
Power Ranking Every NFL Division Before Mandatory Minicamps
We are still roughly three months from the start of the regular season, and NFL power rankings are starting to sprout like weeds.
Here’s a look at how the eight divisions in the NFL rate from weakest to strongest. The focus here is from top to bottom, and we are looking ahead more than we are looking back, although last season’s results play a factor in the decision-making.
There are no first-place predictions here, but take a look at how each group stacks up from bow to stern.
8. NFC East
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 26-38 (.406)
2015 Champion: Washington Redskins (9-7)
It took a season-ending four-game winning streak from the Washington Redskins to overcome a 5-7 start and capture the NFC East. Dating back to 1970, it marked just the second time (save for the nine-game strike campaign of 1982) that no team in this division won at least 10 games.
The ‘Skins will be a better football team this season thanks to upgrades on defense. Of course, that is the theme for the entire division. In 2015, Dallas (17th), Washington (28th), Philadelphia (30th) and the New York Giants (32nd) were all in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game.
The Eagles now employ heralded defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, while the Giants broke the bank for players such as Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins. The Cowboys have done little to cure what ails them, banking on rookie Ezekiel Elliott and their offensive line to keep their defense off the field.
Washington may be distancing itself a bit from the pack as it looks to become the first NFC East repeat champion since the Eagles turned the trick in 2003 and 2004. But this is a quartet of teams that won't strike a lot of fear into opponents, especially outside the division.
7. AFC South
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 25-39 (.391)
2015 Champion: Houston Texans (9-7)
There’s been a lot of talk about the AFC South being the most improved division in the league this fall.
But that still doesn’t make it one of the best foursomes considering how far this group had to go.
Given offensive additions such as quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Lamar Miller and rookie wideouts Will Fuller and Braxton Miller, the Houston Texans have the look of a formidable team on both sides of the ball and one that could challenge for a conference title.
While the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans added significant personnel this offseason, let’s not forget the degree of the climb. Over the past two seasons combined, these two franchises own a dismal 13-51 record.
In 2015, quarterback Blake Bortles’ 35 touchdown passes were tied for the second-most in the league. Wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns combined for 144 catches and 24 scores. Now head coach Gus Bradley is hoping free-agent additions such as defensive end Malik Jackson, safety Tashaun Gipson and cornerback Prince Amukamara pay immediate dividends. Rookies Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack will have a say on defense as well.
Running backs DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry will be the cure that ails a horrid Tennessee running game. That’s good news for second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota. He showed positive signs as a rookie but also took his lumps.
For the Indianapolis Colts, a healthy Andrew Luck behind center helps. But the team hasn’t done much to improve a defense that’s been a liability for far too long.
It will be an exciting year for the AFC South. But as a group, it’s still too early to elevate it past most of the other divisions.
6. AFC East
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 36-28 (.563)
2015 Champion: New England Patriots (12-4)
The reigning dynasty known as the New England Patriots has done its own version of circling the wagons this offseason. A total of seven straight AFC East titles, 15 consecutive winning seasons and 10 or more wins every year since 2003 makes New England the pre-eminent franchise in the league.
This offseason, Bill Belichick and Co. were busy adding veterans such as Martellus Bennett, Chris Long and Chris Hogan to an already talented roster.
However, the thought of not having quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season isn’t a pleasant one. Since becoming the starting signal-caller in Week 3 of 2001, he’s never missed a start due to anything but injury.
There’s also a bit of quarterback uncertainty when it comes to the New York Jets. Gary Myers of the New York Daily News has the latest on the back and forth between the team and Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s hard to fathom that the player who set a franchise record for touchdown passes (31) in 2015 won’t be back.
The Buffalo Bills added some quality players via the draft but would feel better if rookie defensive end Shaq Lawson is ready for the start of the season, according to Des Bieler of the Washington Post. The Miami Dolphins have once again had a revolving door when it comes to personnel, which is one of many reasons why the team hasn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2008.
If the Jets can get their house in order, they could threaten New England’s run in the AFC East. As for the division, there are still far too many question marks to rank high on this list.
5. NFC West
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 35-29 (.547)
2015 Champion: Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
It wasn’t long ago that the NFC West was busy sending a team to the Super Bowl three straight years. But this has become a division of two halves, with the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks distancing themselves from the Rams and Niners.
The intrigue team here is Los Angeles, which was talented enough in 2015 to sweep the Seahawks and beat the Cards in the desert. General manager Les Snead gave up plenty to select quarterback Jared Goff with the first overall pick in April’s draft. But a talented defense lost its share of veteran leadership (James Laurinaitis, Chris Long, Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod), and even a big year from running back Todd Gurley doesn’t elevate this club a lot.
The 49ers appear to be in rebuilding mode and are coming off a 5-11 season in which they scored the least points in the league. New head coach Chip Kelly looks to make amends for a rough season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
That leaves the Cardinals and Seahawks, who are both ranked in the NFL’s top five in both total offense and defense this past season. The latter will have some new looks in the backfield; however, quarterback Russell Wilson was the top-rated passer in the league this past season.
The Cards come off a 13-win campaign, the most in the history of the franchise. One of their biggest question marks a year ago was an erratic pass rush. General manager Steve Keim appears to have solved that issue with the addition of defensive end Chandler Jones and the drafting of defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche.
It won’t be a shock to see either the Cardinals or Seahawks in Super Bowl LI in Houston. But from top to bottom, this division is a shell of its once-imposing self.
4. AFC North
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 30-34 (.469)
2015 Champion: Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
This division has sent at least two teams to the playoffs in seven of the past eight seasons. In both 2011 and 2014, the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers all reached the postseason.
But the Ravens come off the first losing campaign of John Harbaugh’s head coaching career. And Cleveland still hasn’t posted a winning season since 2007 and was tied for the worst record (3-13) in football in 2015.
The Browns are also looking for some reliability at quarterback, having gone through 24 different starting signal-callers since 1999. One-time Washington Redskins standout Robert Griffin III is vying for the job, and while nothing has been settled, there have been some encouraging signs.
“He’s made tremendous strides,” said new head coach Hue Jackson to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. “He's getting better and growing each and every day. I’m very proud of the work he's put in. It hasn't been perfect all the time, but it’s been really good, and I see glimpses of it being extremely good and that’s what we’re chasing and that's at every position.”
While the Browns pursue consistency, the other three clubs are all postseason contenders. Each is far from perfect, but via the draft or a sprinkling of free agency, the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens are better football teams. Each organization knows what it takes to win. While Cincinnati still hasn’t won a playoff game since 1990, it has put itself in a position to do so each of the past seasons.
The rebuilding Browns drag this group down a bit. But a bounce-back season in Baltimore and the steadiness of the Steelers and Bengals make this one of the better divisions…again.
3. NFC South
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 36-28 (.563)
2015 Champion: Carolina Panthers (15-1)
Some may wonder why the NFC South is ranked a bit higher. After all, the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers lost only one game during the regular season in 2015. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made big strides on defense and could be a playoff team for the first time since 2007.
Unfortunately, the remainder of the division still has some doubters. Have the Atlanta Falcons done enough to remedy the worst pass rush in the league? Will Mohamed Sanu fill the void left by the release of wide receiver Roddy White? Quarterback Matt Ryan comes off an uneven season, as his club lost eight of its final 11 games following a 5-0 start.
The New Orleans Saints are hoping they’re a better team on defense. They couldn’t be much worse. The club finished 31st in the NFL in total yards allowed, gave up the most points in the league and surrendered an NFL-record 45 touchdown passes.
You have to crawl before you can walk.
Speaking of an improved defense, the Bucs added cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Josh Robinson in free agency and Vernon Hargreaves in the draft. The pass rush is aided by the addition of defensive end Robert Ayers. Quarterback Jameis Winston had a strong rookie year and finished impressively.
As for the Panthers, a healthy Kelvin Benjamin makes Cam Newton a more dangerous quarterback. The loss of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman is a significant blow; however, general manager Dave Gettleman added three cornerbacks in the draft, so the drop-off should be minimal.
Carolina and Tampa will be the stars of this group, with the Falcons and Saints flirting with .500 seasons. This won’t be the best division in football, but its balance is noteworthy.
2. AFC West
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 34-30 (.531)
2015 Champion: Denver Broncos (12-4)
The defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos have absorbed their share of losses this offseason. But the mainframe of the league’s best defense remains mostly intact.
Denver started two different quarterbacks during the season and also committed 31 turnovers in 16 games, yet it still walked away with a Lombardi Trophy. Be it Mark Sanchez or rookie Paxton Lynch, the offense will rely on the ground attack even more in 2016.
The surging Chiefs and much-improved Raiders will push the Broncos in the division. Keep in mind that both of these clubs won at Denver this past season.
Kansas City has bolstered its offensive line, signing right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. The addition of Rod Streater bodes well for a wide receiving corps that was much better this past season. And by all indications, we will see outside linebacker Justin Houston this season, who underwent knee surgery earlier this year, per Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star.
The Silver and Black came a long way on offense thanks to quarterback Derek Carr and wideouts Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. The defense has now added outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, free safety Reggie Nelson and cornerback Sean Smith. Rookie strong safety Karl Joseph will make an impact as well.
That leaves the San Diego Chargers as the weak link, especially after they failed to defeat any of their AFC West rivals in 2015. This is also an improved team thanks to free-agent additions such as wide receiver Travis Benjamin, defensive tackle Brandon Mebane and 2016 first-round draft choice Joey Bosa. But the bolstered Bolts aren’t enough to elevate the AFC West past the best division in the league this fall.
1. NFC North
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2015 Combined W-L Record: 34-30 (.531)
2015 Champion: Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
A year ago, the Green Bay Packers failed to win the NFC North for the first time since 2010. The Minnesota Vikings were champions, claiming their first division title since 2009. And head coach Mike Zimmer has done a lot with the Purple Gang in a relatively short time.
That didn’t prevent the Packers from reaching the playoffs for the seventh straight year—tied for the longest active streak in the league.
The Pack also lost at home to all three of their divisional foes. In fact, the Detroit Lions won at Lambeau Field for the first time since 1991.
Closing the gap when it comes to the Packers, and in the case of the Vikings surpassing the club, bodes well for the entire division. Minnesota didn’t make numerous offseason changes in 2016, as was the case with the Lions and Chicago Bears. But the Vikings didn’t have to.
There’s also a lot to be said for momentum from a year ago. The Bears were 6-7 after a miserable 0-3 start last season and lost six of those games by seven points or less. The Lions won six of their final eight contests after opening 1-7.
Chicago has added defensive standouts such as defensive end Akiem Hicks and inside linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. Detroit lost prolific wideout Calvin Johnson to retirement but added receivers Marvin Jones and Jeremy Kerley via free agency.
The days of the Packers dominating their divisional foes may be coming to an end. And in the process, the entire NFC North is not only much more balanced but also on the rise.
Unless otherwise noted, all player and team statistics come from Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com. All 2016 free-agent and salary-cap information, contract terms and 2016 transactions are courtesy of Spotrac.
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