Belmont Stakes Field 2016: Horses and Jockeys Worth Backing in 148th Race
Preakness winner Exaggerator is the deserved favourite for the 2016 Belmont Stakes, but he will have to overcome a tough starting position when he lines up at the 11th post.
It's the final leg of the Triple Crown schedule, and Exaggerator won't have to scan the field long to find worthy challengers, with Suddenbreakingnews chief among them.
Read on for the top four horses and jockeys worth backing in Elmont, New York.
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Exaggerator, Kent Desormeaux
It's always best to start with the favourite, and the race festival's official site has the Preakness winner at 9-5, while Mike Dempsey of Odds Shark goes with 5-4. Those are strong odds, but there's more than one reason to bet against Exaggerator at Belmont Park.
First, the betting favourite often doesn't ride to triumph at Belmont, as Dempsey pointed out: "Last year American Pharoah become the first winning betting favourite in the Belmont Stakes since Afleet Alex in 2005. Just three betting favourites in the past 20 years have made it to the winner’s circle in the Belmont."
History isn't the only thing going against a horse given the 11th post position in a 13-strong field. It's not a position welcomed by trainer Keith Desormeaux, according to Nicholas Godfrey of the Racing Post:
"The gates here are placed around the wire, which means there's not that much of a run-up.
It's not as inconsequential as it is in the other two races, so I'd prefer not to be on the outside, because we have to take back and drop in. Three-sixteenths (to the turn) is a decent run, but not enough to say that the gates don't matter.
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The weight of history and the daunting nature of the course are a lot for any horse to compete against. But not everybody is convinced the horse that ended Nyquist's bid for the Triple Crown won't be up for the challenge.
Olivia Newman of HorseRacingNation.com doesn't see any signs of fatigue, as she said: "The Triple Crown trail is designed to tire a horse, and he doesn't look the slightest bit worn out."
Running all three legs of the Triple Crown slate may appear a disadvantage, but Exaggerator is now a horse in peak race condition. With three-time Kentucky derby winner Kent Desormeaux in the saddle, many are still likely to lump on the favourite.
Suddenbreakingnews, Mike Smith
A model of consistency, Suddenbreakingnews has the chance to prove his credentials by coming in ahead of Exaggerator in New York. In nine starts, the horse has run "first or second seven times and never [finished] worse than fifth," according to Alicia Wincze Hughes of the Lexington Herald Leader.
It's a solid record to enter any major race with, yet the colt's style as a closer will be more significant in a race covering one mile and four furlongs.
Speed is unlikely to win the day at Belmont Park, so a horse who can stay steadily in contention over the long haul will always seem like a good bet.
In this context, 7-1 is a very good price, per OddsShark.com.
Destin, Javier Castellano and Stradivari, John Velazquez
Suddenbreakingnews is the most obvious threat to Exaggerator, but smart eyes will also be cast toward Todd Pletcher-trained pair Stradivari and Destin.
Writing for Horse Racing Nation, Brian Zipse described the duo as "very talented, relatively fresh, and perhaps most importantly, the two horses with the most speed in an otherwise paceless race."
It will be interesting to see exactly how Pletcher uses these two horses at Belmont. One strategy could involve Stradivari setting an early pace to hold the lead for "more accomplished" Destin, according to Dawna Wood of New York Racehorse.
One thing that is clear is the man who has won twice previously at the Belmont knows the shrewdest way to successfully navigate the course.
Perhaps Pletcher's expertise has driven the favourable odds for both Destin and Stradivari. The former is at 9-1, while Stradivari is priced at 7-1, per OddsShark.com.
There are plenty of quality contenders worth backing in a 13-horse field, even though this race is sure to miss Nyquist after the Kentucky Derby winner withdrew with illness.
Of the remaining field, Exaggerator still looks the best bet, but the chequered history of betting favourites at Elmont is sure to give plenty pause for thought.
Those who do waver will have to decide which they trust more, Pletcher's experience or the stamina for a long race boasted by Suddenbreakingnews.
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