Kentucky Oaks 2016: Post Positions, Field and Race Preview

The 142nd running of the Kentucky Oaks commences Friday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, and it's anyone's race to win after the prohibitive favorite dropped out.

Like clear Kentucky Derby favorite Nyquist, Songbird has won all seven of her career starts and was on course for what would've been another magnificent victory. Unfortunately, the filly was under the weather with a fever in April, forcing her withdrawal from the Kentucky Oaks.

Following the release of the morning-line odds, trainer Todd Pletcher's top contender, Rachel's Valentina, was deemed the horse to beat in the Kentucky Oaks with 7-2 odds from the No. 11 post position.

Below is an overview of the complete field of 14, courtesy of the Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee (via ESPN.com) and Kentucky Derby on Twitter, along with a preview of what to expect in the Grade 1 showcase.

Post No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds
1	Terra Promessa	Ricardo Santana Jr.	Steve Asmussen	10-1
2	Weep No More	Corey J. Lanerie	George R. Arnold II	9-2
3	Lewis Bay	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Chad Brown	8-1
4	Go Maggie Go	Luis Saez	Dale Romans	12-1
5	Dream Dance	Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr.	Neil J. Howard	30-1
6	Mokat	Flavien Prat	Richard Baltas	20-1
7	Mo d'Amour	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	30-1
8	Royal Obsession	Manuel Franco	Steve Asmussen	20-1
9	Paola Queen	Emisael Jaramillo	Gustavo Delgado	30-1
10	Venus Valentine	Shaun Bridgmohan	Thomas Amoss	30-1
11	Rachel's Valentina	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	7-2
12	Cathryn Sophia	Javier Castellano	John C. Servis	9-2
13	Land Over Sea	Mario Guiterrez	Doug O'Neill	5-1
14	Taxable	Corey Nakatani	Steve Asmussen	20-1
—	Dothraki Queen (also eligible)	TBD	Kenneth G. McPeek	30-1

2016 Kentucky Oaks Preview

The above race, the Ashland Stakes, featured the top three Kentucky Oaks contenders from the morning line and goes a long way to helping project how Friday's showcase might play out.

Although Rachel's Valentina finished second in her prior two starts, there is reason to buy into her as the top favorite.

Only Songbird finished ahead of her in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile this past October. Weep No More, a 9-2 morning-line Kentucky Oaks favorite, was the only one to beat Rachel's Valentina in April's Ashland Stakes.

"It was one of those frustrating losses, but you have to be very pleased and proud of her effort," said Pletcher of the latter loss, per the Associated Press' Mike Farrell. "It was very encouraging that she's come back as a top class filly."

Both of those were Grade 1 races, and Rachel's Valentina had won her prior two career outings, including her Grade 1 debut at the Spinaway Stakes in September.

Pedigree is strongly in Rachel's Valentina's favor, which goes a long way to explaining her status as the morning-line headliner.

Per PedigreeQuery.com, her dam is 2009 Preakness Stakes winner Rachel Alexandra, and her sire is Bernardini, who was produced by A.P. Indy as part of a lineage that includes Triple Crown champions Seattle Slew and Secretariat.

Churchill Downs announcer Travis Stone weighed in on Rachel's Valentina's odds, suggesting she's quite a bargain despite having the shortest ones in the Kentucky Oaks:

As for Weep No More, she took a while to get going at Keeneland before pipping Rachel's Valentina by a nose in the aforementioned Ashland Stakes. However, the move she made over the final furlong was phenomenal and suggested her best may be yet to come.

If the early pace is too fast at the Kentucky Oaks, though, Weep No More may fall too far back to make a similar charge. Beginning so close to the rail in the No. 2 post position, alongside Terra Promessa and Lewis Bay to her outside, presents potential traffic issues too.

Cathryn Sophia may be the better bet to challenge Rachel's Valentina for the Lillies for the Fillies and silver trophy.

Starting alongside Rachel's Valentina in the 12th post will ensure she maintains pace with her and has plenty of room to operate away from the rail. She ran right with Rachel's Valentina in the Ashland Stakes and had been undefeated with four wins prior to that photo finish.

Candice Hare of Fox AM1340 broke down how the 9-2 Cathryn Sophia is a force to be reckoned with:

Land Over Sea, who's going to be right in the thick of things on the outside, is a dark horse to watch at 5-1. She stands to benefit from running with Rachel's Valentina and Cathryn Sophia—and has momentum to boot thanks to a 4 ½-length triumph at the Fair Grounds Oaks.

The post-position draw has made this year's Kentucky Oaks intriguing, with so many favorites in close proximity. 

Should the most recently mentioned trio overexert themselves before the final stretch, there would be an opening for anyone to make a big move at the end, which makes Weep No More a big-time threat.

Stats courtesy of Horse Racing Nation.