Could Geno Smith Be a Better Jets Starting QB Option Than Ryan Fitzpatrick?

We've spent so much time this offseason discussing Ryan Fitzpatrick's contract (or lack thereof) that it's become easy to forget that Geno Smith, not Fitzpatrick, was supposed to be the New York Jets' starting quarterback last fall. 

That was before a teammate broke Smith's jaw over a $600 debt, spoiling the 25-year-old's third NFL season. 

Fitzpatrick took full advantage of the opportunity by putting together arguably the best season of his long career, nearly leading the 10-win Jets to the playoffs. But the journeyman still threw 15 interceptions and ranked 24th in the league with a passer rating of 88.0. He also finished the year with a disastrous three-pick performance in a do-or-die loss to the Buffalo Bills. 

Category	Smith	Fitzpatrick
Comp.%	57.9	60.1
TD-INT ratio	0.77	1.33
YPA	6.8	6.7
Rating	72.3	80.8

So maybe the Jets wouldn't be crazy to hand the reins back to Smith, especially since the 2013 second-round pick has apparently been making plenty of progress entering his fourth season. 

“Being in the system a year, he’s light-years ahead of where he was last year,” said Jets head coach Todd Bowles of Smith, according to Gary Myers of the New York Daily News. “As far as being confident, operating the system, understanding the checks, running the offense, he’s night and day [from] where he was.”

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Regardless of whether Bowles is adhering to a party line, it's a good sign that a coach not known for hyperbole is willing to praise a quarterback for his progress—especially considering Smith already appeared to be making headway at the conclusion of his last full season. 

A glance at Smith's career numbers—57.9 completion percentage, 27 touchdowns to 35 interceptions and a 72.3 passer rating—won't inspire confidence. But he did finish strong in 2014. During the final four games that season, the then-second-year pivot completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 1,001 yards. He also had six touchdowns, two interceptions, a 9.2 yards-per-attempt average and a 105.3 passer rating. 

Category	First 26 games	Last 4 games
Completion %	56.3	65.1
TD-INT	19-32	6-2
Yards/attempt	6.5	9.2
Passer rating	66.2	105.3
40-yard passes/game	0.3	1.3
20-yard passes/game	2.3	4.0

For comparison's sake, the 33-year-old Fitzpatrick has posted a higher passer rating over a four-game stretch on only two occasions in his 11-year, 113-game NFL career. 

And there's no evidence the team was babying Smith. In fact, during that four-game stretch, Smith was tied for the league lead with five completions of 40 yards or more, and only three quarterbacks completed more 20-yard passes. The average ranking of the pass defenses he faced in those four games was 11th. 

	Most 20-yard passes	Most 40-yard passes
1	Russell Wilson (19)	Geno Smith (5)
2	Teddy Bridgewater (17)	Teddy Bridgewater (5)
3	Peyton Manning (17)	Eli Manning (5)
4	Geno Smith (16)	Robert Griffin III (5)
5	Matt Ryan (15)	Ben Roethlisberger (4)

With those numbers and an eight-year age gap in mind, it's clear Smith's career trajectory is headed in a more promising direction than Fitzpatrick's. That might explain why Smith has Hall of Fame Jets quarterback Joe Namath's endorsement, regardless of whether Fitzpatrick returns. 

"I think Geno’s going to be the starting quarterback no matter if Fitzpatrick comes back or not," Namath said this week, per Newsday's Brian Heyman, adding he has seen growth from Smith as well: "He’s filling out stronger, and [he’s] more mature."

Considering all of that, as well as the fact that the Jets already have two other talented young quarterbacks on board to offer Smith support, it's a little easier to see why the team doesn't appear willing to overpay for the aging Fitzpatrick. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon