Kentucky Derby Picks 2016: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 142nd Race

In a few hours, the horse racing world will know a lot more about Nyquist than it does before the start of the Kentucky Derby.

Is Nyquist a big-time champion with a chance to follow American Pharoah and win the Triple Crown, or is he just a nice horse who won't be able to contend with 19 competitors and a 1 ¼-mile race?

Once we learn the answer late Saturday afternoon/early evening following the fastest two minutes in sports, a new script will be written. Either Nyquist will prove himself a worthy star for the sport, or a different colt will emerge as the potential three-year-old champion.

Nyquist has a lot to offer anyone who is backing him at odds of 3-1, according to Odds Shark. He has won all seven of his previous starts and has done it with a variety of styles. 

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RACE REPLAY: Nyquist Tops Mohaymen in Florida Derby https://t.co/ViMKl0DyTb via @YouTube

— scndfrnt (@scndfrnt) May 7, 2016"

Nyquist can run with the lead and can also come from behind. However, he appears to be most comfortable and will have his best chance by stalking the pace and then turning it on down the long Churchill Downs stretch.

That type of strategy has worked well for the son of Uncle Mo, and it also seems to make the most sense for the 20-horse field in the Kentucky Derby.

By staying fairly close to the lead in the race, Nyquist will avoid the traffic that come-from-behind horses have to overcome. The requirement to employing that game plan is getting off to a good start. 

Place	Horse	Gate	Odds
1	Nyquist	13	3-1
2	Exaggerator	11	15-2
3	Mo Tom	4	22-1
4	Mohaymen	14	8-1
5	Brody's Cause	19	14-1
6	Mor Spirit	17	14-1
7	Destin	9	14-1
8	Shagaf	16	28-1
9	Whitmore	10	18-1
10	Suddenbreakingnews	2	20-1
11	Creator	3	12-1
12	Gun Runner	5	9-1
13	Lani	8	28-1
14	Trojan Nation	1	66-1
15	Majesto	18	33-1
16	Danzing Candy	20	20-1
17	Oscar Nominated	7	66-1
18	My Man Sam	6	20-1
19	Outwork	15	16-1
20	Tom's Ready	12	40-1

Contending with the traffic in the crowded field is the biggest factor that Nyquist will have to overcome, according to trainer Doug O'Neill.

"Whenever you line up 20 of the best three-year-olds from around the world, I mean you really don’t necessarily have to be the best horse but you’ve got to be the luckiest horse, because a lot of these horses you’re splitting hairs on talent level," O'Neill told Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal.

Exaggerator is the 15-2 second choice in the field and is trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by the trainer's brother, Kent Desormeaux.

If Exaggerator comes home first, it would be the first time that a pair of trainer-jockey brothers would win the Kentucky Derby.

Exaggerator has won four times in nine starts, and if the rains that are forecast by the Weather Channel for Saturday night were to hit Louisville a little earlier, it would give him a clear advantage because he is an outstanding mudder.

The forecast calls for overcast skies at post time, but the rain appears likely to hold off until later.

Look for Exaggerator to mount his run from off the pace. This is a relatively new development in his running style and led to an excellent showing and a victory in the Santa Anita Derby.

While favorites have won the Kentucky Derby each of the last three years, long shots have regularly come through in the Run for the Roses. It would not be a shocker to see 16-1 shot Mo Tom come up with a huge effort and steal the race.

Mo Tom will be ridden by Corey J. Lanerie and is trained by Thomas M. Amoss. The horse has three victories to his credit and has been on the board in six of his seven career races.

Mo Tom will need some racing luck to have a chance, since his preferred style is to come from behind. Lanerie has tried to take Mo Tom up the rail in previous races, but he has run into trouble doing just that.

If he can guide the colt more skillfully this time out, he has an excellent chance to find his best gear as he runs down the stretch.

Prediction

The belief here is that Nyquist is the real thing and that O'Neill will have his charge ready for his best race at Churchill Downs.

Nyquist whipped top contender Mohaymen in the Florida Derby and is the best horse in the race. Nyquist's running style should allow him to stay out of significant trouble, and he will turn it on down the stretch to win the race.

Exaggerator is a strong and powerful three-year-old who should finish second, and we will go with upset-minded Mo Tom to use a strong stretch run to earn third place.