Preakness 2016: Post-Kentucky Derby Odds and Preview
Heading into the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist had many critics. Despite his undefeated record, he was getting little respect. He silenced all of the naysayers with an emphatic victory at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and now he will have a new question to answer.
Can he become one step closer to immortality and win the Preakness Stakes?
The dust has barely settled from American Pharoah's historic Triple Crown bid in 2015, and all sights are set to Pimlico Race Course as the cycle will continue again in the Preakness. Nyquist will have to face familiar rivals from the Kentucky Derby as well as fresh horses ready for a shot at the champion.
The Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday, May 21. The field has not been formally established yet, but let's take a look at how the race could shape up.
Schedule and TV Information
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Friday, May 20, 2016
3 p.m. ET: The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, NBC Sports
Saturday, May 21, 2016
2:30 p.m. ET: Preakness Prep, NBC Sports
5 p.m. ET: Preakness Pre-Race Coverage, NBC Sports
6:30 p.m. ET: Preakness Stakes, NBC
Likely Contenders and Odds for Likely Contenders
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With only two weeks between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of the Triple Crown is a test of timing and conditioning. While a horse needed to be at his best to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby, he cannot have left too much on the track in Louisville if he is going to be a factor at Pimlico.
It is difficult to find a fault with Nyquist. When comparing him to American Pharoah, the colt who ended the Triple Crown drought last year, there is one major difference—unlike American Pharoah, Nyquist is undefeated. He has never lost a race, and at this point, no other horse has seriously challenged him.
Nyquist will have some competition in the Preakness Stakes, however. Familiar rival Exaggerator, who has finished second behind him twice, could be back.
"If I have to run second to anybody I'll take that horse," Exaggerator trainer Keith Desormeaux told Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com.
The list of contenders is not yet set in stone. In two weeks, a lot can happen in horse racing, and some new challengers could emerge from the woodwork. Here is a list of horses who may show up in the Preakness Stakes, with odds I set.
- Nyquist, 9-5
- Exaggerator, 4-1
- Gun Runner, 5-1
- Mohaymen, 6-1
- Collected, 8-1
- Sharp Azteca, 10-1
- American Freedom, 12-1
- Laoban, 15-1
Pimlico Race Course Facts
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Surface: Dirt, turf
Dimensions: One-mile oval that is 70 feet wide with a 1,152-foot homestretch. The main track encompasses a seven-furlong turf course.
Nickname: Old Hilltop
Preakness Stakes Record: Secretariat's 1:53.00 in 1973
The largest margin of victory in the Preakness Stakes is 11 1/2 lengths (Smarty Jones in 2004). As coincidence may have it, that colt was also undefeated at the time. Last year, American Pharoah won the Preakness Stakes and added to the rich history of Pimlico Race Course, which is one of the oldest tracks in the country. The largest crowd in the history of the race, 131,680, was on hand for his historic 2015 victory.
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Top Storylines
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Can anyone defeat Nyquist?
Nyquist is undefeated in eight starts. He has an edge on even the legendary American Pharoah at this point if one was to compare their careers. American Pharoah lost the first start of his career, while Nyquist has been nothing but a winning machine. His trainer, Doug O'Neill, has had some great horses over the course of his career, but O'Neill told BloodHorse.com that Nyquist is the best horse he has ever been around.
Will Songbird run in the Preakness?
Forced to sit out the Kentucky Oaks with a fever, Songbird could be the most talented horse of either gender in this crop of three-year-olds. In 2009, Rachel Alexandra defeated male rivals in the Preakness Stakes, and while no one from Songbird's camp has stated that the Preakness is the target, the race could be a possibility.
Will Exaggerator get his revenge?
Competing primarily on the West Coast, Exaggerator has spent much of his career in the shadow of Nyquist. Provided the horse comes out of the Kentucky Derby well, the budding rivalry will continue. But will the late-closing Exaggerator be able to get to Nyquist in the Preakness, which at 1 3/16 miles is a shorter race than the Kentucky Derby?
Dark Horses to Watch
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Mohaymen
After an uninspiring effort behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby (Grade 1), Mohaymen became far less appealing. He responded with a competitive race in the Kentucky Derby, and while he was clearly no match for the winner, it was a credible effort. He could fly under the radar again.
American Freedom
American Freedom is short on experience but looked to have some serious talent in his career debut with an impressive victory. He made a big step up in class on the Kentucky Derby undercard in the Pat Day Mile (G3), and while he was not much of a factor (finishing sixth), he may have been compromised by a bad trip. If he gets another shot at the big leagues, he may be worth a look.
Favorites
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Nyquist
Nyquist has passed every test. He has proved that he can ship well and run on any sort of race track, and that kind of versatility is what makes him the biggest threat in the Preakness Stakes. His connections are no stranger to this scenario—in 2012, Doug O'Neill, owner Paul Reddam and jockey Mario Gutierrez teamed up to win the Kentucky Derby and then the Preakness Stakes with I'll Have Another. Unfortunately, that colt was injured before the Belmont Stakes.
At this point, there is no telling how good Nyquist could actually be. He just keeps rising to the occasion at every race and will be a deserving favorite in the Preakness.
Gun Runner
Gun Runner deserves a lot of credit for his game effort in the Kentucky Derby. He hung tough to get third after perhaps being a bit too aggressive early in the race and showed a lot of heart and professionalism. He is a lightly raced colt with a bright future, and his sharp speed could be a big threat in the Preakness.
Predictions
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Nyquist looked like he could go around again as he was galloping out after winning the Run for the Roses. The race, at least initially, seemed to take little out of the colt, and that should set him up perfectly to take the Preakness Stakes and possibly the Triple Crown after that.
Win: Nyquist
Place: Mohaymen
Show: Gun Runner
Note: Author created Preakness odds.
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