Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Memorial Tournament
This week, the PGA Tour will move from one iconic venue to another, traveling just over 1,000 miles from Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, to the Augusta National-esque expanses of Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, for the Memorial Tournament.
Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, which ranks just below the WGC events in terms of strength of field and Official World Golf Ranking points, draws the top three golfers in the world to this year’s edition. Two prominent left-handers, Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson, return to Muirfield Village after skipping last year’s tournament. Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler will also be competing among a field featuring 21 of the top 30 in the OWGR.
In assessing who will perform well at the Nicklaus-designed track, we’ll lean on fantasy strategy site GolfStrat's preview newsletter. Key stats this week include approaches from 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards and greens in regulation.
Marrying these key stats with recent performances, course history and overall skill, let’s see who stacks up well this week and take a look at the biggest storylines.
Tournament Information
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Defending Champion: David Lingmerth
Where
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Length: 7,392 yards
Par: 72
What
Total Purse: $8,500,000
Winning Share: $1,530,000
FedExCup Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday, 3:30-6:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday, 12:30-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS)
Sunday, noon-2 p.m. (GC), 2:30-6 p.m. (CBS)
Biggest Storylines
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The Big Three—Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy—all arrive at Muirfield Village following big wins. Day won The Players Championship in his most recent start, McIlroy won the Irish Open and Spieth won last week’s Dean & Deluca Invitational. Thus, the stage is set for a clash of three in-form titans.
Also of note, the Memorial continues to get better, with Nationwide Insurance extending its existing partnership with the event through 2021 and boosting prize money by more than $2 million for this year’s competition. As a result, the field at the Columbus-area event ought to stay strong for years to come.
The PGA Tour's official website’s fantasy guru, Rob Bolton, pointed out an interesting tidbit:
"Only the trio of host courses of the CareerBuilder Challenge in both 2014 and 2015 yielded a greater percentage of birdies or better when hitting greens in regulation. At 34.84 percent, Muirfield Village ranked fourth-highest. The rub is that it was 18th-hardest to total scoring opportunities last year at 63.49 percent (or 11.4 GIR per round), and that was a five-year high. Overall, the field averaged 71.738, which is an eight-year low.
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1973 U.S. Open champion and 25-time PGA Tour winner Johnny Miller is the Memorial honoree this year.
On the weather front, there’s a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Sunday, per Weather.com.
The Favorites
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Jason Day: Jason Day arrives at Muirfield Village in his adoptive home state of Ohio after winning The Players Championship. He finished fifth at the Zurich Classic in his start prior to that. Day has never played well at the venue, with his best finish being 27th in 2009.
Jordan Spieth: A winner at last week's Dean & Deluca Invitational, Jordan Spieth finished third at Muirfield Village last year.
Rory McIlroy: After finishing 12th at the Players, Rory McIlroy won the Irish Open on the European Tour in his most recent start. The Ulsterman finished 15th at Muirfield Village in 2014 and fifth in 2011.
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The Dark Horses
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Chris Kirk: Chris Kirk finished 15th at Colonial in his most recent outing. He placed fourth at Muirfield Village in 2014, so he's shown aptitude at the Jack Nicklaus-designed track.
Jason Dufner: With a sneaky top-10 finish at Colonial under his belt, Jason Dufner arrives at a venue where he's recorded top-25 finishes in each of his last two starts. He's also an Ohio native if you're looking for a homer not named Jason Day this week.
Prediction
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Winner: Hideki Matsuyama
If you're looking outside the Big Three this week, Hideki Matsuyama is the man to shove your virtual (or actual) cash behind.
Matsuyama won the Memorial in 2014 and finished fifth last year. So, needless to say, he's had success playing golf at Jack's place.
His form has been excellent as well, with a seventh-place finish at he Players his last time out. He finished 11th at the Wells Fargo Championship prior to that and seventh at the Masters three starts ago.
Statistically, Matsuyama is seventh on tour in strokes gained off the tee and third in strokes gained approaching the green He's ninth in total strokes gained. The Japanese national is third in approaches from 125-150 yards and seventh in approaches from 175-200 yards.
Recent form, course history and key stats show Matsuyama ought to be the man this week.
Stats via PGATour.com
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