US Open Odds 2016: Predictions for Top Favorites Heading into Oakmont
A challenging course at Oakmont Country Club will create a difficult U.S. Open, even for the best players in the world, when the tournament starts Thursday.
This Pennsylvania course is among the more historic in the United States, hosting numerous major events, including eight previous U.S. Opens. The last time this event was there, Angel Cabrera outlasted the field with a score of five strokes over par, something you are usually more likely to see at a local club rather than a professional event.
With the 18 holes likely to be just as difficult this time around, the pressure will be on the top players to stay consistent to remain ahead of a loaded field. There are a lot of options for potential winners, but here is a breakdown of the best available heading into the weekend.
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| Jason Day | 13-2 |
| Rory McIlroy | 15-2 |
| Jordan Spieth | 17-2 |
| Dustin Johnson | 12-1 |
| Justin Rose | 28-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 28-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 28-1 |
| Adam Scott | 30-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 33-1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 33-1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 35-1 |
| Danny Willett | 40-1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 40-1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 45-1 |
| Bubba Watson | 45-1 |
| Patrick Reed | 50-1 |
| Branden Grace | 50-1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 66-1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 70-1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 70-1 |
| Daniel Berger | 70-1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 70-1 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 75-1 |
| Lee Westwood | 80-1 |
| Paul Casey | 80-1 |
| Zach Johnson | 80-1 |
| J.B. Holmes | 90-1 |
| Billy Horschel | 90-1 |
| Marc Leishman | 90-1 |
| Jim Furyk | 100-1 |
| Kevin Chappell | 100-1 |
| Jason Dufner | 100-1 |
| Russell Knox | 100-1 |
Rory McIlroy
An impressive showing at the Memorial Tournament provides reason to be excited about Rory McIlroy heading into the week. Not only did he finish tied for fourth at minus-13 for the tournament, but a putting change made a huge difference, as noted by the PGA Tour Twitter account:
According to Alex Myers of Golf Digest, a 1.826 average in strokes gained through putting was the best four-round total of McIlroy's career.
The problem is it's difficult to trust this type of turnaround after just one tournament. With Oakmont expected to have some of the fastest greens you will see all year, players will need to have a lot of faith in their putting ability. An unfamiliar grip could lead to problems, even after McIlroy's recent success.
Meanwhile, McIlroy's length off the tee won't provide the same boost it usually does considering the narrow fairways and high rough. Accuracy and putting will win this tournament, and neither is trustworthy enough for the Northern Irish star.
Although he has the talent and the momentum to be a top contender, McIlroy won't be able to win his second U.S. Open this week.
Prediction: Top 10
Jason Day
Being the No. 1 player in the world is not always easy. Jason Day discussed this week the pressure that comes with being the favorite for just about every tournament, per Rebecca Bryan of Agence France-Presse (via Yahoo Sports):
"Everyone is expecting you each week to compete and play well and win and sometimes that can be stressful.
I've just got to focus on getting the process right, and if I can do that then hopefully the US Open will time perfectly and I can peak there and play well there.
"
Of course, Day has handled it well with three victories in 2016, including last month at the Players Championship. His tie for 10th at the Masters Tournament was relatively disappointing, but he showed he can be a threat even when he isn't playing his best.
Beyond his consistency, Day is perfectly set up for this course thanks to his short game. According to the PGA Tour's official website, the Australian is the top putter in the world this season with 1.145 strokes gained on the green while also ranking first with a 64.62 sand save percentage.
This course is loaded with dangerous bunkers and difficult greens, but Day should be able to navigate this better than anyone else in the field.
Even though lack of accuracy off the tee could be an issue, he has the best chance to take home another major title.
Prediction: 1st
Jordan Spieth
The player who used to be considered the most consistent player on tour, Jordan Spieth, has been all over the place in recent months.
Spieth notably finished second at the 2016 Masters thanks to a quadruple bogey in the final round, knocking him out of first place and becoming one of the bigger collapses in recent years. Since then, the American has one win in four events but also finished tied for 18th (AT&T Byron Nelson), tied for 57th (Memorial Tournament) and has one missed cut (the Players Championship).
The win, while always difficult at this level, came against a relatively light field at the Dean & DeLuca Invitational at the end of May. Aside from Spieth, Adam Scott was the only other top-10 player in the world rankings in attendance.
His most recent performance at the Memorial, where he ended up outside the top 50, is much more head-turning.
Spieth has many good events ahead of him, but right now it seems like he hasn't been able to get over his Masters defeat and lacks the consistency needed to win a major. Considering how damaging a few mistakes can be at Oakmont, expect a disappointing showing for the talented player.
Prediction: Outside top 25
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