Belmont Stakes Entries 2016: Race-Day Predictions for All Horses and Jockeys
On the surface, the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes in Elmont, New York, is more about what is missing than anything else.
No Triple Crown will hang in the balance Saturday, and fans won’t even get to see Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist square off with Preakness winner Exaggerator in a rubber match. Nyquist didn’t enter the race due to a fever and elevated white blood cell count, per Joe Drape of the New York Times.
Still, Exaggerator will look to add a second Triple Crown race victory to his 2016 resume against a field that features challengers in Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews and Cherry Wine, among others.
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With that in mind, here is a look at the complete field and predicted finishes for each horse and jockey. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Thursday at 5 p.m. ET.
| 1 | Governor Malibu | Joel Rosario | Christophe Clement | 14-1 | 7 |
| 2 | Destin | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 9-1 | 6 |
| 3 | Cherry Wine | Corey Lanerie | Dale Romans | 8-1 | 4 |
| 4 | Suddenbreakingnews | Mike Smith | Donnie Von Hemel | 7-1 | 3 |
| 5 | Stradivari | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 7-1 | 2 |
| 6 | Gettysburg | Paco Lopez | Steve Asmussen | 40-1 | 11 |
| 7 | Seeking the Soul | Florent Geroux | Dallas Stewart | 40-1 | 13 |
| 8 | Forever d'Oro | Jose Ortiz | Dallas Stewart | 40-1 | 12 |
| 9 | Trojan Nation | Aaron Gryder | Paddy Gallagher | 40-1 | 10 |
| 10 | Lani | Yutaka Take | Mikio Matsunaga | 16-1 | 5 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | Kent Desormeaux | Keith Desormeaux | 5-4 | 1 |
| 12 | Brody's Cause | Luis Saez | Dale Romans | 14-1 | 9 |
| 13 | Creator | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Steve Asmussen | 16-1 | 8 |
Predicted Winner: Exaggerator
Exaggerator jumps out from that field, and with good reason. He ended Nyquist’s Triple Crown bid with a victory at the Preakness and finished a close second at the Kentucky Derby. He also won the Santa Anita Derby and is coming into Saturday’s race with an impressive streak.
According to the Belmont Stakes’ official website, Exaggerator has finished in the money in eight of nine straight graded stakes starts.
What’s more, the 1 ½-mile race at Elmont should play into Exaggerator’s hands, given how he won the Preakness and nearly won the Kentucky Derby. He made a charge toward the front of the field before the finishing kick in each Triple Crown leg.
He will have plenty of room to set himself up in ideal position during the lengthy Belmont, and the race’s official website even said he posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 101 at the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby, which was the longest race of his career. Length doesn’t appear to impact Exaggerator’s speed, and he will use that to his advantage Saturday.
What’s more, jockey Kent Desormeaux is an experienced Hall of Famer who understands how to win on this track. He already has a victory at the Belmont Stakes (2009 with Summer Bird) to go along with his three wins at the Kentucky Derby and three wins at the Preakness. Furthermore, he is familiar with Exaggerator’s style after riding him in the first two legs of this year’s Triple Crown.
Desormeaux has space to operate from the No. 11 gate during the longer race, so he doesn’t have to worry about being pushed too far outside in the early going.
While Exaggerator will ultimately win, his team shouldn’t overlook Stradivari after he finished in fourth place at the Preakness. However, Stradivari has run only four races, and Saturday’s will be just his second run at the graded stakes level. There is just not enough on his resume yet to trust him on this big stage against a horse like Exaggerator.
Stradivari, Preakness runner-up Cherry Wine and Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher Suddenbreakingnews are also in the Nos. 3-5 posts, which means Exaggerator can avoid them out of the gates from No. 11 and settle in just off the pace in the early going.
From there, Desormeaux can find the ideal time to make a late charge—just as he did in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness—and ride to victory.
He will have to ensure there is enough space between him and Suddenbreakingnews on the finishing kick. Melissa Bauer-Herzog of America’s Best Racing (h/t ESPN.com) wrote, “Suddenbreakingnews was one of the more impressive closers in the Kentucky Derby, rallying from nearly 28 lengths back at the second call of the race to finish fifth, 4-¾ lengths behind Nyquist.”
Desormeaux suggested he plans on doing just that, per Richard Rosenblatt of the Associated Press:
"It's a wonderful, wonderful position. I can't see any horse that would cross over on him. I'd like to establish position preferably without him getting a grain of sand in his face…if I could have a dream run ... I dream him forwardly placed and just being able, dreamingly, to decide when to pull the trigger.
"
Desormeaux has the strategy planned out, and Exaggerator will prove why he is such a heavy favorite with another win Saturday.
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