2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down the Future of Denzel Valentine
It took three seasons and two games for Denzel Valentine to generate any real NBA draft buzz. Despite playing a key role in Michigan State's 2015 Final Four run, it was his November triple-double against Kansas that pinged the radar for the first time.
Valentine's 29-point, 12-rebound, 12-assist outing kicked off a National Player of the Year campaign that's now expected to result in interested lottery teams.
He has potentially positioned himself to follow Oklahoma's Buddy Hield as the second senior taken in June's draft.
Relevant Stats
| PPG | APG | RPG | SPG | FG% | 3PT% | ORtg | Usage |
| 19.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 1.0 | .462 | .444 | 127.2 | 28.4 |
You won't find many stat lines more appealing than Valentine's. He's the only player since 1993-94 to average at least 16 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, according to Sports-Reference.com.
He also converted over 100 three-pointers for the second straight year and shot a scorching 44.4 percent from deep.
The advanced stats back up the basic ones—Valentine registered a 60.8 percent true shooting percentage and a 29.7 player efficiency rating, while his 45.8 percent assist percentage ranked second in the country.
His rebounding numbers were also easily the best of any first-round-caliber guard.
Strengths
Valentine will likely start his career as a 2-guard, where he has adequate 6'5" size, a sturdy 220-pound frame and a lengthy 6'10" wingspan. Those measurements become a lot more advantageous if he's able to give teams minutes at the point.
Valentine has a strong handle and did most of the playmaking at Michigan State. He's a terrific passer with natural setup ability and vision on the move, whether it's off ball screens or in transition, where he racked up 89 of his 240 assists, per Hoop-Math.com.
He does a nice job surveying the floor and locating his shooters, divers, cutters and finishers. Even as a stationary ball-mover around the perimeter, Valentine can find and hit the open man with a dart from the pocket.
His other big selling point is a tested shooting stroke. He gets a beautiful arc on his shot, which he can knock down in a variety of ways.
Running off screens, stop-and-pops, catch-and-shoots, step-backs—Valentine is a versatile shot-maker with a quick release and the ability to convert contested looks.
It's a skill that should allow him to fit in anywhere and even contribute right away—especially when it's paired with high-IQ passing. As a scorer, Valentine does have a bag full of floaters and runners, though he tends to lean too heavily on it.
Weaknesses
Valentine lacks above-average athleticism and explosiveness. It suggests he could struggle getting to the hoop and finishing around it. He takes a lot of difficult, one-handed, one-legged shots around the key—a result of his difficulty getting past his man and creating separation into balanced jumpers.
Those questions about whether he'll be able to blow by NBA wings and guards get only louder when you realize he only took 3.7 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes in college. Of the 205 field goals he converted on the year, just 44 of them came at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
Valentine also projects poorly on defense, where he does a mediocre job containing dribble penetration. He's not quick to slide laterally or react, while his 1.3 steals per 40 minutes highlight inactivity.
NBA Comparisons
Evan Turner/O.J. Mayo (Blend)
Valentine reminds me of Turner in that they're both facilitating wings who can operate as pick-and-roll ball-handlers. They can each score in the mid-range with pull-ups, pull-backs, runners and floaters.
Like Mayo, Valentine can operate on or off the ball, thanks to a dangerous three-point shooting stroke. These are combo players capable of distributing or stretching the floor by spotting up.
Turner, Mayo and Valentine aren't incredibly bouncy or quick but compensate with high skill levels and versatility.
Best-Case Scenario
Despite superstar college production, Valentine doesn't project as an NBA stud. He'll turn 23 years old in November, and without youth or great athleticism, his ceiling seems to fall a few stories short of the rooftop.
However, high-end-role-player potential seems achievable. If he lands on a team with talent that can mask his flaws, it would help optimize his ball-handling, jumper and passing instincts.
In a best-case scenario, Valentine is a glue-guy starter for a winning team.
Worst-Case Scenario
If prospects were separated based on the level of assumed risk, Valentine would fall on the safe side. He has a pro's body to match an NBA-friendly blend of shooting and passing.
It's possible his ceiling and floor aren't far apart, but at the very least, Valentine should settle in as a shot-maker and ball-mover off the bench.
Prediction
Valentine doesn't offer the upside likely to motivate a top-10 reach. But his high floor could look enticing in the teens of what looks like a relatively weak 2016 draft field. One team in the Nos. 11-19 range is bound to view him as a sure thing worth grabbing, even if it means passing on a prospect with greater long-term potential.
Whether he plays most of his career as a starter or reserve may come down to which team he's with. Either way, I'd still bank on Valentine sticking from day one until Year 10 in a supporting role.
Advanced stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
