Predicting Every College Football Conference's Surprise Team for 2016
College football is a wonderfully unpredictable sport. The yearly exit and entry of talented stars and incoming recruits makes the exercise of picking a preseason Top 25 poll an extremely difficult exercise. Last year, the final postseason poll featured 10 teams that didn’t crack the initial preseason poll in August, including a pair (Iowa and Houston) that finished in the Top 10.
There’s little doubt that 2016 will unfold in similar fashion. Even elite 2015 programs like Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma have questions to answer, and it would be no surprise if a team no one is talking about makes a name for itself this fall.
Here’s a shot at picking a surprise team from each FBS conference. Each team was picked on the basis of its returning talent, its schedule and its overall potential. Will all of these picks hit? Maybe, maybe not. But make no mistake: There will be surprises, and we hope to identify at least some of them here.
Atlantic Coast Conference
1 of 10
Following a pair of six-win seasons and bowl appearances, Boston College fell off a cliff in 2015.
Steve Addazio’s team had a very stingy defense. The Eagles led the nation in total defense and were fourth in scoring defense, yielding 254.3 yards and 15.3 points per game. The trouble was, they couldn’t score.
BC averaged 17.2 points per game (No. 121 nationally) thanks to consistent struggles under center. Four quarterbacks combined for eight touchdowns against nine interceptions and completed 44.4 percent of their passes.
Addazio brought in a new offensive coordinator in Scot Loeffler, and the offense should be improved with Darius Wade (who missed the final nine games with a broken ankle) or Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles at quarterback. Towles threw for 24 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards in parts of two seasons as UK’s starter.
The Eagles return 12 starters, including six on defense, with defensive end Harold Landry and linebacker Matt Milano leading the way. And with a little boost on offense, they should turn at least a few of the five games they lost by three points or fewer in 2015 into victories.
The schedule, with UMass, Wagner, Buffalo and UConn on the nonconference slate, is amenable, as the Eagles will miss North Carolina and Miami from the Coastal Division. If Loeffler makes the offense just a bit better, this could easily be a bowl team again.
American Athletic Conference
2 of 10
What happened at Central Florida? Last fall, the Knights were one of two FBS teams to finish 0-12, joining Kansas in that unfortunate club. The Jayhawks lived down to preseason predictions, as Charlie Weis left a young, depleted roster behind for new coach David Beaty. But Central Florida’s fall was stunning.
The Knights were coming off consecutive league titles, including a 2014 Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor, and had averaged nine-plus wins over the last five seasons. Their fall, which led to head coach George O’Leary’s resignation, was hard to forecast.
New coach Scott Frost hopes for a quick turnaround. Oregon’s former offensive coordinator will bring the Ducks’ fast-paced spread offense with him, and if he gets a full season from quarterback Justin Holman (hampered last fall by a broken finger), that’ll be a huge plus.
A new attitude would help, too. UCF rolled over toward season’s end, losing games by scores of 59-10, 52-7, 44-7 and 44-3, and yielded 37.7 points per game on the season, No. 100 nationally.
The nonconference slate includes a trip to Michigan and a visit from Maryland, and the Knights also must travel to UConn and Houston. But the new regime could make a big difference and push UCF to the brink of bowl eligibility.
Big Ten Conference
3 of 10
Mike Riley’s tenure at Nebraska got off on the wrong foot and never got a lot better over the course of his first year. Riley was a surprising choice to replace the fiery Bo Pelini, but even his polar-opposite, nice-guy reputation couldn’t save him from the wrath of Cornhusker fans following a 6-7 season.
It was only Nebraska’s third losing season since 1969, and the Huskers made a bowl game (defeating UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl) on an NCAA waiver due to a lack of eligible six-win teams.
That said, the season might not have been as ugly as it looked on the surface. The Huskers lost five games by five points or less, including a 33-28 season-opening loss to BYU on Tanner Mangum’s Hail Mary as the clock expired and a 36-33 overtime loss at Miami.
2015 was a season of transition for quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who threw 22 touchdowns along with 16 interceptions. But he was moving from Pelini’s spread to Riley’s pro-style system and should be improved as a senior. Nebraska returns 11 starters, including leading receiver Jordan Westerkamp and talented tight end Cethan Carter.
Nebraska must travel to Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa, but the Huskers do host Oregon and have an otherwise unremarkable nonconference schedule. Plus, will they really be as bad in close games for a second consecutive year? A turnaround is on the horizon.
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Big 12 Conference
4 of 10
Charlie Strong is surely feeling the heat after two seasons at Texas.
Strong is just 11-14 at the Longhorns’ helm with a pair of losing campaigns. Following 2015’s 5-7 season, he made a significant offensive change, hiring Tulsa offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert to install the Air Raid offense. True freshman quarterback Shane Buechele was impressive in spring practice and could be a game-changer this fall.
Texas returns 11 starters, including freshman All-American linebacker Malik Jefferson, and got major help on the defensive line with recruits like Jordan Elliott and Chris Daniels. The Longhorns also benefited from the scandal that engulfed Baylor’s program, signing impact recruits including wide receiver Devin Duvernay and offensive guard/tackle Patrick Hudson after they were released from their BU national letters of intent.
Texas lost three games by three points or less last fall and closed strong by upsetting a 10-win Baylor team. If Gilbert’s system takes hold, the Horns could take advantage of a favorable schedule that includes visits from both Baylor and TCU, as well as Notre Dame. Strong needs a turnaround, and he could get it in 2016.
Conference USA
5 of 10
Florida Atlantic had a frustrating 3-9 season in 2015, but it was so much closer to being something special in Charlie Partridge’s second year. The Owls lost four games by a touchdown or less, including overtime defeats at Florida and Tulsa and a 27-26 loss to Rice.
Partridge returns 12 starters but hopes Travis Trickett, who brings an uptempo spread attack from Samford as the new offensive coordinator, can get more out of an offense that scored 22.5 points per game last fall, No. 105 nationally. Trickett will pick between Daniel Parr and Jason Driskel at quarterback.
Defensive end Trey Hendrickson is the best defender in C-USA, coming off a 13-sack season. The schedule features home games against Southern Illinois and Ball State, which will balance out trips to Miami and Kansas State. Road trips to Marshall and Middle Tennessee won’t be easy, but Western Kentucky does come to Boca Raton.
This team has the talent and the schedule to get to postseason play and make noise in the C-USA standings.
Mid-American Conference
6 of 10
Lance Leipold is a winner, and that’s probably an understatement. In eight seasons at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater, he won six national titles and went 109-6 in the process with five unbeaten campaigns. His first year at Buffalo was a rude awakening; he lost more games (seven) than in his entire D-III career.
However, the Bulls nearly made a bowl, losing three games by six points or less. 2016 will be another challenge, as UB returns just two offensive starters and must replace four-year starting quarterback Joe Licata, the best passer in program history. Jordan Johnson will step into the starting tailback role after rushing for 811 yards and 12 touchdowns a year ago.
The defense does return eight starters, and a nonconference slate including Albany, Army, Nevada and Boston College isn’t especially challenging. With a small offensive improvement, Buffalo could break through to a bowl this fall.
Mountain West Conference
7 of 10
UNLV took a chance on coach Tony Sanchez after winning just 15 games in five seasons. Sanchez, who had found success at Las Vegas’ Bishop Gorman High School, made the Rebels look smart in his first season at the helm.
The Rebs were 3-9 but were largely more competitive. They lost three games by a touchdown or less and were close to a breakthrough.
Sanchez returns 12 starters and has an easier nonconference schedule, trading Michigan for Central Michigan and a good Northern Illinois team for a mediocre Idaho bunch. That should help, although identifying a quarterback between Johnny Stanton and Kurt Palandech will be huge as well.
The Rebels must travel to San Diego State and Boise State as well as UCLA, but just a little improvement combined with a solid recruiting class could mean only the second postseason trip in 16 seasons.
Pac-12 Conference
8 of 10
In two seasons at Washington, Chris Petersen has yet to live up to the huge hype that followed him from Boise State, where he won 92 games in eight seasons. The Huskies are just 15-12 in two years under his guidance and had to win their last two regular season games last fall just to squeeze into the Heart of Dallas Bowl, where they defeated Southern Miss for a 7-6 record.
2016 should be the year where it all comes together for Petersen in Seattle. Washington returns 17 starters, led by sophomore tailback Myles Gaskin (1,302 yards, 14 touchdowns), sophomore quarterback Jake Browning (2,955 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions) and one of the Pac-12’s best secondaries anchored by a pair of juniors in safety Budda Baker and cornerback Sidney Jones.
Petersen told Adam Jude of the Seattle Times that he isn't buying into the hype.
"That’s the world we live in, that’s the world our players in live in, so our message doesn’t change. If we had paid attention to the outside noise — the outside noise we had last year, trying to set us up for failure (and) in my opinion the outside noise is trying to set us up for failure again. We haven’t done anything. I think we’re pointed in the right direction, I think we’re moving in the right direction (but) what anybody says about us means nothing. ...
What matters is the work we put forth: Are we growing? Are we improving? Are we getting better as a team? I mean, (last) season ended and everybody said, "OK, that squad needs to get a lot better." Well, we haven’t played a game since. I don’t know how things have changed all of a sudden. You’d think we’d won 10 games (already).
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A defense that led the Pac-12 in scoring defense (18.8 ppg) and total defense (351.8 ypg) returns nine starters. The Huskies host Stanford and Southern California, although they must travel to Oregon and Utah. But regardless, this should be a significantly improved all-around team this fall.
Southeastern Conference
9 of 10
Derek Mason’s Vanderbilt tenure has been defined by struggle.
After James Franklin took the Commodores to three consecutive bowl games, he bolted for Penn State’s head role. Vandy immediately backslid to a 3-9 record more befitting its woeful gridiron history.
After Mason replaced both coordinators (installing himself as defensive coordinator), the ‘Dores showed progress last fall, finishing 4-8. Reverse a 14-12 loss to Western Kentucky and a 9-7 loss at Florida, and they’d have been bowl-eligible again.
Vandy returns 12 starters from that team, including junior tailback Ralph Webb, who rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last fall. However, Mason needs improvement overall from an offense that averaged only 15.2 points per game, No. 124 nationally. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur must prove himself as a competent offensive leader.
The nonconference slate includes Tennesssee State, trips to Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky and a home game against Middle Tennessee. The ‘Dores host Florida, Tennessee and Ole Miss and must travel to Auburn and Georgia, but they could scrape together six wins and make a bowl, which would be well-received by Vandy’s fanbase.
Sun Belt Conference
10 of 10
Troy was once one of the Sun Belt's true powers. Under Larry Blakeney, the Trojans won or shared five consecutive Sun Belt regular-season championships and were postseason regulars. However, they slipped in Blakeney's final years and haven't made a bowl or had a winning season since 2010.
Former Troy offensive coordinator Neal Brown was brought in to reverse that trend following Blakeney's retirement. And he had some success, but not enough, in his first season, going 4-8. The Trojans showed promise, losing three games by six points or less, including a 44-41 triple-overtime loss at an Appalachian State team that won 11 games.
New offensive coordinator Matt Moore's fast-paced, no-huddle offense promises to give Troy's attack a boost. The Trojans must travel to Clemson and Southern Miss in September but do host powers App State and Arkansas State in November. If Moore's system takes root, the postseason would be well in reach.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
