UFC 200 Primer: Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The focus at UFC 200 on July 9 may be on the women's bantamweight championship fight between Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes, but another bout at 135 pounds is worth keeping an eye on as well.
The featured prelim of the night features No. 4-ranked* Cat Zingano (9-1) vs. No. 8-ranked Julianna Pena (7-2).
Zingano has not been in action since her 14-second defeat at the hands of then-champion Ronda Rousey in February 2015. The former title challenger would have another strong claim at a title shot with a victory and Tate retaining her gold.
Pena, the season 18 winner of The Ultimate Fighter, has developed from prospect to contender. She is 3-0 inside the Octagon, and a win over Zingano would also give her a claim at a title shot. Unfortunately, nothing is guaranteed with Rousey's return looming over the division.
Zingano and Pena will do their best to state their case as the next challenger in a matchup between two of the most aggressive fighters in the division. Who will walk away victorious at UFC 200 in Las Vegas? Let's break down the action for the featured preliminary contest of the UFC's biggest card to date.
*Bleacher Report MMA's June rankings
Striking
1 of 5
Both fighters offer high striking output, but Zingano is the much more polished striker.
Pena's progression as a mixed martial artist is evident for anyone who watched her early in her career. Previously, she would come forward with rudimentary strikes just to get inside and use her grappling, and if she happened to connect with her natural power, all the better.
Now Pena has more technique to go along with that power. And she will only get better.
Zingano simply offers more to her game at this point, though. She uses a full arsenal of strikes and delivers excellent knees from the clinch. She is also more accurate than Pena. According to FightMetric, Zingano lands 72 percent of her significant strikes to Pena's 47 percent.
Pena's power could be an equalizer, but the ultra-tough Zingano has faced better competition.
Edge: Zingano
Grappling
2 of 5
The grappling in this fight will be interesting to watch because of the difference in styles. One could argue that Zingano is the better grappler. She works well in the clinch and has some spectacular throws.
The edge should still go to Pena, but only barely.
Wrestling is her strongest suit, and she is aggressive in seeking the takedown. As her striking improves, she will be able to blend it with her grappling to make her takedowns even more effective. Zingano will want to refrain from wild exchanges that leave her exposed to a shot.
Zingano is tough to take down and will defend shots from the outside with ease. Pena will have to be more tactical to be successful. More importantly, she will have to use her explosiveness when trying to get the fight to the floor.
Pena owns a slight edge in the grappling department.
Edge: Pena
Submissions
3 of 5
While the grappling is a dead heat, the submission category is not. Zingano runs away with it.
Last October, Pena found herself defending an arm-triangle choke from Jessica Eye. If she is in the same position against Zingano, the fight will likely end.
Whether on her back or working from the top, Zingano is a talented jiu-jitsu artist. She continuously looks for an opening to finish the fight, and her activity from bottom will also keep Pena from landing strikes, should Pena score a takedown.
The former title challenger has more in her bag of tricks than Pena does.
Edge: Zingano
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Pena's X-Factor: Power
Zingano has faced other fighters with equal or greater power than Pena, but those fighters have also rocked her. In Zingano's last outing, Nunes nearly finished her.
Pena has a good shot at ending this fight with a single punch. One shot is all it takes to alter the course of the bout, and Pena has natural power that few in the division possess. As she develops her striking, it will only become more devastating.
Zingano's X-Factor: Takedowns
While Zingano doesn't have the edge in grappling, she is not out of her depth. She has some excellent techniques that could play a big role in how this fight plays out—specifically her throws from the clinch.
If Pena gets complacent, Zingano can toss her and be in a dominant position. Pena will want to be anywhere other than on her back against Zingano. It's the worst position in which she can find herself in this matchup.
Also, just threatening with takedowns will be a benefit for Zingano. It will force Pena to defend, which will leave openings for more strikes, including Zingano's knees.
Prediction
5 of 5
I was critical about Pena on The Ultimate Fighter, but she has steadily grown as a fighter since exiting the show. Now is her chance to have a legitimate claim at the next title shot.
But she won't be able to cash in on that chance.
Zingano is still better and smarter. Pena can get overaggressive, and that will cost her as she gets more tired in the later rounds.
After an intense first round, Zingano will settle into a rhythm that Pena will struggle to cope with. Pena will then try to make something happen in the third round but get off guard with a takedown. Zingano slowly secures a choke to put the TUF champion out.
Given Holly Holm's upcoming bout against Valentina Shevchenko and Rousey's possible return, the win won't guarantee Zingano a title shot. But the victory will put her in position, should any window of opportunity come her way following UFC 200.
Prediction: Zingano defeats Pena via submission in the third round.
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