TUF 23 Primer: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha Head-to-Toe Breakdown
No. 1-ranked* Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11-0) and No. 2-ranked Claudia Gadelha (13-1) will be set to continue their feud at The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale.
The two previously met in a closely contested title eliminator in 2014. Jedrzejczyk won a contentious decision that sent her into becoming one of the UFC's most beloved champions. She defeated Carla Esparza to win gold, and has successfully defended it against Jessica Penne and Valerie Letourneau.
Gadelha returned to action last August with a win over Jessica Aguilar.
The two were tapped to coach the 23rd season of TUF, and Gadelha's team nearly swept Jedrzejczyk's right out of action. Right from the start the two jawed back and forth nearly coming to blows. There is certainly no love loss between the two. And that makes their second fight all the more enticing to watch.
The rematch will be Jedrzejczyk's toughest defense to date, and Gadelha will seek to ruin Jedrzejczyk's perfect record just as she did hers back in December of 2014. Who will walk out of Las Vegas wearing gold?
Here is the head-to-toe breakdown for Friday's stellar strawweight title tilt between Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha.
Striking
1 of 5
Jedrzejczyk will get the nod here, but do not count out Gadelha's ability to hang with Jedrzejczyk on the feet.
Their first fight was competitive while it was standing. Gadelha trains out of Nova Uniao with Jose Aldo and Renan Barao. She's got quick, powerful hands. It's just that Jedrzejczyk is a bit better with a lot more experience.
Jedrzejczyk rocked Gadelha in their first encounter with a swift uppercut, and it will be something Gadelha has to watch out for in the rematch. Jedrzejczyk's striking is crisp and fast. The champion also utilizes marvelous elbows when in the clinch.
If a reminder is needed for how close their first bout was then FightMetric's breakdown should assist as a refresher.
This is truly a category where the word edge is very meaningful. The advantage is just an edge, not a runaway.
Edge: Jedrzejczyk
Grappling
2 of 5
The biggest gap between the two fighters is in their grappling. Gadelha is one of the division's best and strongest grapplers while Jedrzejczyk merely plays defense. She's not interested in toying on the ground.
According to FightMetric, in their first meeting Gadelha landed seven of an attempted 16 takedowns. That was only a three-round fight. Expect more of the same come Friday when the action starts.
Jedrzejczyk has excellent takedown defense, and it has improved. It will take a bit more disguise to her entries for Gadelha to be successful in the title rematch. Jedrzejczyk's striking keeps opponents on the outside where their shots become more predictable allowing her defend with ease. Gadelha's striking should negate that to allow her to get inside for better shots.
Gadelha will not win this fight if it stays standing for five rounds. She will have to grapple to achieve ultimate UFC glory. It's a good things she's good at it.
Edge: Gadelha
Submissions
3 of 5
It will come as no surprise that Gadelha gets the nod here. Jiu-jitsu just isn't what Jedrzejczyk does inside the cage.
Jedrzejczyk does have one submission to her credit, but it came early in her MMA career in a small promotion. Under the bright lights of the UFC she has faced grappler after grappler, and that string continues with this rematch.
Gadelha is a top-notch black belt, but she hasn't submitted anyone since starting her career with six of seven submissions. It won't be easy to submit Jedrzejczyk, but the possibility is there if the fight hits the mat.
The champion is still working on her ground game. It takes years to master, and Gadelha's wealth of experience on the canvas will give her opportunities to finish the fight. Keep an eye on Gadelha to bait Jedrzejczyk to give up position if she scores a takedown early in a round. She'll take her time and set her up if possible.
Edge: Gadelha
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Is Gadelha in Jedrzejczyk's Head?
4 of 5
Usually this section is reserved for X-Factors for each fighter, but in this match there is one overriding issue: is Gadelha in the champion's head?
Mind games have played a big role in Joanna Champion's title run. She trash talks her opponents, gives them gifts, and then beats them to a bloody pulp. It has been effective and fun to watch. However, that hasn't worked with Gadelha. More interesting in their interactions since TUF was shot.
Dana White spoke to Fox Sports about a fight that broke out between the two following the season wrap. Jedrzejczyk launched a water bottle at Gadelha and the two went to battle. There were few people left at the gym to break up the contest. White did not say who won the fight, but the two appeared on TUF Talk following the season premiere to discuss their brawl.
Daniel Cormier asked the question, "Who won the fight?" The champion was almost dismissive. She was trying to joke and shift focus to July 8. Gadelha was smirking and asked her which of them were left crying. Jedrzejczyk didn't have a direct response.
It was an interesting look into their mindset leading up to this official rematch. And it seems that Gadelha is winning the battle of mind games thus far. It has been quite awhile since filming ended and that's plenty of time for Jedrzejczyk to put it behind her, but if she has not then Gadelha's chances to capture the belt grow exponentially.
Prediction
5 of 5
Gadelha vs. Jedrzejczyk II is such a stellar fight. It truly is, and getting it for free the night before UFC 200 is remarkable.
And I'm picking the slight upset.
I don't know if I can officially lock in a pick until the weigh-in to see how each fighter looks as both cut quite a bit to make 115, and to see how the staredown goes. However, as of right now I lean strongly toward's the challenger based upon her wrestling advantage and how unaffected she is by Jedrzejczyk's presence.
Gadelha believes she won the first fight, and she knows she can compete with the champion. Depending on how the second scrap went down behind closed doors she may know she can beat her too.
The challenger will have to avoid eating another fight-altering uppercut, but if she is able to then this fight should belong to her. Gadelha will pressure Jedrzejczyk, force her to the fence and begin grinding. Jedrzejczyk will be constantly defending throughout the five rounds, and Gadelha will win four of the five to become the new champion.
49-46 will be the final tally on all three judge's scorecards as the new champion's hand is raise in the middle of the Octagon.
Prediction: Gadelha defeats Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision
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