Why Underdog Status Will Help Portugal in Euro 2016 Clash with Croatia

Eight have exited. Sixteen remain, but Portugal’s continued presence at Euro 2016 hasn’t got much to do with any intelligence they’ve displayed so far. It’s almost like they don’t know what they’re doing.

Three draws from three matches was enough to take them through, though, thanks primarily to the fact Turkey and Albania were only able to get the same amount of points from tougher groups with an inferior goal difference.

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But they’re still fighting, and when Cristiano Ronaldo is around to pack some of your punches, then you are going to hit pretty hard. So it will be with great heart they travel to Lens to take on Croatia on Saturday, when one of the more exciting sides in the tournament faces on one of its biggest disappointments.

But will it be different for Portugal now they’ve entered the knockout stages? They historically tend to like them, reaching at least the semi-finals in three of the last four European Championships.

None of those sides are remembered as great European vintages or as potential champions that were cruelly denied. They were just well-organised, expressive outfits who would have the odd sprinkling of stardust. Crucially, they could see out a knockout game too, often helped by wily coaches who could sometimes use cynical means to get results.

Have these Portugal players got that in them? Bar Ronaldo’s occasional post-match outburst, they’ve almost been too nice at this tournament, playing football at arm’s length while fairly confused coach Fernando Santos struggles with his inner desire for containment football.

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But in truth, they were almost forced to play that way in the group stage.

None of Iceland, Austria or Hungary were planning to open up the game and take on Portugal toe-to-toe, although in Hungary’s case, it just sort of happened because they had already qualified. Santos' team responded by scoring three goals.

The point is that when Croatia take to the field in Lens, they will be the team expected to be on the front foot, expected to attack and to show all of the quality displayed when they beat Spain on Tuesday, with only the crazy last few minutes against the Czech Republic in Saint-Etienne denying them a 100 per cent group-stage record.

If Portugal can get their defence right—and we discussed the changes Santos should be looking to make following the Hungary game—then they could end up frustrating Ante Cacic’s side in much the same way that Iceland and Austria frustrated them, with the difference being Portugal have far more quality on the break.

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Given the nature of most of the groups at this tournament, it has been tempting to brand this as the Euros of attack versus defence, with attack ultimately wearing down their opposition with late winning goals—think France’s matches with Romania and Albania, Spain’s with the Czech Republic and England’s with an uncharacteristically negative Wales.

But in most of those cases, the team doing the defending were simply hanging on for dear life, surrendering any attacking impetus and holding on for what would have been a point.

In knockout football, things are different. This is where Santos can earn his money as Portugal’s manager. This, and not the messy group stage, is the big test for him and one that could come to define his tenure.

Because it is from now when the Euro 2016 coaches will stand and fall by their decisions and their setups.

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If Santos can set a trap to exploit a creative, talented Croatia side and make his way through to the quarter-finals, this tournament will open up for the Portuguese. They are stationed on the kind side of the draw after all.

To do that, they are going to need to be solid, compact and ready to spring at a moment’s notice. Finding space for Ronaldo will be the key following a group stage in which he was usually followed around like a celebrity on a red carpet.

He has been that in his time, of course, but he is also a player capable of great things if he’s given the freedom he needs to express himself.

If Santos can embrace the underdog spirit and contain Croatia, then his captain could well do the rest.