2016 NBA Draft Lottery: Full Odds and Teams with Most at Stake
The fates of more than a dozen NBA teams will be decided Tuesday night at the NBA draft lottery.
The event will take place at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and should be one of the most entertaining lotteries in recent years thanks to a number of trades involving draft picks that have yet to be sorted out.
Courtesy of CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie, here's a look at the lottery chances for the teams involved, followed by our analysis of the teams with the most to win or lose.
| Philadelphia 76ers | 25.0% | 64.3% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 19.9% | 55.8% |
| Boston Celtics (via BKN) | 15.6% | 46.9% |
| Phoenix Suns | 11.9% | 37.8% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 8.8% | 29.1% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 6.3% | 21.5% |
| Denver Nuggets (via NYK) | 4.3% | 15.0% |
| Sacramento Kings | 1.9% | 6.8% |
| Toronto Raptors (via DEN) | 1.9% | 6.8% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 1.8% | 6.5% |
| Orlando Magic | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| Utah Jazz | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| Phoenix Suns (via WAS) | 0.6% | 2.2% |
| Chicago Bulls | 0.5% | 1.8% |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers' tanking strategy continued to pay off in 2015-16, as they again finished with the best chance to land the No. 1 pick.
But the 76ers have a lot more at stake in this lottery than their own pingpong balls.
Philadelphia owns the rights to the Lakers' first-round pick if it falls outside the top three. That gives the 76ers a 44.2 percent chance of owning two lottery picks this year.
Based on a previous trade with the Sacramento Kings, the 76ers also have some insurance in case they fall further down in the lottery than they expect. If the Kings' selection is higher than the 76ers', Philadelphia has the option to swap first-round selections with them.
Sacramento's chances are slim, but that option does give the 76ers an extra 1.9 percent chance at obtaining the top pick.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are hoping their pick lands in the top three to avoid handing it over to Philadelphia. But Los Angeles is likely also hoping it stays in the top two, giving it a shot at LSU's Ben Simmons or Duke's Brandon Ingram.
Having already added point guard D'Angelo Russell in last year's draft, the Lakers are now in the market for a wing player who can score. Both Simmons and Ingram would fit that description.
There are some quality options outside of Ingram and Simmons, such as Croatia's Dragan Bender. But landing Simmons or Ingram would help the team generate more interest from the fanbase as it enters the post-Kobe Bryant era.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have the most complex lottery situation, because they could lose their pick to multiple teams depending on where it lands.
SB Nation's Tom Ziller wrote an excellent breakdown on how the Kings' front office managed to land in this predicament. The gist of the situation is this: The Kings need to land inside the top 10 but lower than the 76ers to keep their pick.
If the Kings' pick lands outside the top 10, it goes to the Chicago Bulls to complete a trade from 2011, when the Kings originally sent the pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for JJ Hickson.
But if the Kings' pick ends up higher than the 76ers' selection, Philadelphia gets to swap first-round selections with them.
The critical portion of this scenario is the top-10 protection. If the Kings land inside the top 10 and prevent their pick from going to Chicago, that trade will automatically be completed with their 2017 second-round pick.
So all of Sacramento will be holding its breath when those first four envelopes open, as the outcome represents whether Sacramento can land another building block in its rebuilding process.
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