UFC 198: Fabricio Werdum vs. Stipe Miocic, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 198 will be just the second time that the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship has been defended since October 19, 2013.
Fabricio Werdum, formerly the interim champion, unified the belts by defeating Cain Velasquez last June, but the belt has been on the shelf ever since. This Saturday, May 14, a new challenger arrives on the scene.
Stipe Miocic, the No. 3-ranked heavyweight, per Steven Rondina of Bleacher Report, gets his shot at gold.
Miocic earned his title shot with back-to-back knockout performances over Mark Hunt and Andrei Arlovski. The Ohioan will travel to Curitiba, Brazil, this weekend to try to bring a championship back to Cleveland before LeBron James can.
Striker vs. Grappler is the matchup, but what does the complete breakdown look like? That is what we are here to do as UFC 198 is just around the corner. Let's get primed for Werdum vs. Miocic.
Striking
1 of 5
This was not an easy category to break down. On the surface, and by Werdum's lofty grappling record, it would appear that this category is all Miocic. However, that position would ignore Werdum's incredible surge on the feet.
Miocic is primarily a boxer, but Werdum utilizes the entire arsenal. He can execute vicious knees, crisp high kicks and even some flashy roundhouses as well. No one should be surprised if the Brazilian is the one who gets the better of the stand-up exchanges.
I am still going to side with Miocic on one basic factor—speed.
Miocic's quick hands are devastating. They are especially powerful when his opponent's back is against the fence. Miocic puts together a string of combinations that break his opponents. He will attack the body and the head.
I love Werdum's versatility, but Miocic will be first in this fight. Werdum will have to rely on his movement and defense to escape with the title.
Edge: Miocic
Grappling
2 of 5
If this category were simply about offensive wrestling, then it would go to Miocic. Werdum has been taken down by lesser grapplers, such as Mark Hunt, mostly because he's not worried about fighting off his back against them.
He'll have to be worried against Miocic.
Werdum will hold the edge in overall grappling because of his work in the clinch.
Werdum should be able to control position against the cage when they come together, and on the ground, his jiu-jitsu will stifle most of what Miocic has to offer. Even if Miocic can score a takedown, Werdum's defense from his back will make the American's offense obsolete.
It's close, but it's a slight edge to the champion on the clinch and defense.
Edge: Werdum
Submissions
3 of 5
This is the only category with a clear, decisive advantage going to either man. Werdum is the better submission stylist.
He is a world champion in this field, and he has translated that into the cage. Ask Cain Velasquez. Or Alistair Overeem. Or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Or Fedor Emelianenko. All victims to Werdum's jiu-jitsu, and all victims to different submissions.
Werdum's abilities may make Miocic hesitant to even threaten with a takedown, and that makes him one dimensional in the cage. Danger! Danger!
Edge: Werdum
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Miocic's X-Factor: Wrestling
Miocic needs to keep this fight standing. So, why do I say wrestling is his X-Factor? Because he needs to show it early so that Werdum thinks about it.
Being a one-dimensional fighter at the elite levels of MMA rarely works. Even Werdum, a world class jiu-jitsu ace, had to develop striking to achieve a championship. Even if the game plan is to only use one facet of the sport, a fighter needs to threaten with other areas to open opportunities to exploits.
If Miocic can get Werdum to react, then his chances at becoming a champion go way up.
Werdum's X-Factor: Kicks
Werdum is a big heavyweight standing at 6'4", but Miocic equals him. And Miocic will have a three-inch reach advantage over Werdum.
The kicking game will help to negate that reach advantage and keep Miocic on the outside. It will also play a role in taking away Miocic's punching power over the course of five rounds. If Werdum can eat Miocic's punches, then he can wade inside of the reach without fear of being knocked out.
Going back to Miocic's X-Factor, if Miocic shows no intent to take Werdum down, then his lead leg will be open all fight. Watch for Werdum to take advantage.
Prediction
5 of 5
I have gone back-and-forth on this prediction since the fight was announced, but I've settled in on the champion retaining his gold.
Miocic has fast hands that will pose a problem early, but Werdum has a very good chin. I need not remind anyone that he survived some bombs from Mark Hunt. That should give him some confidence against Miocic.
Werdum will have success on the feet. He's not out of his realm standing. He'll put in work, and as the fight draws on, he will eventually get Miocic to the canvas. Once there, the fight's complexion changes radically.
Werdum is on a different level.
Miocic will prove he is a legitimate threat to win the belt, but it won't be his destiny at UFC 198. Werdum finishes the bout in the championship rounds before looking forward to a third fight with Alistair Overeem late this year.
Prediction: Fabricio Werdum defeats Stipe Miocic via submission in the fourth round.
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