Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders
The American horse racing calendar is set for one of the most anticipated races of the year, as Saturday's 2016 Kentucky Derby will see some of the top contenders in the sport start their journey in search of this year's Triple Crown.
The Run for the Roses marks the beginning of the prestigious hat-trick of accolades, and although Nyquist enters the fray as the bookmakers' favourite, many twists and turns await.
Every horse in the field has earned their place in the Churchill Downs spectacular, hoping they can follow in the footsteps of last year's Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah.
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Read on for a last-minute breakdown of the betting lines heading into Saturday's event, per Odds Shark, along with predictions of where we can expect to see the front-running contenders end the race.
| Nyquist | +300 |
| Exaggerator | +750 |
| Mohaymen | +800 |
| Gun Runner | +900 |
| Creator | +1200 |
| Destin | +1400 |
| Mor Spirit | +1400 |
| Brody's Cause | +1400 |
| Outwork | +1600 |
| Whitmore | +1800 |
| Suddenbreakingnews | +2000 |
| My Man Sam | +2000 |
| Danzing Candy | +2000 |
| Mo Tom | +2200 |
| Lani | +2800 |
| Shagaf | +2800 |
| Majesto | +3300 |
| Tom's Ready | +4000 |
| Trojan Nation | +6600 |
| Oscar Nominated | +6600 |
Victor Espinoza Runs Short of Hat-Trick
Having previously won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes on two occasions and in the same years in the past, jockey Victor Espinoza finally realised his Triple Crown dream aboard American Pharoah in 2015.
The Mexico native returns to Churchill Downs atop Whitmore this time around, an outside shot at odds of +1800, but Espinoza has spoken favourably of his ride in the buildup to his title defence:
Whitmore finished third in his most recent outing at the 2016 Arkansas Derby, where Suddenbreakingnews and Creator, both running in Saturday's race, finished second and first, respectively.
This race will also see Espinoza attempting to match the pedigree of a thoroughbred superstar like American Pharoah against an inferior ride, and Louisiana reporter Rick Bozich said he can spot the difference:
No jockey in history has won the Kentucky Derby three times in succession, and after waiting 12 years between his first and second triumphs, Espinoza is now seeking to seal the hat-trick.
The 10-furlong distance will likely be too far for Whitmore considering his two career wins have come at the sprint distance of six furlongs, but he's found some luck since he started wearing blinkers this year and stands a chance of placing with Espinoza aboard.
Nyquist Disproves Unlucky No. 13 Tag
The No. 13 starting position may carry with it omens of misfortune—only four horses have won the Kentucky Derby from this post—but even a precursor such as that may find Nyquist's quality too fierce to overcome.
Trainer Doug O'Neill found Kentucky Derby success with I'll Have Another in 2012, and ESPN Stats & Info picked out Nyquist as another front-runner who could add to his collection:
That perfect career record has earned Nyquist the favourites tag at odds as low as +300, and Mario Gutierrez—the jockey who rode I'll Have Another to glory four years ago—is also back to recapture Kentucky gold. He's developed a firm bond with Gutierrez in recent months, too, per Betting Expert.
Fox Business compared Nyquist alongside last year's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in an attempt to see if the three-year-old can hope to match up with a great that ran before him:
His perfect record reads like a veteran's, too, considering four of his wins are at Grade 1 level, showcasing the kind of talent that doesn't come around often.
American Pharoah was a horse that could pull clear of the pack regardless of how the field lined up ahead of him, and Nyquist is giving off a similar unstoppable aura in the buildup to Saturday's climax.
Predicted Winner: Nyquist
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