AFC Team By Team: Fantasy Notes, Targets and Looks

The teams in the NFL are passing 55 percent of the time this season, which is one percent higher than in 2008. Using the exact format I used one week ago in the NFC Depth Chart Notes, for each team this week, I will first list the percentage of each team’s plays that were pass attempts so far, and append their league rank in that department in the brackets (one will be the minimum, and will correspond to passing, and 32—the maximum, and will correspond to running).

In my team analysis, I will discuss that percentage’s impact on the team.

Buffalo, 55 percent (17)

The Bills have run a balanced offense so far and Trent Edwards has done a nice job managing it. He is about the average in yards per attempt and completion, and better than average in touchdowns per completion, and also in interceptions per attempt.

Marshawn Lynch will return from his suspension in Week Four and will split carries with early-season stud Fred Jackson, who leads the NFL in looks and has carried the ball on 81 percent of Buffalo’s run plays. He’s also been targeted on a team-high 22 percent of Edwards’ throws.

Terrell Owens has been targeted only 15 percent of the time, which is likely less than he was expecting when signing up with Buffalo. Lee Evans (19 percent) is seeing more of the looks. Edwards likes to use his tight end and because of that Derek Schouman (pre-injury) and Derek Fine are reaping the benefits.

Twenty nine percent of Edwards’ pass attempts have gone to a tight end. Josh Reed has been targeted 11 percent of the time and has responded by catching all 10 of those targets.

Miami, 48 percent (29)

Only three teams have run the ball at a higher rate than the Dolphins, who have put Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to good use. Brown has taken care of 51 percent of the carries and nine percent of the targets. Williams has carried it 33 percent of the time and has been targeted 11 percent of the time.

Ted Ginn has been targeted a team-high 30 percent of the time, but most of that is due to 16 looks in Week Two. Totaling 13 catches on 27 targets for 134 yards, he was shut out on six targets in Week Three and isn’t even the team’s leading receiver as Davone Bess (21 percent of targets) has 17 catches on 19 targets for 140 yards.

Greg Camarillo (eight percent) and Brian Hartline (six percent) have also been involved.

No team has used their tight ends less than Miami.

Starter Anthony Fasano has seen just six percent of the targets (six total). Most of that production was with Chad Pennington behind center. Now that Pennington is out for the season, it will be interesting to see if Chad Henne distributes the ball similarly.

New England, 63 percent (three)

The Patriots are throwing it a ton, but it hasn’t shown on Tom Brady’s statistics sheet…yet. Brady’s 3.4 percent TD/Completion rate is one of the worst in the NFL and could only improve.

His 10 yards-per-completion rate is also well below league average.

Fred Taylor appears to be the go-to running back after his 21 carry effort in Week Three. He has carried the ball on 46 percent of the Patriots run plays so far. Laurence Maroney is second on that list at 24 percent, with Kevin Faulk (13 percent), and Sammy Morris (nine percent) not far behind.

Randy Moss has been one of the most targeted players in NFL history for the three weeks since it resumed. He’s responded with 26 catches on 40 targets. Twenty eight percent of Brady’s passes have gone to Moss. Eleven percent have gone to Welker, but that figure is misleading considering Welker missed two of the team’s three games.

Joey Galloway (13 percent) and Julian Edelman (15 percent) have also been targeted more than 15 times.

Ben Watson has been quiet since a big Week One, but has still seen 10 percent of Brady’s passes directed at him. Chris Baker (four percent) is not seeing as many as most expected. Faulk has seen nine percent of Brady’s targets come his way, the highest mark for a Patriot running back.

New York, 44 percent (32)

The Jets are league’s run heaviest offense through three weeks.

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have been splitting the majority of the looks. Jones has carried it 46 percent of the time and was targeted four percent of the time for a total of 51 looks. Washington has carried it 39 percent of the time and has seen 13 percent of the targets for a total of 52 looks.

That is what you call a platoon.

Jericho Cotchery (30 percent) and Chansi Stuckey (25 percent) have seen a similar amount of targets, but Cotchery has caught eight more passes than Stuckey. Brad Smith (four percent) and David Clowney (one percent) have been non-factors in the offense. Dustin Keller (19 percent) has seen around five balls a game thrown his way.

Houston, 63 percent (four)

Matt Schaub has been fantastic after a rough Week One and the Texans playcallers are letting him do his thing by calling passes more than all but three NFL teams. Steve Slaton has struggled thus far, but was better in Week Three and is getting 59 percent of the team’s carries.

Chris Brown is getting a bit more than expected at 30 percent. Overall, Slaton is getting significantly more looks, thanks to him also seeing 13 percent of the targets, compared to just three percent for Brown. Andre Johnson has been targeted a team high 28 percent of the time.

Owen Daniels isn’t far behind at 21 percent.

Kevin Walter missed two games, but made up for it in Week Three by catching all seven of his targets. WRs David Anderson, Jacoby Jones, and Andre Davis (who has also missed time) each have seen between five and nine percent of the targets each. It’s worth noting that should Owen Daniels go down with an injury, Joel Dreessen appears to be the Texans tight end to replace him in the passing game.

Dreessen is the only other Houston tight end with a target (four, four percent of the team total).

Indianapolis, 57 percent (13)

The nightmare for Joseph Addai owners seems to be commencing.

Donald Brown has seen a bigger portion of the workload each of the first three weeks of the season and has impressed. Overall, Addai has seen 49 percent of the carries, compared to 40 percent for Brown. Addai also has the advantage with 11 percent of the targets going to him, compared to five percent to Brown. However, after a 23-13 advantage in looks in Week One, the ratio dropped to 7-5 in a weird Week Two matchup against Miami before getting even closer at 17-16 in the team’s Week Three contest.

I suspect that Addai will still get slightly more looks each week, especially considering he is averaging almost a half a yard per carry more than Brown, but that could change if the rookie continues to improve. Stay tuned.

Reggie Wayne has seen 30 percent of the team’s targets and that number is sure to stay high all season, especially considering that Anthony Gonzalez will still be out for several more weeks. Pierre Garcon seems to be adjusting well to the WR2 role and he’s seen 13 percent of the targets. Austin Collie isn’t far behind at 13 percent. Dallas Clark has seen 24 percent of Peyton Manning’s passes come his way.

Jacksonville, 57 percent (14)

Maurice Jones-Drew has been the offensive workhorse and that will continue as long as he stays healthy. He’s seen a team-high 74 percent of the carries (would be even higher, but David Garrard likes to run and is responsible for 17 percent of the team’s run plays) and is second on the team in the targets department with 22 percent going his way.

Backup RBs Greg Jones and Rashad Jennings would be players of fantasy relevance should MJD go down for a while, but to date, they’ve only seen four percent and three percent of the carries, respectively.

Torry Holt seems to be the number one receiving option as of now, but that could change quickly as Mike Sims-Walker is coming on strong. Holt has seen 23 percent of the targets, while Sims-Walker has seen 20 percent. Nate Hughes (cut) and Troy Williamson (IR) had combined for 12 percent of the targets, but both are now gone. Mike Thomas will pick up the slack. At tight end, Marcedes Lewis has seen 13 percent of the looks, while Ernest Wilford has seen two percent in limited action.

Read the full article for the remaining nine teams.

Depth Chart Notes rotate each week from the 16 NFC teams to the 16 AFC teams. If you are curious about something you see here or have a question about an AFC team (should it be a week I’m focusing on the NFC, for example), feel free to email me at [e-mail], leave a comment, or shoot me a tweet @FDC_MikeClay .