Preview and Predictions for the 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic
Following William McGirt's surprise victory at the Memorial Tournament, the first of his career, the PGA Tour heads south to Memphis, Tennessee, and TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and company are due to face a tricky par-70 layout, which PGATour.com's fantasy expert, Rob Bolton, describes as a "second shot golf course," writing:
"...it's arguably best received as one of the most consistent tests. TPC Southwind put up its usual fight with a scoring average of 70.933 in 2015. For successful intents and purposes, it's a second-shot track. Consider that none of the 11 on the final leaderboard ranked inside the top 10 in either distance off the tee or fairways hit, but six landed inside the top 10 in greens in regulation.
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Who's poised to play well in Memphis? What are the most significant storylines?
Click through for all the details.
Tournament Information
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Defending Champion: Fabian Gomez
Where
Course: TPC Southwind
Length: 7,239 yards
Par: 70
What
Total Purse: $6,200,000
Winning Share: $1,116,000
FedExCup Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday, 3:30-6:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday-Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS)
Biggest Storylines
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Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson headline the field with the U.S. Open at Oakmont just a week a way. And, of course, it’s time for the obligatory mention that Phil Mickelson, now 45, still hasn’t won the U.S. Open, although he’s finished second six times. Lefty will be looking for another strong showing at the venue where he finished third last year as he arrives at TPC Southwind off his game, having missed the cut in three of his last four starts.
With Luke Donald, Patrick Rodgers and Brendan Steele bowing out after making it through U.S. Open qualifying, the FedEx St. Jude is seeing something of a dissolution of what already wasn’t a particularly strong field of 154 as most top players, of course, choose to rest and fine-tune ahead of next week’s U.S. Open.
Any golfer inside the top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking not otherwise qualified after this week’s action automatically secures a spot at Oakmont next week. Among those looking to slide inside the top 60: Ryan Palmer and Fabian Gomez.
An interesting tidbit: No winner of the FedEx St. Jude Classic (or any event immediately preceding the U.S. Open), has ever gone on to win the season’s second major.
Per fantasy experts GolfStrat’s newsletter, approaches from the 150- to 200-yard range will be key, as will greens in regulation and a player’s proximity to the hole.
The Favorites
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Dustin Johnson: DJ faltered a bit in key stretches at the Memorial last week, but a third-place finish is a third-place finish. While he missed the cut at TPC Southwind last year, the sauntering Carolinian bomber won here in 2012.
Phil Mickelson: Lefty followed up a missed cut at The Players with a top-25 effort at the Memorial. He’s been a part of the Sunday conversation in Memphis the last three years, finishing third in his most recent attempt.
Brooks Koepka: BK hasn’t put a ball in play on the PGA Tour since the Byron Nelson three weeks ago, where he finished second. Needless to say, the native Floridian ought to be well-rested. In two attempts at TPC Southwind, Koepka finished 19th (2014) and third (2015).
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The Dark Horses
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Chad Campbell: Not a name on most people’s radar, most likely, the four-time PGA Tour winner has been playing quality golf lately, finishing 12th at the Byron Nelson and 10th at Colonial. And from a “horses for courses” standpoint, Campbell placed eighth at last year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Boo Weekley: A quality iron player even as his driving has declined, Boo Weekley could be refreshed following a weekend off (missed cut) at The Memorial. And he finished eighth at the FESJ last year, so he’s done good work at the host venue recently.
Prediction
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Winner: Gary Woodland
Woodland fired a first-round 71 at U.S. Open Qualifying Monday and withdrew, knowing he’d have had to shoot something vastly lower in his second round to earn one of the 13 spots available in Powell, Ohio. Still the fact that he didn’t play abysmal golf in the qualifier is an indication that his game hasn’t taken a dramatic nosedive or anything.
More of an indication: Woodland followed up his 12th-place showing at the Byron Nelson with a tied-for-fourth-place finish at the Memorial last week, where he was undone by a final-round 73 after week of solid work.
From a statistical standpoint, the Topeka, Kansas, native is 19th in strokes gained: approach-the-green and 14th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He’s also 29th in greens in regulation, hitting better than 68.8 percent. Woodland is third in approaches from 150 to 175 yards.
Put all this together, and the man who played his college golf in KU Blue ought to lift the trophy in the Blues city.
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