Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Final Vegas Odds and Projections for Top Horses
The 142nd Kentucky Derby has a lot of top contenders, but only one horse will wear the roses at the end of the day.
Everyone has their own system for picking a winner. Some focus on the success in past races, while others put a lot of faith in workouts leading up to the event. There are those who care about the jockeys and trainers and a few who just pick a number out of a hat. In reality, anything can happen in the "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports."
Are you going to bet on the favorite, or do you have a long shot that is going to shock the world? My picks are set, but you have plenty of options heading into Saturday's main event.
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| 1 | Trojan Nation | Aaron Gryder | Patrick Gallagher | 50-1 | 66-1 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | Luis Quinonez | Donnie Von Hemel | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 3 | Creator | Ricardo Santana Jr | Steven Asmussen | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | Corey Lanerie | Thomas Amoss | 20-1 | 22-1 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | Florent Geroux | Steven Asmussen | 10-1 | 9-1 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Chad Brown | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | Julien Leparoux | Michael Maker | 50-1 | 66-1 |
| 8 | Lani | Yukata Take | Mikio Matsunaga | 30-1 | 28-1 |
| 9 | Destin | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 15-1 | 14-1 |
| 10 | Whitmore | Victor Espinoza | Ron Moquett | 20-1 | 18-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | Kent Desormeaux | J. Keith Desormeaux | 8-1 | 15-2 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | Brian Hernandez Jr | Dallas Stewart | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| 13 | Nyquist | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | Junior Alvarado | Kiaran McLaughlin | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| 15 | Outwork | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| 16 | Shagaf | Joel Rosario | Chad Brown | 20-1 | 28-1 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | Gary Stevens | Bob Baffert | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| 18 | Majesto | Emisael Jaramillo | Gustavo Delgado | 30-1 | 33-1 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | Luis Saez | Dale Romans | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | Mike Smith | Clifford Sise Jr | 15-1 | 20-1 |
Predictions
Show: Gun Runner
With four wins in five chances including a recent win at the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner appears ready to take on an increase in competition at the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Steve Asmussen appeared cautiously optimistic when discussing his horse after the post draw, per KentuckyDerby.com:
"It's looks like all the pace is to the outside. Hopefully, prerace, everything goes smoothly. Hopefully, he stands up in the gates. Hopefully, he's away from there really good. But, we're very anxious right now with a very good horse going into the Derby. He's a tremendous horse. You want a good trip to show who he is.
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Although the No. 5 post has produced the most winners in the history of this event with 13, per Odds Shark, it isn't necessarily ideal with so many entries. A slow starter could get caught inside and have no path to get free.
However, Gun Runner came out of the rail in the Louisiana Derby, and jockey Florent Geroux found a way to move into the front down the stretch and pull away from the field. With the up-and-coming jockey Geroux on board once again for the Kentucky Derby, there should be plenty of confidence going forward.
The offspring of undefeated Candy Ride has displayed his speed in smaller races and will now get a chance to show what he can do on the big stage.
Place: Outwork
Experience goes a long way in horse racing, although not necessarily for the one doing the running. The same trainers and jockeys are successful every year in this sport, and it isn't an accident.
Outwork will have a lot of help with trainer Todd Pletcher, who has entered dozens of horses into this field and has two more this year (Destin is the other). He led Super Saver to the 2010 Kentucky Derby title and should be able to get both of his contenders close to the money this year.
Meanwhile, jockey John Velazquez also has experience winning this event in 2011, along with a pair of wins at the Belmont Stakes. The veteran is as consistent as they come, ranking fourth in 2016 earnings among North American jockeys.
According to Equibase, he has finished in the top six in this category every year since 2001 and is well on his way to accomplishing the feat once again.
All this and we haven't even gotten to the horse, who has three wins and a second-place finish in four career starts. Outwork hasn't done a lot on the big stage, but he has been successful when given a chance.
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports also notes the draw went in the challenger's favor:
With plenty of pure ability and a great team around him, Outwork should end up in the money.
Win: Nyquist
It's never a bold move to pick the favorite to win, but that doesn't mean it's a mistake either.
Nyquist has won all seven races in his career, including some against elite competition. Four of the wins have been in Grade 1 events and another two were Grade 2, so it's clear he hasn't just been padding his resume in weekend races.
Dan Wolken of USA Today also broke down the variety of the thoroughbred's wins:
"He’s won over four different racetracks covering the East Coast, the West Coast and Kentucky. He’s won on the lead and from off the pace. He’s overcome trouble out of the gate and been forced to go wide around turns. His owner, trainer and jockey have all won the Kentucky Derby before, so there will be no surprises or stage fright. All week, the horse has looked a picture of health and happiness.
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It will be difficult to live up to expectations after last year's Triple Crown run by American Pharoah, but there is simply no reason to doubt Nyquist as he tries to knock out the first leg on Saturday.
Jockey Mario Gutierrez and trainer Doug O'Neill had a successful run together in 2012 with I'll Have Another, and they both have another chance to make history with Nyquist.
Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.
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