Hidden Gems Still Available on 2016 NBA Free-Agency Market
Flip over enough rocks in NBA free agency, and you're bound to find players who can turn into high-end assets. This is true even now, with most of the available big names (unofficially) off the board as the league reaches the end of its offseason moratorium period.
Sometimes, it's the lesser-known talents who make some of the biggest splashes. These aren't necessarily bargains, though they can be. Others will cost serious coin in this cap-rich market, no matter when or where they sign.
Each of these free agents, though, is far from a primary target. They are consolation prizes, brimming with potential as some of the best possible acquisitions at a time when needle-nudging players are harder to find.
Ian Clark, Guard, UFA
It's all about imagination with 25-year-old Ian Clark.
He barely saw the floor for the 73-win Golden State Warriors, logging less than 600 minutes during the regular season and just over 150 in the playoffs. But his abbreviated spins were often flush with silver linings.
"It's time for Clark to receive a larger role than a third-string point guard and garbage-time specialist," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal. "He averaged 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per 36 minutes while minimizing his turnovers, hitting his fair share of triples and not serving as a glaring liability on defense."
Just 10 other players matched Clark's per-36-minute scoring, rebound, assist and three-point-attempt (5.2) benchmarks while shooting at least 35.0 percent from long range: Stephen Curry, Toney Douglas, Kevin Durant, Paul George, Manu Ginobili, James Harden, Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry, D'Angelo Russell and Kemba Walker.
Clark's sample size does limit the extent to which we can accept his extrapolated production at face value. But, at minimum, he's still a low-usage combo guard who can work off the ball.
Sixty-four percent of Clark's regular-season buckets came off assists, and he shot 37.5 percent on catch-and-shoot triples. Those scoring opportunities beget a system-friendly player. His transition into a new offense should be smooth, if not completely seamless.
There will be some defensive concern when using him as a rotation player—he will rarely ever hold a size advantage, regardless of whether he plays the 1 or 2. And he struggled with Golden State when defending bigger guards or wings off the bounce.
But Clark can survive as a react-and-recover defender—a tweener-sized dude who sags off the ball to safeguard against dribble drives while preparing to explode forward in the event of a jump shot. With the caveat that he defended just 41 spot-up possessions, he ranked in the 70th percentile of spot-up prevention.
At a time when eight-figure deals are being handed out like awkward hugs at a family reunion, Clark is the rare youngster with untapped upside who shouldn't break the bank.
Allen Crabbe, Guard/Forward, RFA
As far as hidden free-agent gems go, Allen Crabbe will cost you.
Worthwhile restricted free agents have to be handsomely compensated. Otherwise, interested suitors are just inviting incumbent teams to match their offers. In Crabbe's case, a monstrous pitch from a rival may not even be enough to pry him from the Portland Trail Blazers.
"By all indications they want to keep him," The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski told the Oregonian's John Canzano. "They developed Allen Crabbe. He's become a very good bench player. Will he be a starter? That remains to be seen...I would be very surprised if one way or another if Allen Crabbe is not back with the Trail Blazers and not playing for them next season."
Crabbe saw almost three times as many minutes in 2015-16 (2,105) as he did through his first two NBA seasons (783). He doesn't command a ton of touches, evidenced by his sub-16 percent career usage rate, and he is gradually embodying everything the league values in three-and-D specialists: a multiposition wing with an improving defensive IQ, plus the ability to stroke triples and move the ball without committing a ton of unforced errors.
Off-ball defense remains one of Crabbe's vices. He frequently seems oblivious to inbound screens and gets thrown off balance when defending downhill ball-handlers on switches. Though he split time at shooting guard and small forward this past season, even soaking up minutes at power forward, he struggled to prevent and disrupt many of the pick-and-roll possessions he faced.
Still, Crabbe is statistically one of the best spot-up shooters and defenders in the league. Kawhi Leonard was the only player in 2015-16 to match his catch-and-shoot efficiency and volume. Crabbe also allowed about the same number of points per standstill possession (0.87) as Paul George (0.86). More impressively, Leonard is the lone player to match Crabbe's assist (7.2), steal (1.5), turnover (8.1) and effective field-goal (54.1) percentages from last season.
All of this should be enough for the 24-year-old to land a semilucrative pact from the Blazers or another enamored admirer. And Crabbe's measured versatility should be enough to ensure he's worth such an investment.
Raymond Felton, Guard, UFA
Raymond Felton is officially allowed to shed human-punchline status after his 2015-16 performance.
No, he didn't explode statistically for the Dallas Mavericks. He barely shot 40 percent from the floor, his three-point clip dipped below 29 percent and he wasn't particularly efficient as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. He shot 40.8 percent and turned the ball over 16.7 percent of the time during such sets.
Felton nevertheless helped unlock Dallas' small-ball dynamic.
He thrived as the on-ball guard when playing beside J.J. Barea or Deron Williams, finding ways to slip screens and make himself useful off the rock. He ranked in the 76th percentile on points scored per possession off cuts to the basket and shot a ridiculous 50.2 percent on drives while seldom coughing up the ball.
Among the 90-plus players to stage 250 or more drives, in fact, Felton was one of nine to shoot 50.0 percent and record a turnover rate of 6.6 or better. His comrades were Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bradley Beal, Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
The Mavericks' typical starting lineup, not surprisingly, fared much better on both offense and defense when subbing in Felton for the now-departed Chandler Parsons. Felton's role in orchestrating this high-octane, hyper-efficient small-ball monster isn't enough to earn him a starter's nod or an obscene contract.
But it's enough to subtly push him into the upper echelon of backup floor generals.
Maurice Harkless, Forward, RFA
At least five teams, in addition to the Blazers, have expressed interest in signing Maurice Harkless, according to The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears. It's not hard to see why.
Portland acquired him from the Orlando Magic last summer for basically nothing—and then proceeded to hand him nearly 1,500 total minutes, trusting him to shimmy between both forward spots. That low-risk gamble yielded high-end returns.
Harkless still isn't someone to whom you delegate any scoring responsibilities. He has cleared 28 percent shooting from beyond the arc for an entire season just once, and his shooting splits outside of three feet are...well, they're disgusting.
But he isn't an offensive liability, either. He understands his perimeter shortcomings and offsets his spacing warts with understated rim assaults. He converted 66 percent of his looks within three feet of the hoop and shot almost 45 percent on drives while with Portland.
Most of Harkless' intrigue lies on the defensive end anyway, so you don't need much more. Opponents shot under 43 percent against him during the regular season, and his block rate (1.9) was through the roof for a combo forward.
Best of all: Harkless, despite four years of pro-level exposure, is just 23. He is more project than product, with the defensive smarts of a veteran five or more years his senior.
His ceiling is higher than we initially thought.
Since Harkless entered the Association, he's among five qualified non-centers who've averaged 17.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.0 block per 100 possessions at least once before their 23rd birthday. Four of them are star prospects or actual All-Stars: Antetokounmpo, Aaron Gordon, Leonard and John Wall.
Donatas Motiejunas, Forward/Center, RFA
Donatas Motiejunas might have scared off his suitors before free agency. No, not because of his back, but because he's already throwing compliments in the direction of new Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni:
Also, the back thing. Due to durability concerns, the Detroit Pistons voided a deal at the February trade deadline that would have landed them Motiejunas. Back problems and 7-footers just don't go together—not even when the skyscraper in question is only 25.
Except Motiejunas has the whole stretch 5 thing going on—he shot just 28.1 percent from distance in 2015-16, but that was through 37 appearances. He seemed to make a leap the season before, drilling 36.8 percent of his 133 outside attempts.
That 2014-15 crusade, Motiejunas' third in the league, looms large when gauging his market value. He complemented his three-ball efficiency with averages of 15.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.0 steals per 36 minutes. And while his three-point percentage plummeted during his fourth go-round, those splits essentially remained intact.
To wit: Over the last two seasons, Motiejunas is one of six players, age 25 or younger, to maintain averages of 15 points, seven rebounds, two assists and one steal per 36 minutes while swishing 34 percent of his three-point attempts.
His statistical siblings? George, Blake Griffin, Leonard, Nikola Mirotic and Kelly Olynyk.
Now is the time to invest in Motiejunas, health problems and all. Relative to this summer's free-agent market, it shouldn't take an astronomical contract to get him. And any team with the winning bid has an opportunity to get on the ground floor with a special talent at a fraction of what it should cost to land him.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
