Is Todd Gurley Ready to Become the NFL's Best Running Back?

At the very least, Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley thinks he's in line to be the most productive back in the NFL in 2016.

That's what the 21-year-old was suggesting when he proclaimed recently on NFL Network, per Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith, he should be the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts this summer. Gurley said if he isn't chosen first, Antonio Brown and Cam Newton are worthy candidates.

Brown and Newton are not running backs.

Adrian Peterson is a running back. He led the league in rushing with 1,485 yards last season. Doug Martin is also a back. He finished second with 1,402. Gurley had 1,106.

Peterson, Devonta Freeman and Jeremy Hill all scored 11 rushing touchdowns last season. Gurley scored 10.

Small sample size, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 4.9 yards per attempt, while Thomas Rawls and Ryan Mathews averaged 5.6 and 5.1, respectively. Gurley averaged 4.8.

Back	Attempts	Yards	YPA	TD
1. Adrian Peterson	327	1,485	4.5	11
2. Doug Martin	288	1,402	4.9	6
3. Todd Gurley	229	1,106	4.8	10
4. Darren McFadden	239	1,089	4.6	3
5. Chris Ivory	247	1,070	4.3	7

Still, Gurley believes he'll top them all, and he could be right. There's a reason he was a top-10 selection in 2015 during a stretch when running backs have received little love from front offices.

Is Gurley ready to become the NFL's most productive back in his second season? Let's break it down.

Trajectory Matters

On one hand, Gurley's inexperience could indicate he isn't polished.  But on the other hand, it means he's as fresh as possible entering his first full season at a position that requires maximum freshness out of its stars.

He has just 12 NFL starts under his belt, but he ran for 125-plus yards in five of them. Sure, he had some rough outings as a rookie (he was limited to fewer than 50 rushing yards four times in a six-week stretch after a hot start), but he also became only the seventh rookie back in NFL history to rush for 125-plus yards on five occasions.

Back	Total
1. Todd Gurley	5
2. Adrian Peterson	5
3. DeAngelo Williams	3
4. Devonta Freeman	2

Only two other backs—Peterson and DeAngelo Williams—hit that mark more than twice. He also led the league with seven 30-yard runs on just 229 carries.

So, yes, the arrow is pointed in the right direction. Think about this: A 22-year-old Edgerrin James rushed for a league-high 1,709 yards with the Indianapolis Colts in 2000, while Ottis Anderson, Clinton Portis, Emmitt Smith and Jim Brown all put up 1,500-yard seasons at that age.

Support Matters

Gurley had stellar numbers last season despite the fact Rams quarterbacks Nick Foles and Case Keenum combined for a passer rating of 74.1 (St. Louis finished last in that category).

Pro Football Focus graded Greg Robinson as the third-worst regular left tackle in the NFL, while interior offensive linemen Tim Barnes and Jamon Brown also received terrible grades. Only one receiver went over 500 yards, and Gurley was the only offensive player to make the Pro Bowl.

Harry How/Getty Images

This year, things have changed. In comes No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff to give the Rams a boost under center. That alone should help take pressure off Gurley, as should the return of injured guard Rodger Saffold.

If recent top picks Robinson and Tavon Austin can also start to live up to expectations, opposing defenses might have to consider focusing at least minimally on the Rams' passing game. That would do wonders for Gurley, who faced too many loaded boxes last season.

Health Matters

There's a reason Gurley started just 12 games last season. He missed the first two weeks and was limited in Week 3 due to the major knee injury he suffered late in his final year at Georgia. Although he still managed to burst onto the scene with an absurd 566 rushing yards in his first four starts, Gurley probably wasn't 100 percent during that stretch.

In fact, his head coach admitted as much.

"You look around the league, it takes more than just a year to come back [from a torn ACL]," Jeff Fisher said not long after Gurley rushed for a season-high 159 yards last October, per R.B. Fallstrom of the Associated Press (via Fox Sports). "Todd's a year out, that's why I say he's not 100 percent. He's going to continue to get better."

Player	Total	2015 carries
1. Todd Gurley	7	229
2. Adrian Peterson	6	327
2. Doug Martin	6	288
4. Chris Ivory	5	247
4. Darren McFadden	5	239

Gurley also missed the Rams' finale with a toe injury. While there's no guarantee he'll play all 16 games in 2016, there's a chance he could. If we take the stats from his 12 starts in 2015 and spread them out over a 16-game sample, we get 1,462 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.

For what it's worth, those numbers would have given him more fantasy points than any other running back. A year later, he's healthier, he has more support and he has likely improved. So don't be surprised if Gurley performs like a top fantasy pick in 2016, because he might be on the verge of becoming the best back in the game.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon