Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Updated Lines and Favorites After Post Position Draw
The 2016 Kentucky Derby has a tough act to follow after American Pharoah dominated the sports world last Triple Crown season. This year's field doesn't feature one dominant horse, but it has a trifecta of outstanding contenders who are capable of making history.
Wednesday's post position draw did help shine a light on to expect at Saturday's race at Churchill Downs.
| 1 | Trojan Nation | 50-1 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | 20-1 |
| 3 | Creator | 10-1 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | 20-1 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | 10-1 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | 20-1 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | 50-1 |
| 8 | Lani | 30-1 |
| 9 | Destin | 15-1 |
| 10 | Whitmore | 20-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | 8-1 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | 30-1 |
| 13 | Nyquist | 3-1 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | 10-1 |
| 15 | Outwork | 15-1 |
| 16 | Shagaf | 20-1 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | 12-1 |
| 18 | Majesto | 30-1 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | 12-1 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | 15-1 |
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Odds per NBC Sports Network.
The Favorite: Nyquist
Nyquist enters the Kentucky Derby with a great resume. He's won all seven career races he's entered, including the prestigious Florida Derby in April, and has a great team led by trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam.
O'Neill and Reddam were on the verge of breaking the Triple Crown drought in 2012 with I’ll Have Another, but an injury to the horse's tendon forced them to withdraw the horse from the Belmont Stakes 24 hours before the race.
Four years later, O'Neill and Reddam feel good about their chances of winning another Kentucky Derby. As Guy Martin wrote for Forbes, Nyquist just seems to find ways to win:
"Nyquist doesn’t do anything super flashy, but he just wins. Why change that? I don’t think O’Neill would want to change his style at this point. The horse is in a good place right now mentally and physically. At this point, O’Neill hopes for racing luck and that his horse runs his race. If Nyquist goes to the front early, he will get some pressure for sure, simply because it’s the Kentucky Derby and there will be tons of pace up front.
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The odds are also in Nyquist's favor at 3-1. The betting favorite has won each of the last three Kentucky Derby races, though it has been 41 years since it happened four straight times.
Not to keep harping on American Pharoah, but you couldn't help but look at him and be impressed. He was a dazzling physical specimen who seemingly towered over every other horse on the track.
Nyquist doesn't have that kind of mystique around him. He's just a good racing horse. It's not a sexy profile that's going to get a lot of headlines before a race, but there's nothing wrong with his style.
The Underdog: Shagaf
There is no good time to have a bad performance in sports, but it's particularly devastating to enter the biggest event of the year coming off a bad finish.
That's the scenario Shagaf finds himself in after finishing a disappointing fifth at the Wood Memorial on April 9. He does have a legitimate reason for that poor showing, as the track in New York was a mess thanks to bad weather in the area.
Looking ahead to this weekend, per Weather.com, mostly sunny temperatures are being forecast for Friday and Saturday for the Kentucky Derby. Shagaf will have the clean track he needs to make a run at the title.
Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal noted that Shagaf comes from good bloodlines, and trainer Chad Brown said the horse is ready to compete this weekend:
"The Gotham (GIII) winner is by Bernardini, who himself was and is known as a superb physical specimen, and out of Muhaawara (by Unbridled’s Song), a two-turn stakes winner in New York for owner Shadwell Farm and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Second dam Habibti was a multiple Grade I winner at 2 for owner The Thoroughbred Corporation and trainer Bob Baffert.
“I don’t see any way that this horse isn’t made to go a mile-and-a-quarter or farther, between his pedigree and the way he looks and trains,” Brown said. “I’m confident he’ll get the distance and I love the way he’s training.”
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Bettors should be salivating at the chance to put money on Shagaf, given his favorable odds due to the poor finish at the Wood Memorial last month. Circumstances played a role into that outcome as much as anything.
Prior to that race, Shagaf was building a lot of momentum. He won the Gotham Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths on a track that was running fast.
Prediction: Mohaymen
Mohaymen was everyone's presumptive favorite at the Kentucky Derby before Nyquist knocked him off at the Florida Derby. It was his first loss in six career starts, causing all of those skeptics previously mentioned with Shagaf to come out of the woodwork.
Because of Mohaymen's stellar resume, he didn't fall as far down the betting list as Shagaf did. Kiaran P. McLaughlin told reporters the team isn't discouraged by what happened in Florida, according to Mike Farrell of the Associated Press.
"We feel like he will rebound and run his 'A' race," McLaughlin said. "It was a funny day. The track was funny, and the trip was funny. I get it. Had we won that day, people would be lined up at our barn instead of (O'Neill's) barn."
One aspect of Mohaymen's racing style that should not get overlooked is closing from the outside, which Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Forum broke down after February's Fountain of Youth race:
"Mohaymen ($2.80), starting from the outside post in the field of six, was carried four paths wide around the first turn but never lost his focus nor became overanxious when avoiding 131-1 longshot Golden Ray, who crashed into Awesome Speed shortly after the start and tried to lug out around the first turn.
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The field Mohaymen will be facing Saturday is going to be much bigger than that one, but his team has overcome adversity from a bad starting position before and has learned more about the horse following the Florida Derby.
The No. 14 post has not traditionally been successful for riders, producing only two winners since 1900, with Carry Back in 1961 being the last one. Mohaymen is fighting his own recent history and long-term post history, but that's only going to fuel his team's resolve to get things back on track.
Odds information and stats per OddsShark.com unless otherwise noted.
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