UFC 198: Jacare Souza vs. Vitor Belfort, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 198 plays host to a heavyweight title tilt on Saturday, May 14, but that isn't the only big fight on the incredible card.
Bleacher Report's No. 3-ranked middleweight Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza takes on No. 6-ranked Vitor Belfort in the co-main event.
Souza returns to action for the first time since his contentious decision loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 194 in December. Prior to that contest, Souza reeled off eight consecutive wins. A victory in Curitiba, Brazil, this weekend puts him right back in the discussion for a title shot.
Also seeking another title berth is Belfort. The former light heavyweight champion failed at beating then champion Chris Weidman at UFC 187 in May, 2015, but he returned with an emphatic KO against Dan Henderson. Another win over an elite middleweight puts his name at the top of the list for a title shot.
This is an important and interesting 185-pound bout, and now is the time to break it all down before we get to the weekend's festivities. Let's move forward with the look at Jacare vs. Belfort.
Striking
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Belfort is one of the most lethal and violent strikers in MMA history. Of his 25 career victories, 18 have come by way of TKO/KO. It is an impressive note to his career.
More impressive is that he has only gotten better with age (39 years old). A younger Belfort relied on speed and a vicious straight left hand. As he grew, he added kicks and spinning attacks that have resulted in knockouts of their own—including one over current champion Luke Rockhold.
Jacare has improved his stand-up over the years as well, but it's not on Belfort's level. Do not expect him to back down just because he doesn't hold the edge. Jacare still has quick and powerful strikes that will play an important role in setting up his takedowns.
Belfort is the better striker. Without question.
Edge: Belfort
Grappling
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When looking at grappling, you have to look at wrestling, judo, sambo, the clinch battle and ground work. It's a complicated area with a variety of different offensive and defensive techniques. That is why it is so hard to pin down who really has the edge.
Belfort has solid wrestling in his own right, but he hasn't scored an official takedown since 2007 (per FightMetric). It's difficult to ascertain where he has made strides in the near decade since.
Jacare does most of his work in the grappling realm, and he is one of the very best in the world. It makes determining who has the edge a whole lot easier.
He has a wide array of takedowns, and once you hit the mat with Jacare, it feels like only a matter of time before he locks up a submission. He has fantastic control of his opponents once he gets a grip on them. This is his world.
Edge: Jacare
Submissions
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Belfort has an oft-forgotten jiu-jitsu game, but when up against Jacare, he's at a disadvantage in this department.
Jacare is the best middleweight submission artist in the world. Period.
He is a multiple-time jiu-jitsu world champion. He will submit the elite of the elite on the mat given enough time. Belfort will do everything he can to avoid being put down on his back. There's no reason to waste time debating this one—Jacare has a significant edge on the mat.
Edge: Jacare
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X-Factors
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Belfort's X-Factor: Cardio
Belfort generally has solid cardio, but it has never been among the best in the sport. It has come back to haunt him in previous fights. Will it on Saturday? He's in a better position only having to go three rounds instead of five, but the grappling portion of the fight may drain him.
That could be trouble in the later rounds.
How Belfort paces himself against Jacare will be a key factor to watch in the opening round. He cannot put everything into the first five minutes, fail to finish and then try to keep Jacare off of him for the next 10. That will end badly for the former champion.
Jacare's X-Factor: Cutting Off the Cage
If Jacare allows Belfort to have space and come forward, then the percentage of chance he has to win this fight goes way down. He has to limit the space in which Belfort works, and that gives him more opportunities to effectively grapple with Belfort.
It's a win-win.
Belfort will blitz, but those are only fragments of time. He cannot let Belfort continually come forward on Saturday. Souza must limit Belfort's chances to uncork ferocious combinatoins.
Prediction
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This is one of the more difficult fights to project of all the fights currently on the books from the UFC. This bout could play out in a variety of ways.
What's the most likely scenario?
Jacare is a tactical fighter who understands the speed and power of Belfort. He will be cautious early on, and that will allow him to avoid significant damage in the first. He will also find his spots to clinch with Belfort and make him wear his weight.
A similar strategy will occur in the second round with a bit more pressure from Souza.
Early in the third and final round, Jacare will get a takedown. Having nearly a full round to work, he will patiently work on Belfort until a mistake is made. As soon as Belfort gives a bit of daylight, Jacare will submit him.
Prediction: Jacare Souza defeats Vitor Belfort via submission in the third round.
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