US Open Picks 2016: Dark-Horse Candidates to Win

Oakmont Country Club has the reputation of being one of the most difficult golf courses in America.

World No. 2 Jordan Spieth recently backed that claim following a practice round at Oakmont last month, describing the course as "the hardest test in all of golf," according to Tom Smith of the Kansas City Star. He added, "This is arguably the hardest course in America. It's normally the hardest U.S. Open, at least what history shows."

Oakmont opened its doors in 1904 and hosted its first U.S. Open in 1927, where the course demolished the top players in the game. Tommy Armour and Harry Cooper tied for the 72-hole lead at 301 (plus-13), and Armour would go on to win in a playoff the following day. The world’s best golfers didn’t fare much better in 1935, when Sam Parks Jr. won with a score of 299 (plus-11).

Since then, however, U.S. Open golfers have fared much better at Oakmont. The course has hosted the Open six times since 1935, and the winning score was under par at five of those six events. The only player to win with an over-par score during that span was Angel Cabrera in 2007, who was the last man standing with a score of 285 (plus-five).  

While history may not confirm that Oakmont is the most difficult U.S. Open course, two things have become clear about this iconic venue:

1. Oakmont is beatable under the right conditions—just ask Johnny Miller and Larry Nelson.
2. Longer hitters have had a distinct advantage at Oakmont, as there are two 600-plus-yard par fives, five par fours can max out at 475-plus yards, and the eighth hole is a 288-yard par three.

The favorites heading into this week include Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson, among others, per Odds Shark. The following players, however, could shock the world Sunday evening despite entering the 116th U.S. Open somewhat under the radar.

Harris English (150-1)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Last We Saw English: T-26 at FedEx St. Jude Classic

2015 U.S. Open Finish: Did not play

Best U.S. Open Finish: T-48 in 2014

Harris English tied for second at the Dean & Deluca Invitational in late May and was right in the mix through three rounds at the FedEx St. Jude Classic before posting a 73 on Sunday.

English has above-average power off the tee and is currently ranked eighth on tour in strokes gained from putting.

Although English has not performed well at majors in the past, his combination of power and touch around the greens as well as a fairly hot hand could be the recipe to tame this beast of a golf course.  

Rafael Cabrera Bello (125-1)

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Last We Saw Cabrera Bello: T-52 at the Memorial Tournament

2015 U.S. Open Finish: DNP

Best U.S. Open Finish: T-47 in 2010

Rafael Cabrera Bello has only attended two U.S. Opens and made the cut just once, back in 2010. However, the 32-year-old Spaniard has been trending in the right direction in recent years.

Cabrera Bello already has five top-10 finishes this year, with two of those top-10s coming on the PGA Tour. In his last two World Golf Championship appearances, Cabrera Bella has a T-11 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and made it through to the semifinals of the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship. 

Cabrera Bello, who is currently fourth in the European Tour’s Race to Dubai standings, ranks 15th on the European Tour in greens per round and is within the top half of the tour in putts per green hit in regulation. This is an important combination for any player to possess at a course such as Oakmont, where missing the green essentially constitutes a one-stroke penalty.  

Cabrera Bello tied for 17th earlier this year at his first-ever Masters appearance and will be looking to improve upon that this week at Oakmont. There is some value in him with 125-1 odds.

Webb Simpson (125-1)

Associated Press

Last We Saw Simpson: T-11 at the Memorial Tournament

2015 U.S. Open Finish: T-46

Best U.S. Open Finish: Won in 2012

Simpson is a past U.S. Open champion who has never missed the cut at the event, so it’s surprising to see the 30-year-old four-time PGA Tour winner being given such long odds to add to his major championship tally at Oakmont.

Simpson has been striking the ball well this season, ranking 20th on tour in strokes gained from tee to green and 46th in total strokes gained. But he has struggled with the transition to a non-anchored putting stroke, ranking 170th on tour in strokes gained from putting.

Simpson’s putting has improved dramatically in recent weeks, however. He ranked 17th in SG:P at the Dean & Deluca Invitational and 66th at the Memorial.

Based on Simpson’s past U.S. Open record and solid ball striking this season, if he can remain hot with the putter this week, there is no reason why he cannot contend at Oakmont.

Shane Lowry (100-1)

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Last We Saw Lowry: Missed the cut at the European Tour's BMW Championship

2015 U.S. Open Finish: T-9

Best U.S. Open Finish: T-9 in 2015

Lowry first arrived on the radar of most golf fans when he won the 2009 Irish Open as an amateur, which was the Irish version of a Francis Ouimet moment. While Lowry has gone on to win three additional events around the world, his lone PGA Tour win came at last year’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

Major championships have so far been a case of feast or famine for the 29-year-old Irishman. He made the cut at just one major last year, which was a T-9 finish at the U.S. Open. In 2014, he did not qualify for the Masters, missed the cut at the U.S. Open, posted an impressive T-9 finish at the Open Championship and then tied for 46th at the PGA Championship.  

Lowry, who spends most of his time playing in Europe, is ranked within the top half of the European Tour in both driving distance and average putts per green hit in regulation.  

Because of his level of inconsistency, Lowry is a somewhat risky pick. But when he is on, he has the ability to win big-time events, which is why he is potentially undervalued at 100-1 odds.

Billy Horschel (80-1)

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Last We Saw Horschel: T-28 at The Players Championship

2015 U.S. Open Finish: T-25

Best U.S. Open Finish: T-4 in 2013

Billy Horschel has not missed a cut since late January and has six top-25 finishes so far this season.

More importantly, Horschel has been a U.S. Open machine over the past three years. He has notched three straight top-25 finishes, including a T-4 finish in 2013 at Merion.

Horschel has performed far better at the U.S. Open than any other major championship in recent years and will enter this year’s event rested, with his last start having come several weeks ago at The Players Championship.

Based on Horschel's recent U.S. Open performances as well as his run to the FedEx Cup title in 2014, the 29-year-old does not seem to be fazed by the pressure of big-time events. That will give him an advantage as he attempts to navigate his way around this difficult U.S. Open track.

Lee Westwood (80-1)

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Last We Saw Westwood: T-8 at the Nordea Masters

2015 U.S. Open Finish: T-50

Best U.S. Open Finish: 3rd in 2008

Lee Westwood went into a bit of a slump in 2015, as his divorce and move back to England drew his focus away from the game.

"I'm going through a divorce and found it nearly impossible to concentrate on golf, so I understand what happened in terms of my results last year," Westwood told ESPN.com's Gordon Simpson earlier this year. "How I played didn't really concern me, but now I'm back living in the UK permanently and trying to factor in when I see my kids and which events I play around that."

While Westwood’s off-the-course issues may have taken a toll on his game last season, the 43-year-old has come out firing in 2016. He tied for second at the Masters earlier this year and has two top-10 finishes in his last three events.

Westwood went on a streak between 2008 and 2013 where he had finished 10th or better three times at the U.S. Open and didn’t finish outside of the top 23.

If off-the-course issues affected Westwood's performance over the past year, what's to say he won't return to the mix at this week's U.S. Open now that things in his personal life appear to have settled down? He is extremely undervalued at 80-1 odds.

J.B. Holmes (80-1)

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Last We Saw Holmes: T-4 at the Memorial Tournament

2015 U.S. Open Finish: T-27

Best U.S. Open Finish: T-17 in 2014

J.B. Holmes is one of only a handful of players in the game who possess the power to decimate Oakmont’s 600-yard par fives.

While Holmes is renowned for his incredible power off the tee—he currently ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving distance—he is not a poor putter like many other power players. Holmes currently ranks 71st on tour in strokes gained from putting, which is slightly above average.  

Holmes is also trending in the right direction heading into the U.S. Open. He posted a T-4 finish at his last event (the Memorial) and tied for fourth at the Masters in April, too.

Holmes' power will offer him an advantage that few other players enjoy, but his ability to navigate Oakmont’s greens will determine if his name appears on the leaderboard late Sunday afternoon.    

Matthew Fitzpatrick (75-1)

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Last We Saw Fitzpatrick: Won the Nordea Masters

2015 U.S. Open Finish: DNP

Best U.S. Open Finish: T-48 in 2014 (as an amateur)

Matthew Fitzpatrick is coming off a win at the Nordea Masters and a T-7 finish earlier this year at the Masters. Since turning professional a little over two years ago, the 21-year-old Englishman has already won twice on the European Tour.

Like many young players just starting out as professionals, Fitzpatrick does not yet possess the power that some of his peers will enjoy at Oakmont. But what he lacks in distance, he makes up for in accuracy, currently ranking 10th on the European Tour in greens per round and in the top 50 in driving accuracy.

This will serve as an advantage at a course such as Oakmont, where it is important to keep the ball out of the rough.

If Fitzpatrick’s T-7 finish at the Masters is any indication, he's beginning to become comfortable with major championship pressure. Add that to the fact that he’s entering the U.S. Open with a hot hand, and this talented young player may just find himself in the mix over the weekend.

Brandt Snedeker (70-1)

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Last We Saw Snedeker: T-17 at the Dean & Deluca Invitational

2015 U.S. Open Finish: 8th

Best U.S. Open Finish: 8th in 2015

Brandt Snedeker has cooled off since his win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he does have four top-10 finishes in his last eight U.S. Open appearances, two of which have come in the past two years.

Snedeker is typically one of the best putters on tour but has dropped back to 79th in strokes gained from putting this season, which puts him toward the middle of the pack on the greens.  

Four of Snedeker’s eight career PGA Tour wins have come at U.S. Open venues (two at Torrey Pines and two at Pebble Beach), so the 35-year-old native of Nashville, Tennessee, has the skills necessary to win at U.S. Open-style courses.  

Oakmont, which is located just outside of Pittsburgh, is far different from those California coastal courses where Snedeker has performed so well in the past. But if he can manage to master Oakmont’s tricky green complexes this week, he'll have a shot.

All statistics via PGATour.com or EuropeanTour.com. All odds via Odds Shark.