US Open 2016 Odds: Examining Betting Lines for Underrated Picks
Three players are dominating the golf headlines, but there will be other contenders at the 2016 U.S. Open, which starts Thursday.
Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth have been the three most consistent performers over the past year, and there is no question they are the favorites to win in Pennsylvania at the difficult Oakmont Country Club course. Still, this is a sport in which upsets are common, and even majors can feature surprise winners. If you are looking to make money, you might be smart to find a high-upside sleeper.
Here is a look at the full odds for the top options this weekend and a breakdown of some sleepers you might want to target.
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| Jason Day | 13-2 |
| Rory McIlroy | 15-2 |
| Jordan Spieth | 17-2 |
| Dustin Johnson | 12-1 |
| Justin Rose | 28-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 28-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 28-1 |
| Adam Scott | 30-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 33-1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 33-1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 35-1 |
| Danny Willett | 40-1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 40-1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 45-1 |
| Bubba Watson | 45-1 |
| Patrick Reed | 50-1 |
| Branden Grace | 50-1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 66-1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 70-1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 70-1 |
| Daniel Berger | 70-1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 70-1 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 75-1 |
| Lee Westwood | 80-1 |
| Paul Casey | 80-1 |
| Zach Johnson | 80-1 |
| J.B. Holmes | 90-1 |
| Billy Horschel | 90-1 |
| Marc Leishman | 90-1 |
| Jim Furyk | 100-1 |
| Kevin Chappell | 100-1 |
| Jason Dufner | 100-1 |
| Russell Knox | 100-1 |
Matt Kuchar
Few players on PGA Tour are as consistent as Matt Kuchar, something that will be important on a challenging course.
Although Kuchar doesn't have any wins this season, he has been red hot as of late with four top-six finishes in a row, including a tie for third at The Players Championship. That consistency has carried over throughout the past few years at the U.S. Open, putting him in a rare group, per ESPN Stats & Info:
"6 players have made the cut at the last 5 U.S. Opens: Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia & Phil Mickelson
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 14, 2016"
He hasn't yet won a major, but most of those events feature top players pulling away from the field with low scores. The last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont (2007), Angel Cabrera won with a score of five over par.
Kuchar's knack for racking up pars and avoiding mistakes will be exactly what is needed at this type of tournament.
Even without having the longest drives, he should be able to avoid the rough and give himself a good chance at low scores. It won't be exciting, but it might be enough to win.
Danny Willett
Spieth reminded people last season that it is possible to win the Masters Tournament and the U.S. Open in the same year. Although Danny Willett's win at Augusta National was much more of a surprise, he clearly has the talent to win a major tournament and isn't going to go down quietly.
Despite the recent success, the English player isn't putting pressure on himself, though, per Doug Ferguson of the Associated Press:
"I mean, what Jordan did last year was awesome. You look at the strength of the field and it would be fantastic to even be somewhere thereabouts come Sunday. We're just going to have to play golf and see what happens. Hopefully, we can be somewhere there and get a little bit of a feeling for it.
"
The question is whether he can avoid the type of disastrous round that has held him back since April. Willett shot a 73 in Round 2 at The Players Championship and ended up missing the cut. His performance at the Irish Open ended with a 77 in Round 4. While he finished in third place at the BMW PGA Championship, he ruined his chance of victory with a 76 in Round 3.
There will be enough mistakes throughout the weekend that a bad round won't necessarily eliminate anyone from contention. Still, Willett has to stay in control and come through with as good of a showing as we have seen from him.
Considering the long odds, the Masters champion remains a quality bet heading into the week.
Sergio Garcia
We know Sergio Garcia has never won a major. However, he is often a threat at these types of events and has done well at the U.S. Open in his recent years, as ESPN Stats & Info highlighted above.
Experience will also play a big part of this week as players try to deal with narrow fairways, long rough and fast greens. Anyone who has played this course, even if he struggled in the past, will have an advantage.
Garcia's game is also well-suited to succeed at Oakmont thanks to his ability to avoid mistakes on the way to the green. According to the PGA Tour's official website, he ranks first in the world in greens in regulation percentage at 71.89 percent and is among the best in approaching the green. While there are doubts about his putting, his ability to cut down strokes before that point will provide a little leeway.
Coming off a win at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Garcia has the momentum and style of play necessary to succeed at Oakmont. Now he just needs to avoid the mistakes that have stopped him from winning majors in the past.
Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.
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