Big Ten Picks for Week Five, Part One

Michigan at Michigan State Big Ten Network at 12:00 PM ET

Rich Rodriguez made the statement that whoever runs the ball more successfully will probably win this game. He was right on two counts: the weather and the history. Out of the last 40 meetings, 37 have been decided by who outrushed their opponent. MSU's run defense has been solid compared to their pass defense, only yielding 130.7 per game on the ground versus FBS competition.

The immovable object meets the unstoppable force as Michigan is leading the Big Ten in rushing with 240.3 yards per game. Stats can be deceiving, though, as neither defense is particularly good at defending the pass or the run.

On the road for the first time is Tate Forcier...so advantage Sparty. Michigan will outrush MSU and defends the run better in the second half...advantage Michigan.

My Prediction: Michigan will continue to be clutch with Forcier at QB and MSU will continue to fold. Michigan 41-Michigan State 38 (OT).

Wisconsin at Minnesota ESPN at 12:00 PM ET

This game might be even more difficult to predict considering Wisconsin is 4-0 and playing pretty good football. Wisconsin has a solid backfield as usual as well as a strong offensive line. John Clay and Zach Brown are both producing, however, the biggest surprise for this Badger team has been the passing game led by quarterback Scott Tolzien, who leads the Big Ten in efficiency.

The only problem is that Wisconsin is due for a loss. They tempted fate by going into overtime with Fresno St., and beating MSU and NIU by eight at home. On top of that Minnesota seems due for a big win after struggling with Syracuse and losing to Cal at home. Coming off a win at TCF Stadium, expect the Gophers to play well again.

My Prediction: Another down to the wire game decided by a last minute field goal, but...Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 31.

Northwestern at Purdue Big Ten Network at 12:00 PM ET

These are two teams that have must win situations. Northwestern is 2-2 but haven't really defeated anyone too formidable. Their win over Eastern Michigan was too close for comfort, and now with back-to-back losses against Syracuse and Minnesota the Wildcats are looking for a much needed victory.

Purdue is in an even tougher situation coming off of a frustrating last minute loss to Notre Dame, and now standing at a 1-3 record for September. Undoubtedly this will be a close battle between two Big Ten foes that will probably be decided in the fourth quarter.

Purdue has to continue to put points on the board as Mike Kafka and the Northwestern offense is capable of scoring points in bunches. Look for Ralph Bolden to have a career day with main matchup being in the trenches.

My Prediction: Purdue has lost three straight to Oregon, Northern Illinois and Notre Dame by a combined 13 points. They are due for a home victory, don't be surprised when they get it! Purdue 38, Northwestern 28.