US Open Odds 2016: Breakdown and Analysis of Top Favorites' Chances

The primary storyline at this year's U.S. Open at the Oakmont Country Club may end up being the difficult greens and the potential for stormy weather in Pennsylvania.

Which begs the question: Which players are most capable of handling such conditions?

Not surprisingly, the projections appear to favor the top players in the world:

Player	Odds
Jason Day	13-2
Rory McIlroy	15-2
Jordan Spieth	9-1
Dustin Johnson	12-1
Phil Mickelson	25-1
Justin Rose	28-1
Rickie Fowler	28-1
Adam Scott	30-1
Hideki Matsuyama	30-1
Henrik Stenson	30-1
Matt Kuchar	35-1
Danny Willett	40-1
Brooks Koepka	40-1
Sergio Garcia	40-1
Patrick Reed	40-1
Bubba Watson	45-1

Simply put, it's tough to bet against Jason Day at the moment. The 2015 PGA Championship winner has three wins and six top-10 finishes on the season, including his triumph at the Players Championship. 

The world's top-ranked golfer didn't hold back when asked about his season, either, acknowledging that being atop the golfing world can take its toll, per Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune:

"

I've never been more stressed in my life than right now. Being No. 1 in the world, having a lot of expectations, having to practice so hard to keep that No. 1 spot, trying to win as many tournaments … it puts a lot of stress and pressure on your shoulders. Sometimes your immune system gets a little heated, and you're more susceptible to getting some illnesses that way.

"

Still, if this is a stressed-out Day in 2016, the rest of the golfers on the PGA Tour would probably prefer he relaxed. Nobody has been better this season, which is why he's the smartest money at the U.S. Open.

Jordan Spieth has been very good this season as well, with two wins of his own and five top-10 finishes, though he's still carrying around the ghost of a Masters collapse with him. Still, he's the defending U.S. Open champion and has managed to be competitive throughout the season despite clearly not having the same form as he had a season ago.

That makes the prospect of him rounding into form at Oakmont a scary one for the field. And the course seems to favor his style of play, per Bill Nichols of the Dallas Morning News:

"

In many ways, the keys to Oakmont seem to play to Spieth's strengths. Players such as Spieth who are well-versed in working the ball in both directions will have easier access to the prime positions on the greens. That's one reason Spieth excels on doglegged courses like Augusta National, where he has a win and two seconds, and Colonial, where he recently won the Dean & DeLuca Invitational. Putting, another of Spieth's trademark skills, also figures highly in the equation. 

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Much of the talk is centered on Day and Spieth. But what about Rory McIlroy?

No, he hasn't won this season. But he has five top-10 finishes and has finished 12th or better in his last four tournaments. Still, the question for McIlroy will be whether he has the mental fortitude and composure to win in the unfavorable conditions at Oakmont.

"I'd be very proud if I won on a golf course like this," he told Brian Wacker of Golf Digest. "To be able to win on a course like this with the conditions the way they are, it would probably be my, I don't know, maybe my biggest accomplishment in the game. But definitely would make me feel like a more complete player."

There aren't many players on the PGA Tour who drive the ball better than McIlroy. Few combine grace with power like McIlroy does on his approach game. But he can get himself in trouble once the putter comes out, and it's the putter that will likely win this tournament. 

"You could go a whole round here without hitting it at any pin," McIlroy acknowledged, per Wacker. "I'm an aggressive player as well, so there's just going to be times where I'm going to have to rein it back a little bit."

But he added: "You still have to hit good shots. You can't slap it around here. You have to flight your iron shots. You have to still hit high quality golf shots to give yourself a chance."

McIlroy is certainly capable of doing just that at this year's U.S. Open. At a tournament where taming the course will be very difficult, monitoring McIlroy's composure will be a fascinating storyline.

Those are the big three, as always, but other contenders are worth watching. Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama have the talent to succeed on this course. Danny Willett should be confident following his Masters triumph. Justin Rose won this tournament three years ago. Rickie Fowler (six top-10 finishes this year) is due.

But the safest money is on either Day, Spieth or McIlroy. They are golf's triumvirate. They are the most talented players in the game. One of them, more than likely, will tame Oakmont.

Well, at least as much as anyone can tame what is shaping up to be a difficult course.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.