NBA Draft Lottery 2016: Odds to Win No. 1 Pick and Teams That Need It the Most
With a pair of potential franchise players leading a loaded 2016 NBA draft class, the draft lottery could have enormous implications around the league going forward.
Ben Simmons of LSU is a versatile offensive weapon with the size of a power forward at 6'10" and the skill set of a point guard. Brandon Ingram also has outstanding size and length at 6'9" and is already an elite scorer who can put up points inside and out. While there is debate about which player should be taken first, both men have tons of potential heading into their NBA careers.
This makes securing the first pick in the draft extremely important for teams hoping to turn around their fate as bottom-feeders in the league. While everyone that missed the playoffs would like to end up on top of the draft, here is a look at the teams that need it most along with a breakdown of the odds heading into the May 17 lottery.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | 25 percent |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | 19.9 percent |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) | 15.6 percent |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | 11.9 percent |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 8.8 percent |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.3 percent |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) | 4.3 percent |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | 1.9 percent |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets) | 1.9 percent |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1.9 percent |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | 0.8 percent |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 0.7 percent |
| 13 | Washington Wizards | 0.6 percent |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | 0.5 percent |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers embraced a strategy of "tanking" under general manager Sam Hinkie, although this is not something the organization can admit. In any case, the squad won just 19 games in 2013-14, followed by 18 wins in 2014-15 and just 10 wins this past season. This latest embarrassment was by far the worst record in the NBA.
Hinkie has since been replaced by Bryan Colangelo, and the hope is that the new regime will be able to improve the recent performance. Of course, the squad will need a lot more talent.
The past few years has seen the team add some quality players from Nerlens Noel to Jahlil Okafor while mystery players Joel Embiid and Dario Saric remain potential pieces for the future. However, it's clear the team is still far from competing at a high level.
A No. 1 pick would go a long way, especially considering Philadelphia hasn't selected first overall since 1996 when the organization selected Allen Iverson.
Head coach Brett Brown will represent the 76ers at the lottery and seemed excited about the possibilities, per Brian Seltzer of Sixers.com:
"This year’s NBA Draft Lottery tips off the exciting next phase for Sixers basketball. I’m proud to represent the city of Philadelphia on behalf of the loyal fans that have supported this team throughout the past three seasons. We’re looking forward to the many opportunities in front of us this summer to advance our program.
"
Philadelphia might want to target Ingram to give the team a much-needed backcourt presence and perimeter scoring option, but either top prospect would help the team going forward. Otherwise, the next few years won't be much better than the past few.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers need someone to replace Kobe Bryant, not just when it comes to helping the team on the court, but also in generating excitement for the organization. The Lakers have always had a star to get people in the seats and sell jerseys, an area where a No. 1 overall pick could help.
On the other hand, it's possible Los Angeles won't even hold on to the draft pick. Colin Cowherd of Fox Sports recently reported this rumor:
Adding an established veteran would certainly help on and off the court. With young building blocks like D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle already on the roster, Los Angeles might be in better shape than some think.
So why do the Lakers need to win the lottery? Because things could get disastrous on May 17 if the pingpong balls don't land right.
Los Angeles has a trade on the books to send the 76ers its first-round pick, although it is top-three protected, per RealGM. This means if the squad doesn't end up with one of the first three picks, it will be out of the first round altogether. Regardless of what the team plans to do with its selection, this is a dramatic turnaround.
According to Tankathon (via Jason McIntyre of the Big Lead), the Lakers have a 55.8 percent chance of ending up in the top three and keeping their pick. This is better odds than most, but still not enough to remain comfortable.
Considering Los Angeles can either end up with an elite prospect or nothing at all, the lottery will be huge for this organization.
Sacramento Kings
No one is going to feel sorry for a team like the Minnesota Timberwolves or Milwaukee Bucks if they don't win the lottery. Both squads have young talent on their rosters who could become stars, and both are on the right path toward contention.
Conversely, the Sacramento Kings have little to be excited about besides DeMarcus Cousins, an elite center who is seeing his prime wasted by a team that can't provide much help.
Rudy Gay has regressed since joining the Western Conference squad, and his average of 17.2 points per game last season was the lowest since his rookie season. Rajon Rondo hasn't done enough to justify re-signing him over the summer. Young players like Ben McLemore and Willie Cauley-Stein have played well, but both appear more likely to be role players than stars at this level.
The Kings either need another elite player to pair with Cousins in order to make the team a legitimate playoff contender, or trade the All-Star and start from scratch with a new core. In either scenario, a big-time prospect will be key to expediting the process, making a favorable draw in the lottery extremely valuable.
There will be plenty of debate about which top prospect would "fit" better in this roster, but the reality is the team could use anyone who can help the team win games. This organization hasn't reached the postseason in the last 10 years and hopes that Dave Joerger, who the team announced as its new head coach on Monday, can be the difference.
Although a coaching change might help, the real impact could come from a new star player.
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