Belmont Stakes 2016 Odds: Latest Vegas Lines, Payout Info and Predictions
Although the 2016 Belmont Stakes features a clear favorite in Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator, the race's 12-furlong distance makes it the most difficult Triple Crown race to forecast. It's a unique test of talent, endurance and strategy at the end of a five-week journey.
Unfortunately, a matchup between Exaggerator and Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist won't come to fruition. The Kentucky Derby winner didn't enter Belmont because of a fever and an elevated white blood cell count, per Joe Drape of the New York Times.
Let's check out all of the horses that did join the Belmont field, though. That's followed by a look at the purse details, a race preview and predictions for which horses will finish in the money Saturday.
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2016 Belmont Stakes Field
| 1 | Governor Malibu | Joel Rosario | 14-1 |
| 2 | Destin | Javier Castellano | 9-1 |
| 3 | Cherry Wine | Corey Lanerie | 8-1 |
| 4 | Suddenbreakingnews | Mike Smith | 7-1 |
| 5 | Stradivari | John Velazquez | 7-1 |
| 6 | Gettysburg | Paco Lopez | 40-1 |
| 7 | Seeking The Soul | Florent Geroux | 40-1 |
| 8 | Forever d'Oro | Jose Ortiz | 40-1 |
| 9 | Trojan Nation | Aaron Gryder | 40-1 |
| 10 | Lani | Yutaka Take | 16-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | Kent Desormeaux | 5-4 |
| 12 | Brody's Cause | Luis Saez | 14-1 |
| 13 | Creator | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 16-1 |
148th Running Payout Info
| Total Purse | $1,500,000 |
| 1st | $800,000 |
| 2nd | $280,000 |
| 3rd | $150,000 |
| 4th | $100,000 |
| 5th | $60,000 |
| 6th | $45,000 |
| 7th | $35,000 |
| 8th | $30,000 |
Race Preview
Exaggerator came up short against Nyquist four times before finally exacting some revenge in the Preakness. Now, with his fiercest rival out of the picture for the time being, he'll get a chance to further his case as the top three-year-old horse.
The race sets up nicely for the favorite. At the No. 11 post, he's separated from most of the other contenders, which should allow jockey Kent Desormeaux to find a comfort zone quickly, and there's not a ton of early pace to force difficult decisions early on.
"It's a wonderful, wonderful position," Desormeaux said, per Richard Rosenblatt of the Associated Press. "I can't see any horse that would cross over on him. I'd like to establish position preferably without him getting a grain of sand in his face."
If he's allowed to set a reasonable pace or sit just off the lead with some moderate fractions throughout the first half of the race, it's hard to see anything other than a first-place finish. Endurance would become far less of a concern under those circumstances.
His top competitors come with question marks. Stradivari remains a potent challenger, but it's unclear whether he's ready to peak quite yet. The Belmont will mark just his fifth career race, with the Preakness being the only other one at the graded stakes level.
He finished fourth at Pimlico three weeks ago in sloppy conditions, and it never seemed like he got a chance to run free until it was too late. Yet concerns will continue to linger when the only victories on his resume are a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park and an allowance at Keeneland.
That said, Stradivari's overall performance in the Preakness did rate favorably to the marquee names, according to Craig Milkowski of Timeform US:
Lani is worthy of some attention from the long-shot brigade. The UAE Derby winner showed progress between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. If that trend continues, he could pull off the upset.
His connections don't seem too concerned about the vaunted distance. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form highlighted one of the colt's aggressive workouts where he posted solid times despite the workload:
While a few other horses such as Destin and Suddenbreakingnews are capable of earning their big breakthrough Saturday, none of them has the track record of Exaggerator. He's by far the most reliable horse in the field.
It's going to take an unexpected development—perhaps a lightning pace early or just a sheer lack of energy at the end of the Triple Crown season—to knock him off. A victory would help set the table for a hyped rematch with Nyquist down the road, potentially in the Breeders' Cup Classic on November 5.
Predictions: 1. Exaggerator 2. Stradivari 3. Lani
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