Official Guide to 2016 NBA Offseason Conspiracy Theories
It's offseason conspiracy theory time!
Most summers aren't laden with talk of collusion, but this year is different. There are bunches of potentially contrived subplots to dissect.
True or false, legitimate or bonkers, these ideas are out there. So we're offering you a crash course in all of the NBA's most pertinent summertime schemes—because, after all, there's nothing worse than being left out of the (oft-irrational) water-cooler loop.
The Decision, Part III
LeBron James? Change teams a third time? Puh-lease. He wouldn't leave the Cleveland Cavaliers again. Not before winning them a champ...oh, crap.
By upsetting the Golden State Warriors and bringing Cleveland its first-ever NBA title before his cycle of one-plus-one deals reaches completion, James has fulfilled the fundamental promise from his coming-home letter.
His official obligation to the Cavaliers is gone.
Before you vomit conspiratorial disgust, consider that this is an actual thing. As ESPN's Stephen A. Smith claimed on First Take:
Smith riffed on a similar scenario back in May (via NBC Sports' Dan Feldman), specifically citing a reunion with the Miami Heat as the most likely of these unlikely possibilities: "I’m in Miami last week. I’m in Miami a few months ago. Skip Bayless, I’m hearing about a return to Miami if this man wins. He ain’t going nowhere if he loses. But, if he wins, his options are open. L.A., but especially Miami, a return to South Beach."
This thought process doesn't stop with Smith by the way. The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski also acknowledged, pre-Game 7, that things could get weird and uncomfortable in Cleveland:
"One more victory, one more magnificent night at Oracle Arena, and James will get to run off with his buddies again somewhere warm. Miami. Los Angeles. Wherever. There’s a restlessness about James that craves the next big move, the next power play. Franchises are on watch again, believing nothing’s forever in Northeast Ohio. Sooner or later, there’s a belief that James comes into play again, a line of thinking that his inner circle has done nothing to dissuade. As for James himself, well, he has gone so far as to publicly describe an end-of-career scenario that doesn’t include Cleveland.
"
Ah, yes. The banana boat bugaboo. That isn't going away.
"I really hope that, before our career is over, we can all play together," James told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck in March of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade and himself. "At least one, maybe one or two seasons—me, Melo, D-Wade, CP—we can get a year in. I would actually take a pay cut to do that."
Wade, like James, is slated for free agency. But Paul won't reach the open market until 2017 (early termination option), and Anthony cannot go on another free-agent tour until 2018 (also an ETO).
Joining Paul on the Los Angeles Clippers is out of the question for James—unless he's serious about a pay cut. In a summer defined by cap space, the Clippers have little. But the Heat and New York Knicks can manufacture max room. Might James consider signing with one of them, then try to work out the arrivals of his remaining two besties over the next year?
Miami actually has the best chance of bringing this group-text fam together on the hardwood. Team president Pat Riley can offer James close to $25 million if he ditches most of the Heat's free-agent cap holds and Wade accepts a salary under $15 million.
From there, James is one Goran Dragic, Josh McRoberts, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow-for-Anthony swap away from 75 percent of his dream becoming reality. Riley and Co. can worry about offloading Chris Bosh and bringing over Paul in 2017.
James could always try orchestrating this coup from his Ohio digs. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are good starting points for any Paul or Anthony deals, and it'll be easy to sell Wade on making no money when he's flanked by his superstar sibs (right?).
Plus, James didn't leave Miami under ideal circumstances. His "secret motivation" for winning this latest title, remember, was an unpleasant response to his decision from someone he trusted within the Heat organization, according to ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst.
Still, feel free to come up with your own neutral locations for James and friends. That means you, Joel Embiid:
All James-is-planning-to-abandon-Cleveland-again hypotheticals are relevant conversation topics until the four-time MVP inevitably squashes them by re-signing with the Cavaliers, per Cleveland.com's Joe Vardon. At that point, you'll need to defer all banana-boat brainwork for, like, an entire week.
Phil Doesn't Love Me7o
Is Phil Jackson passive-aggressively trying to convince Anthony to waive his no-trade clause? Never say never. Despite Anthony reinventing his play style this past season—he posted the highest assist percentage of his career...for a team that won 32 games—Jackson seems, at best, indifferent to his superstar's loyalty.
Even when he's conveying positive vibes about New York's commitment to Kristaps Porzingis' willing mentor, Jackson is brief, if nondescript. Take his sentiments from March, per the Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring:
And then there's this from April, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy:
"The next question to Jackson was whether he still plans to build around Anthony.
The answer was essentially he has no choice.
“You know, the thing about Carmelo is we came here and had a discussion, it is all about communication and the fact that he wants to stay here,” Jackson said. “Those are two things that are real important to him.”
"
Someone go find Anthony. There's a strong chance he needs a hug.
These aren't the only puzzling matters, either. Anthony openly pined to be involved with Jackson's coaching search, which culminated in the hiring of Jeff Hornacek. He received no courtesy consult, per the New York Daily News' Jake Becker.
Not that this is surprising: the same thing happened last summer during free-agency pitches. It might even happen again this year. Anthony wants to be at the "meeting table," per Bondy, and there is no good reason not to have him present (unless he's trying to sneak in Rajon Rondo).
He is the Knicks' lone superstar ambassador—one of their two incumbents (along with Porzingis) who will actually appeal to high-impact free agents.
If the Knicks have no plans to chase instant upgrades and would rather pursue a more protracted and organic rebuild, that's a different story. Anthony's no-trade clause gives him veto power, but Jackson can make it inarguably clear New York has no intention of accommodating his timeline. The two sides can then work together on hammering out a mutually beneficial solution.
Or Anthony and Jackson can continue perpetuating this subtle, bizarre dynamic that's unfolding between them. If nothing else, it'll keep Knicks (and Cavaliers) fans on the edge of their seats, waiting for a resolution that (never?) comes.
Warriors + Finals Choke Job = Durant
The Warriors were thought to have killed the Kevin Durant fantasy during the Western Conference Finals: either the Oklahoma City Thunder's initial 3-1 series lead proved Golden State wasn't invincible, or the 2013-14 MVP would be incapable of bringing himself to sign with an eventual champion that used his team as a steppingstone, forever rendering himself a front-runner.
But then a funny thing happened. The Warriors squandered a 3-1 lead of their own against the Cavaliers in the Finals. Just like that, as Cleveland reveled in its improbable comeback, fan-fabricated visions of Durant carrying Stephen Curry's duffel bag of Express swag returned from the dead, per Warriors World's Sam Esfandiari:
Golden State's supporters are not alone, though. The front office is thinking along the same lines, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
"It's the only thing, at this tender stage, that the Warriors can point to for consolation in the wake of the collapse: Durant is legitimately in play now.
Leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder to join the two-time reigning champions was never a narrative that could be sold to KD. But now?
Durant as the over-the-top missing puzzle piece who fixes the Warriors is a job description that the Warriors, for what it's worth, believe No. 35 could presumably stomach.
"
At first blush, this doesn't sound like much of a conspiracy. The Warriors being, as Stein put it, "all the way in on going for" Durant is a matter of circumstance—the offshoot of an epic and unexpected Finals free fall.
They didn't make Harrison Barnes miss almost all of his shots in Games 5, 6 and 7 (5-of-32). They didn't replace Curry's superhero vitamins with sugar placebos. And they didn't ask Draymond Green to get suspended for Game 5, the turning point for the series, by whacking James in the LeBrons. No one could have predicted the Warriors would be here after putting the Cavaliers in a supposed 3-1 coffin.
Then again, as Warriors World's Jordan Ramirez pointed out, maybe Curry did:
Forget the salary-cap gymnastics and depth-depleting trade dumps that go into Golden State's Durant pursuit. Pay no attention to his existing allegiance to the city of Oklahoma City. Curry already got to Durant, unsupervised, just like he did with Andre Iguodala in 2013. This one's over*.
(*It's totally not over.)
Lakers Are Signing Every Superstar Free Agent
Heh.
76ers Are Going to Max Out Everyone, Aren't They?
Welcome to the Philadelphia 76ers' post-Sam Hinkie era. It smells the same, and the future is just as hazy. But damn it all if the Sixers don't plan on using their cap space to do more than absorb the NBA's JaVale McGees and Gerald Wallaces.
As team president Bryan Colangelo told 94.1 WIP's Morning Show (via Liberty Ballers' Kyle Neubeck):
"What may be a lot of flexibility this year may be put to use on what I would call 'shorter term deals' or 'placeholder deals' that put us in a more competitive situation so that we can really turn the corner in free agency and subsequent seasons with two things: with a better story with a lot of flexibility.
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Colangelo also mentioned the importance of avoiding "middle-tier free agents" who chain the Sixers to mediocrity. But they will have to outbid for talent at this stage of their rebuild, which will prevent them from landing defined values. If the money is equal, players are not going to Philly.
Fortunately for the Sixers, they have more than $50 million in cap space without touching the roster. So when it comes to available talent with unquantified contract ceilings, Philly has the means to tempt players with monstrous two- or three-year deals they won't get elsewhere.
Whether the Sixers throw their financial weight around this deliberately remains to be seen, but the agents for Kent Bazemore and Evan Fournier should keep their phones at max volume just to be safe.
The Minnesota Bulls
Recently hired Minnesota Timberwolves head coach/president/dude most likely to recycle David Blatt's fighter-pilot analogy Tom Thibodeau must miss coaching the Chicago Bulls. According to Stein and colleague Chad Ford, the Timberwolves are trying to bait Thibodeau's former team into trading Jimmy Butler.
That makes some sense: Butler is an All-Star, beefs up Minnesota's crummy perimeter defense and pairs nicely with Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins if he's open to being a spot-up shooter.
But Thibodeau might also be giving Joakim Noah a call when free agency begins, per Mitch Lawrence of Sporting News. That, um, doesn't make sense. Noah is on the wrong side of 30, will cost eight figures annually and only takes minutes away from Towns, Gorgui Dieng and/or Nemanja Bjelica. Oh, and ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson previously identified the Timberwolves as a team who will pitch Luol Deng in free agency.
Sensing a pattern yet?
Derrick Rose is on the chopping block in Chicago, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, if Thibodeau is interested. And hell, why stop there?
Pull Richard Hamilton and Brian Scalabrine out of retirement. Sign Ronnie Brewer. Trade Towns for Omer Asik. Deal Andrew Wiggins for Kyle Korver. Flip Zach LaVine for Taj Gibson. Max out Carlos Boozer. Beg Mike James to leave the old-folks home.
Let's get the Bulls' entire 2011-12 band back together again...in Minnesota.
Your move, Thibs.
The NBA Is Rigged
Ayesha Curry is not alone in her (heat-of-the-moment) claims.
Pablo S. Torre of ESPN.com rehashed some other high-profile "The NBA is rigged" theorists and enthusiasts. His list included Ray Allen (2001), Mark Cuban (2006), Steve Nash (2007) and Gabrielle Union (2016), among others.
Think about it. Frozen envelopes. Michael Jordan's first retirement. The vetoed Chris Paul-Lakers trade. The Cleveland Cavaliers winning the 2011 draft lottery with the Los Angeles Clippers' pick one year after James bolted for Miami. The New Orleans Hornets winning the 2012 draft lottery after being sold by the league. Stephen Curry's foul trouble and no-calls in this year's NBA Finals. Watergate. The moon landing.
We may never have any idea how deep this whole basketball sham goes—or if the Association is even rigged (it's not). The 2016 offseason could end up being our litmus test. Seeing Durant and James sign minimum contracts to play for the San Antonio Spurs would be a clear indication of contrived play.
If the NBA is rigged (again, it's not), imagine what that means: The league scripted the 2015-16 Warriors' season, right down to the most exciting Finals matchup we've ever seen. There are no words.
Except: Thank you, NBA.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
