2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down NBA Future of Virginia's Malcolm Brogdon
Malcolm Brogdon is not the product of a system; that's important to make clear.
Because Virginia head coach Tony Bennett is such a brilliant tactician, with a pack-line defense and clock-draining offense that exhausts defenses to the point of allowing an open shot, it's easy to assume the system is greater than the parts.
| Age | 23 (Born Dec. 11, 1992) |
| Team | Virginia |
| Height | 6'5" |
| Weight | 215 |
But if NBA scouts had any doubts about Brogdon, those were erased last summer at the Nike Skills Academy. The camp, which NBA scouts were allowed to attend, included a who's who of the top players in college basketball this past season: Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, Michigan State's Denzel Valentine, LSU's Ben Simmons, Providence's Kris Dunn, Iowa State's Georges Niang, Utah's Jakob Poeltl, plus Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, to name a few.
Brogdon outplayed them all.
He was a beast on the defensive end, matching up with likely No. 1 pick Simmons in one sequence, making the do-everything forward fumble the ball and look uncomfortable. He made shots, showed off a better than expected handle and made winning plays.
The UVA product followed that performance with an All-American senior season, becoming a more well-rounded scorer and arguably the best perimeter defender in college hoops. He also spent this past year earning his master's degree, and scouts rave about his character.
For a player who most project to be a second-round pick, there's a lot to like.
Relevant Stats
| 2015-16 | 34.1 | 18.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 45.7 | 39.1 | 89.7 | 120.0 |
| 2014-15 | 32.5 | 14.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 42.2 | 34.4 | 87.9 | 110.4 |
| 2013-14 | 31.4 | 12.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 41.3 | 37.0 | 87.5 | 114.1 |
| 2011-12 | 22.4 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 39.6 | 32.4 | 80.0 | 92.9 |
Brogdon bumped up his scoring average and helped his NBA stock by improving his jumper as a senior. His percentages went up, and he made 2.0 three-pointers per game as a senior compared to 1.3 per game his junior season. He also seemed to benefit from a redshirt season during his second year in school, which he took because of a broken bone in his foot.
There aren't any individual numbers that illustrate his value as a defender, so it's better to look at Virginia's team success on that end.
The Wahoos finished sixth, fifth, first and fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, respectively, during Brogdon's four years of eligibility, per KenPom.com. The average finish in adjusted defensive efficiency during the other three years Bennett has coached at UVA: 52nd.
Strengths
Brogdon is a defensive stopper with an incredibly high basketball IQ on that end of the floor. He understands positioning and how to move his feet, utilizing his length and upper-body strength to his advantage. It also doesn't hurt that he has a 6'10 ½" wingspan, according to draft combine measurements at NBA.com.
Finding players who can guard multiple positions is all the rage in the NBA these days, and Brogdon guarded spots 1-4 at Virginia. He was well-schooled by Bennett, while his defensive instincts and awareness off the ball are on another level from his peers.
On the offensive end, Virginia brought Brogdon off a lot of screens, and he's advanced in his feel for moving without the ball. He consistently knocked down spot-up and catch-and-shoot jumpers on the move. He is also able to score off the dribble and is smooth working off a ball screen. He doesn't have blow-by speed, but he does a good job of using his strength to get where he wants on the floor.
Brogdon projects as a shooting guard in the NBA, but his handle and passing are strong enough that he could play some point guard in spot duty.
Weaknesses
Brogdon's athleticism and the range on his jumper are concerning. He's more comfortable as a mid-range shooter, and it took some time for him to become a big threat from the college three-point line. He was a good college shooter, but doesn't have the smoothest release.
Stretching his shot out to the NBA three-point line could be an adjustment, and he made only 13 of 25 spot-up threes in a shooting drill at the combine. Out of 37 players who participated in the drill, he finished tied for 23rd.
Brogdon is not a terrible athlete, but he's closer to average than most guard prospects. He's not a guy who can blow past a defender off the dribble, and he's not a great leaper at the rim. To be an effective piece on the offensive end, it's going to be important that he works on his range to be able to knock down NBA threes.
There should be less concern about Brogdon's athletic shortcomings on the defensive end. He was too dominant a defender at the college level to question him there; plus, he tested well at the combine in the lane-agility drill and the shuttle run (a combine-best 2.64 seconds), suggesting his greatest athletic strengths are his lateral quickness and agility.
NBA Player Comparison
Brogdon's defensive possibilities bring to mind the career of Memphis Grizzlies guard Tony Allen, who also has a long wingspan (6'9", according to DraftExpress) and has made his living off defense. Brogdon is a better shooter while Allen got more steals in college, but their senior-season numbers were similar:
| Malcolm Brogdon, 2015-16 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 45.7 | 39.1 |
| Tony Allen, 2003-04 at OK State | 16.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 50.4 | 29.7 |
Best-Case Scenario
The potential upside on Brogdon is measured because he's already 23 years old, and what you get now isn't going to be much different from the player he'll be a couple of years into his career.
That's not necessarily a negative; Brogdon is a guy who is ready mentally and physically to play right away. He is likely to be a career bench player, but in the right situation, he could eventually be a starting shooting guard, playing a similar role as Allen.
To get there, he'll have to be a dominant defender.
Worst-Case Scenario
The fear with Brogdon is that his athleticism will hold him back and he's not quick enough to be an elite NBA defender. You have to have talent to survive in the league, but from a mental and maturity standpoint, Brogdon is as good as it gets.
Prediction
Brogdon is expected to go in the second round, but he could sneak into the first.
Why not take a guy who is going to be an A-plus locker room presence and ready to play right away?
He's never going to be a star, but Brogdon will find a role in the NBA and have a long career. Even if he has a hard time cracking a rotation, he'll be the type of guy who teams would love to have on the end of their bench.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @CJMooreBR.
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