Preakness 2016: Entries, Contenders, Odds and Lineup Analysis
Nyquist already overcame a loaded 20-horse field at the Kentucky Derby. If he can find a way to outrace a lighter 11-horse field on Saturday at the 141st Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, he will be a single victory away from the Triple Crown.
Horse racing fans waited 37 years before American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015 (Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978), but Nyquist appears primed to follow in those footsteps. The undefeated horse won’t even have to worry about formidable Kentucky Derby foes Mohaymen and Gun Runner and is the heavy favorite to win again.
With that in mind, here is a look at every contender, as well as their odds and gate numbers entering Saturday’s Preakness. The odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET.
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| 1 | Cherry Wine | Dale Romans | Corey Lanerie | William Pacella, Frank L. Jones Jr., Frank Shoop | 25-1 |
| 2 | Uncle Lino | Gary Sherlock | Fernando Perez | Tom Mansor, Purple Shamrock Racing, Gary Sherlock | 33-1 |
| 3 | Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | J. Paul Reddam | 4-7 |
| 4 | Awesome Speed | Alan Goldberg | Jevian Toledo | Colts Neck Stables | 33-1 |
| 5 | Exaggerator | Keith Desormeaux | Kent Desormeaux | Big Chief Racing | 15-4 |
| 6 | Lani | Mikio Matsunaga | Yutaka Take | Koji Maeda | 40-1 |
| 7 | Collected | Bob Baffert | Javier Castellano | Speedway Stable | 16-1 |
| 8 | Laoban | Eric Guillot | Florent Geroux | McCormick Racing, Southern Equine Stable | 40-1 |
| 9 | Abiding Star | Ned Allar | J.D. Acosta | Stonehedge LLC | 40-1 |
| 10 | Fellowship | Mark Casse | Jose Lezcano | Jacks or Better Farm | 33-1 |
| 11 | Stradivari | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | John Gunther, Michael Tabor, Derek Smith, Susan Magnier | 8-1 |
Lineup Analysis
Nyquist
All eyes will be on Nyquist this Saturday, and it isn’t the first time for the team of jockey Mario Gutierrez, trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam. The threesome won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I’ll Have Another and proceeded to earn the victory at the Preakness the next time out.
This pressure-packed stage is nothing new for them.
Nyquist is 8-0 and won the Kentucky Derby, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby because of his tactical speed and overall versatility. He can jump out to a quick start or settle off the pace and charge to the victory, much like he did at Churchill Downs. He is the total package and will prove so once again Saturday.
Verdict: Contender and Eventual Winner
Exaggerator
If there is one challenger in this field for Nyquist, it is Exaggerator.
He was the runner-up at the Kentucky Derby and may have overtaken the victor if given more track to work with, and has a win at the Santa Anita Derby on his resume. His pedigree is also noteworthy as the son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.
O’Neill recognized how much of a threat Exaggerator is at the Preakness, per the Associated Press (via USA Today):
"What they have done with Exaggerator has been brilliant. He won the Santa Anita Derby. He won the Delta Downs Jackpot. He won the Saratoga Special. He's run second a few times but he's also won some big races, and he ran a winning race in the Kentucky Derby. He just had a lot to do; you know, we kind of got a head start on him.
"
Exaggerator may be brilliant, but he is also 0-4 in races against Nyquist. He simply can’t get over the hump and will fail to do so once again Saturday.
Verdict: Contender
Stradivari
Stradivari hasn’t beaten the level of competition he will see at the Preakness, but he did win each of his last two races at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland by more than 11 lengths. Mike Joyce of TVG thinks the recent performances outweigh the competition concerns with Stradivari:
Stradivari should also be fresher than Nyquist and Exaggerator because he didn’t run at the Kentucky Derby.
However, he will start from the far outside at the No. 11 gate and won’t have enough speed to avoid being pushed too far wide on the turns.
Verdict: Top-Three Contender
Collected
The best thing going for Collected may be the fact Bob Baffert is his trainer. Baffert has 12 victories in his career at Triple Crown events and earned the coveted prize last year with American Pharoah.
Much like Stradivari, Collected’s triumphs have not come against elite competition, but he is riding a two-race winning streak with victories at the Sunland Park Festival of Racing and the Lexington Stakes.
The momentum and Baffert combination will be enough to contend.
Verdict: Contender
Uncle Lino
Uncle Lino is coming off a win at the California Chrome Stakes where he jumped to the lead and carried it to the finish. He has also never finished worse than fourth place in his career.
The problem for Uncle Lino is his failure to overtake the best horses. He lost to Mor Spirit at the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in February and then finished behind Exaggerator and Mor Spirit again at the Santa Anita Derby.
Verdict: Pretender
Abiding Star
Abiding Star is a dark-horse contender simply because it is dangerous to ignore the sheer amount of momentum on his side, even if his five straight wins didn’t come against an elevated level of competition.
Abiding Star overcame six straight losses as a two-year-old and is now a force to be reckoned with after five wins in a row since turning three. Jockey J.D. Acosta has also reached the 200-win plateau eight different times in his career and will look to earn a stunning victory on Saturday.
Verdict: Dark-Horse Contender
Lani
Lani finished a distant ninth at the Kentucky Derby thanks to a slow start out of the gates. Lani did win at the Meydan Racecourse before the Derby, but he was a nonthreat to Nyquist and Exaggerator at Churchill Downs.
There is no reason to think that will change Saturday at the Preakness.
Verdict: Pretender
Awesome Speed
Awesome Speed earned his way into the Preakness by capturing the title at the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 9. The winner clinched a spot in the field at Pimlico, and Awesome Speed is a potential threat with four victories in his previous five races.
He has demonstrated quick starts out of the gate and is starting right next to Nyquist on Saturday. If Awesome Speed uses that speed to jockey Nyquist for ideal position before the stretch run, the Triple Crown dreams could come to an end.
Look for Gutierrez to understand that coming in and ride Nyquist a bit harder at the start than he did at Churchill Downs. If he does that, Awesome Speed doesn’t have the overall ability to keep up with him throughout the entire race.
Verdict: Fringe Contender
Cherry Wine
Cherry Wine has never won outside of the maiden and allowance ranks, and it takes a leap of faith to assume that first stakes breakthrough will happen at the Preakness against Nyquist and Exaggerator.
What’s more, Cherry Wine drew the dreaded No. 1 gate Wednesday and runs the risk of being trapped against the inside rail if he doesn’t jump out to an early lead or at least overtake the other inside horses. Considering Nyquist is in Gate 3, Cherry Wine doesn’t stand much chance of establishing inside position against the two or three horses on his immediate side.
Verdict: Pretender
Laoban
Laoban was an alternate at the Kentucky Derby and has flashed the ability to front-run after quick starts. However, he has never won in five previous races and often fades near the stretch run.
Laoban is not going to start racking up victories with Nyquist and Exaggerator in the field Saturday.
Verdict: Pretender
Fellowship
Fellowship hasn’t won in seven attempts since a victory at Gulfstream Park in October of 2015 and has finished outside the top two in his last five starts.
To Fellowship’s credit, he placed a respectable third against Mohaymen at the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth and Nyquist in the Florida Derby. Still, he didn’t beat Nyquist in his home state of Florida, and he isn’t going to do it at Pimlico.
Verdict: Pretender
*Victories and horse information courtesy of Preakness.com.
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