Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Latest Field Betting Lines Before Post Position Draw
Odds for the 2016 Kentucky Derby figure to change considerably following Wednesday's post position draw, but the perceived top contenders have consistently headlined as favorites leading up to the 142nd Run for the Roses.
VegasInsider.com's latest listings from Tuesday have Nyquist as a 13-5 bet to go to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mohaymen checks in second at 9-2, followed by No. 3 co-favorites Exaggerator and Gun Runner at 6-1.
Although the gap between Nyquist and the other entries is rather notable, it's a logjammed lineup thereafter.
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Check out the full odds for those most likely to enter the exclusive field of 20 below. Then read on for an odds breakdown of Saturday's race.
| Nyquist | 13-5 |
| Mohaymen | 9-2 |
| Exaggerator | 6-1 |
| Gun Runner | 6-1 |
| Mor Spirit | 7-1 |
| Creator | 14-1 |
| Destin | 15-1 |
| Outwork | 15-1 |
| Danzing Candy | 17-1 |
| Suddenbreakingnews | 18-1 |
| Brody's Cause | 20-1 |
| Mo Tom | 20-1 |
| My Man Sam | 20-1 |
| Whitmore | 20-1 |
| Shagaf | 25-1 |
| Lani | 28-1 |
| Adventist | 50-1 |
| Cherry Wine | 50-1 |
| Majesto | 50-1 |
| Tom's Ready | 50-1 |
| Trojan Nation | 50-1 |
| Collected | 60-1 |
| Fellowship | 60-1 |
| Oscar Nominated | 60-1 |
| Dazzling Gem | 65-1 |
| Discreetness | 75-1 |
| Star Hill | 85-1 |
| Unbridaled Outlaw | 85-1 |
| Azar | 100-1 |
| Laoban | 100-1 |
2016 Kentucky Derby Odds Analysis
Nyquist's seven wins in as many career races help drive the narrative that he's the horse to beat. It's tough to argue with that, especially since he backed up three Grade 1 victories in 2015 with a triumph in his last start at the Florida Derby.
Until that race at Gulfstream Park, Mohaymen had been undefeated as well but wound up finishing just outside of the money in fourth. The surprise stumble still apparently hasn't impacted oddsmakers' perceptions of his chances at Churchill Downs, though.
Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form weighed in on what he's seen from Mohaymen so far in Louisville—and it's almost as if the horse is determined to prove he can run better than he did in his most recent outing:
So why does Mohaymen command such respect in the wake of his first loss? His pedigree likely has a lot to do with it, thanks to a lineage that features Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew, along with Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic champion A.P. Indy (h/t PedigreeQuery.com).
Look no further than Exaggerator's 6 ½-length win at the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy, rain-soaked track to justify his listing as a prominent candidate to finish in the money.
As for Gun Runner, he has history at the site of the Kentucky Derby, where he won his first race. He also finished fourth in last year's Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club—his only defeat in five starts.
After winning the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner has some credibility as a favorite but may suffer in the odds hierarchy if he draws an unfavorable post position.
Not far behind at 7-1 is Mor Spirit, who is perhaps the best second-tier wager a bettor could make due to the strength of his connections. The Hall of Fame tandem of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Gary Stevens are backing Mor Spirit at Churchill Downs.
In seven races, Mor Spirit has never finished outside the top two and ran second to Exaggerator's performance of a lifetime at Santa Anita Park.
Baffert explained Monday how Mor Spirit's comfort with the venue ahead of this Saturday's showcase is a good indicator of success, per BloodHorse.com's Claire Novak:
"[Mor Spirit] moves over the surface here much better than Santa Anita, and that's half the battle, that they like it. I've brought horses here before that were just never comfortable with it, but he looked great today. He's coming into the race the right way, and he tries hard. He runs every time. Right when you think he's not running, all the sudden he'll put that head down. I feel that he's in a position where he's going to run his race, and we'll see if he's good enough.
"
Stevens has won thrice at the Kentucky Derby but not since 1997. His teaming with Baffert, who trained last year's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, bodes well to say the least.
Among other dark horses to watch are Danzing Candy (17-1) and Brody's Cause (20-1). The former beat out Mor Spirit and Exaggerator to win the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes in March, while the latter won the Blue Grass Stakes and won a maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs in September 2015.
It's a deep Kentucky Derby field with many savvy betting options to explore. That only adds to the intrigue surrounding Wednesday's post position draw, because if any of the favorites are in a tough spot, including Nyquist, this year's Triple Crown opener is truly anyone's to claim.
Stats courtesy of HorseRacingNation.com.
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