Boise St In The BCS Title Game? Don't Laugh

It was a bad week to be ranked in the Top 25, especially the Top 10. 4 out of 10 teams ranked in the top 10 went down. Teams such as Virginia Tech, USC, Oklahoma and Ohio St now have a second life as they returned to the Top 10 with 1 loss on their record. The biggest winner was clearly Boise St as they moved up to #5 in both polls. This leads me to the question that University Presidents, Athletic Directors, Coaches and Fans from the BCS automatic qualifying conferences (and Notre Dame) had hoped would never take place: Could Boise St not only qualify for the BCS automatic bid, but play in the BCS Title Game? In my opinion the answer is yes and here are the reasons  it could happen:

• David vs Goliath BCS games are must see TV: The Non-BCS schools are 3-1 in BCS games. Boise St was the talk of the sports world when they upset Oklahoma in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. Utah sent a loud message to the college football world by dominating Alabama last year in the Sugar Bowl. If Utah can dominate an SEC school in 2008, why can’t Boise St defeat an SEC school in 2009? The NCAA basketball tournament thrives when a George Mason, Gonzaga or Davidson makes a deep run in March. The new BCS formula adopted in 2006 gave easier access to the non-BCS schools and they have not disappointed. It hasn’t translated to high TV ratings yet, but this year that should change.

• 3 of the top 4 are from the same conference: Florida, Alabama and LSU are all undefeated, but clearly only one of the three will emerge and likely make it to Pasadena for the BCS National Title Game. The voters proved in 2006 with Ohio St and Michigan their reluctance of putting two teams from the same conference in the BCS Title Game. The SEC is still the top conference in college football and unless every team has two losses, the SEC will be represented in the BCS title game for the fourth consecutive year

• Down Year for the Big 12 and Pac-10: Before we have the Boise St conversation, its clear Texas must lose 1 game. Outside of Penn St, Texas played the weakest non-conference schedule of any national title contender. It would be hard to justify a 1-loss Texas team over an undefeated Boise St team. Cal laid a huge egg against Oregon on Saturday. The Golden Bears might have been able to overcome a close loss but 42-6 is another story. The odds of another Big 12 or Pac-10 team going undefeated are slim. There are two 1-loss teams that should concern Boise St: USC and Oklahoma. Both schools played tremendous non-conference schedules and with their name recognition, they would likely get in over Boise St. With USC starting a freshman QB and Oklahoma starting 4 new offensive linemen, it’s a stretch to believe that either school will win out. If Oregon wins the Pac-10, Boise St will have a much stronger case.

• ACC and Big Ten: Both conferences continue to struggle on the big stage and in bowl games. The voters are unlikely to put a team from either conference in the BCS Title Game unless they are forced to (see Ohio St in 2007). Virginia Tech and Ohio St are in the top 10 and would have a solid argument if they finish with only 1 loss. The problem is both teams have not fared well against the SEC in recent years. Miami’s lopsided defeat to Virginia Tech ended their national title hopes. Iowa and Michigan are still undefeated, but it is unlikely they make it through the season without a loss. Until either conference gets a big out of conference win, it is unlikely they can make it to the BCS title game without going undefeated.

• Big East searching for the next West Virginia: West Virginia is the only Big East program with the credibility to easily make it into the BCS National Title Game. After dominating Georgia in the 2005 Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, the Mountaineers proved they can compete with the big boys. The problem is West Virginia is no longer the dominant program in the Big East. Cincinnati has an excellent shot of going undefeated, but lacks the opportunity to get a “signature win” on its 2009 schedule. Losing to Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last year doesn’t help matters. South Florida could have an argument if they went undefeated. They have a win over Florida St and still have Cincinnati and Miami on their schedule. Normally South Florida forgets the season extends into November

The chances of Boise St getting to Pasadena are unlikely, but at least there is hope. There are still old-timers who are angry that BYU won the National Title in 1984 by defeating a 6-5 Michigan team in the Holiday Bowl. This isn’t 1984 and this time Boise St would have to beat the best the SEC has to offer. If Texas loses and Boise St is in position, the coaches voting in the poll need to remember their roots. Almost every coach in a big time program has experience as a head coach or assistant at a non-BCS school. If we can’t have a 16 team playoff where all 11 conference champions qualify, then this would be the next best thing.

Dan Wernery is the Chief Scout for nfldraft101.com.  He can be reached at [e-mail]