Belmont Stakes Odds 2016: Final Predictions on Latest Vegas Betting Lines
Exaggerator is the clear favourite to win the 2016 Belmont Stakes at Elmont, New York, on Saturday. And the latest Las Vegas lines put Suddenbreakingnews and the Todd Pletcher-trained Stradivari as the contenders most likely to score an upset at Belmont Park.
It's clear Exaggerator's own upset win over Triple Crown-chasing Nyquist at the Preakness Stakes is still influencing the oddsmakers.
Here are the latest betting lines before the big race, per Odds Shark:
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| Horse | Odds |
| Exaggerator | 5-4 |
| Stadivari | 7-1 |
| Suddenbreakingnews | 7-1 |
| Cherry Wine | 8-1 |
| Destin | 9-1 |
| Brody's Cause | 14-1 |
| Governor Malibu | 14-1 |
| Lani | 16-1 |
| Creator | 16-1 |
| Gettysburg | 40-1 |
| Seeking the Soul | 40-1 |
| Forever d'Oro | 40-1 |
| Trojan Nation | 40-1 |
Predictions
Negotiating the first turn on the course will determine how well the favorite runs at Belmont Park. It's a concern for trainer Keith Desormeaux as his horse prepares to run from post position 11, according to Larry Fine of Reuters:
"Just because it's a little shorter run into the first turn here, it seems it would be a disadvantage to be on the outside.
If I had a speed horse, I'd be worried. But Exaggerator breaks, drops the bit and relaxes so he should have plenty of opportunity to drop in closer to the rail going into that first turn.
"
Strangely enough, though, it's not a concern shared by jockey Kent Desormeaux. The Hall of Fame rider explained, per Nicholas Godfrey of the Racing Post: "I think it's a wonderful post position. I can't see any horses that will cross over on him...we can establish position, preferably, without getting a grain of sand in his face."
Perhaps the bigger question, though, is how much will Exaggerator have left in New York, having already run the first two legs of the Triple Crown slate? Trying to stay in contention over a mile and four furlongs is likely to sap a horse that's experienced a tough workload recently.
Despite the favourable odds, expect Exaggerator to lag at a vital moment and not have enough left for a decisive late run. The horse will place but be denied another win.
If the winner is to come from the rest of the field, count on Suddenbreakingnews to deliver. This is a horse with staying power, along with natural talent as a closer, something noted by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times.
CBS Boston's Kevin Martin sees Suddenbreakingnews as a good bet to win, provided he can avoid the tough start he experienced at the Kentucky Derby, when the horse slipped "nearly thirty lengths behind the pace on the backstretch."
Yet finishing fifth from such a disadvantageous position offered proof of this horse's closing quality. Given the distances to be covered at Belmont Park, boasting a flair for a late surge is a major advantage.
It's one that could take Suddenbreakingnews home as the winner.
If you're looking for a horse to show, Pletcher's Destin has to be a strong bet. Pletcher's other horse, Stradivari, is the speed merchant, but that quality doesn't ideally fit the long haul on a mile-and-a-half course.
Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post views Destin as the perfect blend of speed and stamina, saying: "He likes to sit off the pace with enough tactical speed to gain ground on the turn and down the stretch."
That mix could help Destin stay in touch long enough to join the breakaway of the front two, even if he won't ultimately match their pace.
Final Predictions: To Win, Suddenbreakingnews. Place, Exaggerator. Show, Destin.
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