tee time, and he'll need a quick start with his struggles usually occurring in the later rounds. Don't bank on Leishman evening out his erratic play, but his style fits well enough to push for another top-10 outcome.
Prediction: Top-10 finish
Charl Schwartzel
Although he's currently playing his best golf of the year, Charl Schwartzel is making an oddly timed change ahead of The Open Championship.
On Tuesday morning, PXG CEO Bob Parsons announced the South African's equipment swap from Nike:
This is coming off Schwartzel tying for seventh at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational—his fourth straight top-25 finish. His total strokes gained (1.498) ranks ninth in the PGA Tour this season. It's just a matter of enhancing his driving accuracy to match his distance.
Despite laboring at last year's Open, he has fared well overall with four out of six finishes inside the top 20, including a seventh-place showing two years ago. The 2011 Masters winner is poised to match 2014's performance.
Prediction: Top-10 finish
All stats courtesy of PGATour.com.
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