Ranking the Top 25 Golfers Heading into the 2016 US Open
The U.S. Open returns this year to the venue where it’s been contested more than any other: Oakmont Country Club outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Regarded as one of the most difficult tracks in the world, and almost universally agreed to have the quickest, most difficult putting surfaces anywhere, Oakmont promises to provide the sternest of tests. Indeed, the winning score the last time the U.S. Open was contested at the venue was five over par (Angel Cabrera, 2007).
Who’s poised to play well? In order to figure that out, we first took a look at the best overall players in terms of Official World Golf Ranking. Then we factored in performance this season with an emphasis on recent play.
And while the U.S. Open is contested at a different venue each year, the USGA tends to favor tight tracks with difficult driving conditions and penal rough, as well as fast, often undulating, putting surfaces. Past U.S. Open performance is somewhat relevant, and it certainly gives an indication of who can handle the maddening mental grind that is the United States’ national championship in golf.
With course setup presumed to be similar to ’07, the results of those who played in that Open are of relevance in the ranking, as is the experience of having played the track.
Beyond that, we gave a nod to key stats for Oakmont, such as strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approaching the green, as driving and approach play will be critical. We assume no one will putt particularly well and it will be a “who putts the least bad” sort of situation.
With all that out of the way, on to the ranking.
25. Paul Casey
1 of 25
OWGR: 26
Best of 2016: Paul Casey finished tied for fourth at the Masters, one of his three top-10 finishes on the year. He's missed just three cuts in 13 starts.
U.S. Open History: Casey competed at Oakmont in 2007, playing well and tying for 10th. He's made seven of 12 U.S. Open cuts.
Why He's Ranked Here: A missed cut at the Memorial (thanks to a second-round 77), Paul Casey's most recent start, doesn't inspire confidence. However, the 38-year-old has had a couple of weeks off to hone his game ahead of the season's second major. And as a veteran who did good work at Oakmont the last time around, Casey deserves the No. 25 spot.
24. Zach Johnson
2 of 25
OWGR: 21
Best of 2016: Zach Johnson has made 12 of 15 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with three top-10 finishes. He finished fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and tied for 17th at the Dean & DeLuca Invitational in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: Johnson has made seven of 12 cuts in past U.S. Opens. He tied for 40th at Pinehurst No. 2 and tied for 72nd at Chambers Bay last year. He has never finished inside the top 25 at the competition. ZJ finished 45th at Oakmont in 2007.
Why He's Ranked Here: Another veteran who competed at Oakmont in 2007, Johnson edges out Casey due to superior recent performance and better play on and around the green. Johnson ranks 30th in strokes gained: around-the-green, while Casey ranks 76th. Johnson is 63rd in putting, while Casey is 127th.
23. J.B. Holmes
3 of 25
OWGR: 19
Best of 2016: J.B. Holmes has made 11 of 12 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with four top-10 finishes, including a tie for fourth at the Masters. He tied for fourth at the Memorial in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: Holmes has made the cut in four of six U.S. Opens. He did his best work at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014, finishing tied for 17th. He tied for 27th at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: Strong in his most recent start, Holmes is out to prove bomb-and-gouge can work at Oakmont. And given his top-30 finishes at the two most recent Open venues, a top-25 finish isn't at all out of the question. Seventh on tour in SG:OTT, Holmes is well ahead of Casey and Johnson in that critical department.
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22. Lee Westwood
4 of 25
OWGR: 33
Best of 2016: Playing primarily on the European Tour this season, Lee Westwood has finished in the top 15 in his last four starts, tying for eighth at the Nordea Masters in his most recent effort.
U.S. Open History: A veteran of 16 U.S. Opens, Westwood tied for 36th at Oakmont in 2007. He's finished third two times among those 16 tries with five total top-10 finishes.
Why He's Ranked Here: Experience earns Westwood the spot ahead of Holmes, particularly his turn at Oakmont in '07. And at 43, he's still a flusher off the tee and into greens, which will be key at the Pittsburgh-area course.
21. Charl Schwartzel
5 of 25
OWGR: 22
Best of 2016: Charl Schwartzel won the Valspar Championship in March. The South African has totaled seven top-25 finishes in 11 starts and tied for 11th at the Memorial in his most recent action.
U.S. Open History: Schwartzel tied for 30th at Oakmont in 2007. He's made seven of nine cuts in the U.S Open and finished seventh at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: Schwartzel nudges out Westwood on account of superior recent play (and on the PGA Tour). He's also ninth on tour in SG: tee-to-green, which is superb (and we don't have data for Westwood, as he hasn't played enough PGA Tour events this season).
20. Danny Willett
6 of 25
OWGR: 9
Best of 2016: In addition to winning the Masters, Danny Willett tied for third at both WGC stroke play events this season. He finished third at the BMW PGA Championship (European Tour) in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: Willett missed the cut at Chambers Bay last year. He tied for 45th at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014.
Why He's Ranked Here: Willett has been showing up at big events this year. He'll have had a week of practice after a strong performance on the European Tour. While he lacks the pedigree of some of the golfers above him on this list, he's no doubt hotter than those in the Nos. 21 through 25 spots.
19. Martin Kaymer
7 of 25
OWGR: 52
Best of 2016: On the PGA Tour, Martin Kaymer has made six of seven cuts this season. On the European Tour, he's recorded top-10 finishes in his last three starts.
U.S. Open History: The winner at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014, Martin Kaymer has made six of eight U.S. Open cuts. He's totaled three top-15 finishes, including a tie for eighth in 2010.
Why He's Ranked Here: Kaymer has played primarily on the European Tour since forfeiting his PGA Tour card. He's done good work internationally of late. His history as a past U.S. Open winner and great wealth of U.S. Open experience allow him to sneak ahead of Willett.
18. Branden Grace
8 of 25
OWGR: 12
Best of 2016: Branden Grace won the RBC Heritage in April. Through 10 starts on the PGA Tour this season, he's made eight cuts with three top-10 finishes and six top-25s.
U.S. Open History: Grace tied for fourth at Chambers Bay last year following a late meltdown. He made the cut once among his other two U.S. Open starts.
Why He's Ranked Here: An impressive performance at a difficult U.S. Open venue last year tips the scales in Grace's favor, as does the good work he's done off the tee this season. Grace is 26th on tour in SG:OTT.
17. Jim Furyk
9 of 25
OWGR: 29
Best of 2016: Out for much of the season with a wrist injury, Jim Furyk has made just four starts on the PGA Tour this season. He tied for 52nd at the Memorial Tournament in his most recent start. He's made two cuts and missed a pair.
U.S. Open History: West Chester, Pennsylvania, native Furyk finished second at Oakmont in 2007. He's made 18 of 21 cuts at the nation's championship and won in 2003 at Olympia Fields.
Why He's Ranked Here: Placing Furyk at No. 17 is based on the assumption he's been practicing hard ahead of the U.S. Open near his hometown. Also assumed: his wrist is fully healed. A tie for second the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont goes a long way here as well.
16. Brandt Snedeker
10 of 25
OWGR: 18
Best of 2016: Snedeker won the Farmers Insurance Open amid difficult conditions. He's totaled five top-10 finishes in 17 starts and tied for 10th at the Masters.
U.S. Open History: Snedeker tied for ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014 and came in eighth at Chambers Bay last year. He’s made seven of nine cuts at the U.S. Open in his career, all of them top-25 finishes. Sneds competed in the 2007 U.S. Open at Oakmont, finishing tied for 23rd.
Why He's Ranked Here: Snedeker doesn't have the impressive U.S. Open resume of Jim Furyk. He does, however, have a win this season and has been playing more golf. He, too, has Oakmont experience.
15. Patrick Reed
11 of 25
OWGR: 11
Best of 2016: Patrick Reed hasn't won this year, but he has recorded three second-place finishes. He's made 14 of 17 cuts with nine top-10 finishes.
U.S. Open History: Reed tied for 35th at Pinehurst No. 2 in his first U.S. Open in 2014 and tied for 14th at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: Reed's work off the tee (13th in SG: tee-to-green) affords him the higher ranking here over the occasionally wayward Mr. Snedeker who trumps him in experience and has tried his luck at Oakmont in the past.
14. Sergio Garcia
12 of 25
OWGR: 13
Best of 2016: A winner at the AT&T Byron Nelson his last time out, Sergio Garcia also finished second at the Honda Classic in February. He's totaled six top-25 finishes in 10 starts.
U.S. Open History: Sergio has competed in 16 U.S. Opens, making 14 cuts and totaled four top-10 finishes. He tied for 18th at Chambers Bay last year. A tie for third in 2005 is his best result.
Why He's Ranked Here: Garcia is on form, certainly, but the Spaniard's lack of any significant success in past U.S. Opens keeps him outside of the top 10. The missed cut last time at Oakmont doesn't bolster his case either.
13. Rickie Fowler
13 of 25
OWGR: 5
Best of 2016: Rickie Fowler finished second in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. He has totaled nine top-25 finishes in 14 starts, although he has missed the cut in three of his last five starts. Fowler won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship on the European Tour in January.
U.S. Open History: Fowler missed the cut at Chambers Bay last year but performed well in his two prior U.S. Opens. The California native finished tied for second in 2014 and tied for 10th in 2013.
Why He's Ranked Here: Fifth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, Fowler looks poised to stay out of the thick stuff at Oakmont. It's his recent run of poor results that keeps him from placing higher. However, with a week off ahead of the U.S. Open to get things right with swing coach Butch Harmon, you'd have to assume Fowler will have things sorted out when he arrives at Oakmont.
12. Brooks Koepka
14 of 25
OWGR: 17
Best of 2016: A second-place finisher in a playoff at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Brooks Koepka has made 12 of 15 cuts this season with six top-10 finishes. He tied for second at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in his most recent start: a good sign heading ot Oakmont.
U.S. Open History: Koepka finished tied for fourth at the U.S. Open in 2014 and tied for 18th at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: Koepka doesn't have a ton of U.S. Open experience, but he's done quite well in his two attempts. Also, he's a calm, confident and unflappable player, which will serve him well. The fact that's he's playing good golf right now doesn't hurt either. It's tough to see him slowing down much at Oakmont. Thus, the No. 12 spot makes sense given his hot hand, past U.S. Open play and aforementioned demeanor.
11. Matt Kuchar
15 of 25
OWGR: 16
Best of 2016: Matt Kuchar has made 15 of 16 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with 11 top-25 finishes. He finished third twice, most recently at the AT&T Byron Nelson in late May. Kuch has tallied top-10 finishes in his last four starts, including three in the top five.
U.S. Open History: Kuchar tied for sixth at the 2010 U.S. Open and tied for 12th at each of the last two. Kuch has made eight of 13 cuts at the season's second major and notably tied for 14th as an amateur in 1998.
Why He's Ranked Here: He's no worse than 45th in any of the strokes gained statistics, is currently on form and has performed well in past Opens. Kuchar is in a virtual dead heat for the No. 10 spot but lands here.
10. Henrik Stenson
16 of 25
OWGR: 7
Best of 2016: Henrik Stenson's best finish on the PGA Tour this season came at the Shell Houston Open. The Swede has made seven of nine cuts with five top-25 finishes. Although he missed the cut in his last two PGA Tour starts, Stenson tied for fourth at the Nordea Masters on the European Tour.
U.S. Open History: Stenson has made seven of nine cuts at the U.S. Open. He tied for fourth at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014 and tied for 27th at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: Stenson, who is 22nd this season in strokes gained off the tee and second in strokes gained approaching the green, has been a bit better in ball-striking than Kuchar, and his history of U.S. Open performances is more solid. Were it not for the the pair of missed cuts in his two most recent PGA Tour starts, he'd place higher in this ranking.
9. Hideki Matsuyama
17 of 25
OWGR: 15
Best of 2016: Hideki Matsuyama has made 11 of 14 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with five top-10 finishes. His lone win came at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. After tying for seventh at The Players Championship, Matsuyama missed the cut at the Memorial in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: Matsuyama tied for 18th at Chambers Bay last year. In his two previous U.S. Open attempts, he tied for 10th at Merion in 2013 and tied for 35th at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014.
Why He's Ranked Here: A superb ball-striker, it's no surprise that Matsuyama has played well in past U.S. Opens. While he missed the cut at Memorial in his most recent event, he'll have had plenty of time to remedy what was awry in his swing. Ninth on tour in strokes gained off the tee and third in strokes gained approaching the green, it's hard to imagine Matsuyama finishing outside of the top 10.
8. Bubba Watson
18 of 25
OWGR: 4
Best of 2016: Bubba Watson hasn't missed a cut this year. He won the Northern Trust Open in February and has totaled three top-10 finishes. He tied for 65th at the Memorial in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: Bubba missed the cut in the last two U.S. Opens. He did, however, finish fifth at the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2007.
Why He's Ranked Here: Always the wild card, one could see Bubba winning at Oakmont or getting frustrated, blowing up and missing the cut. On paper, he's well-rounded enough to contend. We need look no further than the fact he finished fifth the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont. That outing, coupled with his prodigious talent, overcomes his recent lackluster results to earn the left-hander the No. 8 spot.
7. Phil Mickelson
19 of 25
OWGR: 20
Best of 2016: Mickelson has made 10 of 14 cuts in 2016 with five top-10 finishes. While his missed cut at the Masters was a disappointment, he has been rounding into form with a tie for 20th at the Memorial and an impressive showing in Memphis at the FedEx St. Jude Classic where he tied for second.
U.S. Open History: Mickelson's history of runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open is well-known. He has placed second or tied for second six times in his 25 U.S. Open appearances. He tied for 64th at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: Mickelson looks to be peaking at just the right time for the U.S. Open, showing strong form in Memphis. However, his erratic driving is still a concern at a course that places a premium on accuracy. His U.S. Open setup experience and past performance at Oakmont, however, combined with the belief that he won't have to hit driver often, give him an edge over Bubba Watson.
6. Adam Scott
20 of 25
OWGR: 8
Best of 2016: In 12 starts on tour this season, Adam Scott has a pair of wins and a pair of second-place finishes. However, he hasn't recorded a top-10 finish since winning the WGC-Cadillac Championship in March.
U.S. Open History: Scott tied for fourth at Chambers Bay last year and for ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 the year prior. He's made eight cuts in 14 appearances and missed the cut the last time the tournament was contested at Oakmont.
Why He's Ranked Here: Slotting Scott outside of the top five seems right given his slight drop-off in recent form. However, his strong performances at recent U.S. Open venues, experience at Oakmont and position as one of the tour's best from tee to green should earn him serious consideration. Obviously better than Mickelson off the tee, he's positioned ahead of the left-hander.
5. Justin Rose
21 of 25
OWGR: 10
Best of 2016: Justin Rose's best finish on the PGA Tour came at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he finished third. He tied for 19th at the Players in his most recent tour action. Overall, Rose has tallied five top-10 finishes in 11 starts.
U.S. Open History: Rose won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion and has finished inside the top 30 in his last four Open attempts. Overall, he's made six of 10 U.S. Open cuts with five top-25 finishes.
Why He's Ranked Here: All of this is based on the assumption that Rose's back is healthy enough to not compromise his play, and that he's been able to practice enough to hone his game for this year's Open. Fourth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, Rose is poised to excel in that critical area at Oakmont. He's been a bit better than Scott on and around the greens and has the confidence of a past U.S. Open winner to draw on, which Scott doesn't. Rose comes in just a bit ahead of Scotty here.
4. Dustin Johnson
22 of 25
OWGR: 6
Best of 2016: Dustin Johnson hasn't missed a cut on the PGA Tour in 14 starts. Even more impressive, he's recorded seven top-10 finishes. Recently, DJ tied for 12th at the Byron Nelson, finished third at the Memorial and, most relevantly, finished fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Classic thanks to a Sunday 63.
U.S. Open History: Johnson came up heartbreakingly short at Chambers Bay last year, three-putting the final hole to finish tied for second. He's missed just one cut in eight U.S. Open tries, notching three top-10 finishes.
Why He's Ranked Here: While he may not seem like the classic U.S. Open winner and isn't a plodding course manager, Johnson hits it long and high and can hack the ball out of deep rough. Heck, he should already be a U.S. Open champion. After an on-form showing in Memphis, placing DJ fourth isn't overselling him. His detached "don't overthink it" demeanor could serve him well at a course that's sure to frustrate.
3. Jordan Spieth
23 of 25
OWGR: 2
Best of 2016: The presumed winner of the Masters until his 12th-hole meltdown, Jordan Spieth has won twice on tour this season, including at the Dean & Deluca Invitational two starts ago. Overall, he's made 11 of 13 cuts with five top-10 finishes.
U.S. Open History: The man left standing after Dustin Johnson's 72nd-hole three-putt at Chambers Bay last year, Jordan Spieth also tied for 17th at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014. He missed the cut at Merion in 2013.
Why He's Ranked Here: Placing the reigning U.S. Open winner third makes sense given an extremely lackluster showing in his most recent start, a 57th-place finish at the Memorial. And while his driving hasn't been as bad as is perceived (he's currently 18th in strokes gained off the tee), his iron play has been poor. Spieth is a great putter, sure, but consistently putting from the wrong locations on Oakmont's large, undulating greens is a recipe for three-putts (and worse).
2. Rory McIlroy
24 of 25
OWGR: 3
Best of 2016: While he hasn't won on the PGA Tour this season, McIlroy did hoist a trophy on the European circuit, winning the Irish Open. McIlroy has made 10 of 11 PGA Tour cuts with five top-10 finishes. He tied for fourth at the Memorial in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: McIlroy tied for ninth at Chambers Bay last year. He won the 2011 U.S. Open at soft-and-receptive Congressional. Overall, he's made five of seven U.S. Open cuts with four top-25 finishes.
Why He's Ranked Here: Rory comes in slightly ahead of the reigning U.S. Open champion thanks to the consistent high quality of his recent play. The Ulsterman hasn't finished outside the top 15 in his last six starts and is better off the tee than Spieth (a critical component of playing well at Oakmont).
1. Jason Day
25 of 25
OWGR: 1
Best of 2016: With the best record on the PGA Tour this season, Jason Day has won three times in 11 starts, including The Players Championship. He's totaled six top-10 finishes and tied for 10th at the Masters. Day tied for 27th at the Memorial in his most recent start.
U.S. Open History: The Australian has made the cut in all five of his U.S. Open starts. He’s finished inside the top five in three appearances. Day tied for fourth at Pinehurst No. 2 and for ninth at Chambers Bay last year.
Why He's Ranked Here: More wins than anyone else. Quality recent play. A strong U.S. Open record. Tour leader in strokes gained from putting and total strokes gained. Rested and practiced ahead of the season's second major. What else is there to say?
Stats via PGATour.com
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