Canelo vs. Khan: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
Ladies and gentlemen, the guard has changed.
At least for the time being.
Though Floyd Mayweather Jr. continues to tease the prospect of a return to pursue a 50th consecutive victory, the clearest indicator boxing has moved on in the meantime is the presence of a big Las Vegas fight on a weekend marked by Money's marquee absence.
Instead, it'll be Canelo Alvarez and Amir Khan in the first top-shelf boxing event at the desert's new T-Mobile Arena, fighting for the versions of the middleweight title recognized by anyone who's not a sworn member of the burgeoning Gennady Golovkin cult.
Alvarez won the WBC middleweight crown last November from Miguel Cotto, who'd taken it two fights earlier from the division's last consensus champion, Sergio Martinez. But while Cotto and Alvarez agreed to fight at 155 pounds and Khan and Canelo will do the same, the mandate from the WBC is for the winner to meet Golovkin next—a proponent of the full 160-pound threshold—or risk losing the title.
Neither Alvarez nor Khan has expressed significant interest in such a prospect, so it remains a mystery what Saturday's winner will select from what's likely to be a full menu of lucrative options.
Golovkin's promoter, Tom Loeffler, told Bleacher Report his man will be at the fight this weekend but doesn't expect to force the issue with a dramatic public display.
"No confrontations necessary," Loeffler said. "That's not his style. We'll just be up there to see who is the champion after the fight that will be mandated to fight him."
It's Khan's first career appearance beyond the 147-pound weight class and only his fifth since officially abandoning the junior welterweight ranks at the end of 2012.
He's gone the full 12 rounds to win each of four fights as a welterweight, including a gritty unanimous decision over Chris Algieri in his most recent outing last spring.
Alvarez, meanwhile, has won four in a row since his lone career misstep against Mayweather in 2013, winning by knockouts against Alfredo Angulo and James Kirkland and going the distance to defeat Erislandy Lara and Cotto.
He, too, was a welterweight as recently as 2010 and has weighed anywhere from 149 1/2 to 155 while going 15-1 with nine KOs in the subsequent six years.
Date: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Time: HBO PPV starts at 9 p.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Odds: Alvarez (-500), Khan (+385)
Odds provided by Odds Shark and are correct as of Sunday at 10 p.m. ET; subject to change.
Rounds 1-2: Fast and Furious
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Though perception suggests Alvarez is significantly larger than Khan, the numbers say otherwise.
At 5'9", Alvarez is actually just a half-inch taller, and face-to-face publicity photos make it look like the Englishman may actually be a shade past his foe's height.
Meanwhile, Khan holds a half-inch edge in reach—71 inches to 70-1/2—that may be greater in practical terms, because at least some of Canelo's wingspan comes from broad shoulders and a wide back.
What that'll mean come Saturday is Khan is the longer man with faster hands and feet, and he'll need to use those advantages to their absolute maximum capacities.
Expect a quick left jab and even quicker movement to be his weapons of choice in the early going as he seeks to establish distance while keeping the fight as far away from the ropes as possible.
The closer he can get to resembling the track-star persona Erislandy Lara channeled while frustrating Alvarez for much of their 2014 get-together, the better off he's likely to be.
Score After Two Rounds: 20-18, Khan
Rounds 3-4: Closing the Gap
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The prospect of losing some rounds while sizing his man up and assessing the best long-haul tactics is hardly a new one for Alvarez.
He was nothing close to a wrecking machine in the early going against Lara two years ago, and it wasn't difficult to find people who thought Austin Trout was ahead at the halfway mark when he and Canelo got together in 2013.
Toward that end, though, while he's still a young-looking 25, it's easy to forget he's had 48 fights in a decade-long career—and has oft-times been tasked with tracking down quick-starting quarry.
He'll best do that Saturday by cutting off the ring and gradually eliminating the escape routes the faster, presumably less-powerful Khan will need to keep himself vertical.
It may take a few rounds to get the angles right, and Alvarez may have to wait for the challenger's initial energy burst to fade. But gradually getting in position to land shots will begin the softening process he'll need to get under way before Khan gets too far ahead on the scorecards.
Score After Four Rounds: 39-37, Khan
Rounds 5-6: Delaying the Inevitable
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If you miss the first four rounds on Saturday, don't fret. By watching the fifth and sixth rounds alone, you'll have all the sense you'll need of how it's going.
If Khan gets to the 15- and 18-minute marks without looking noticeably marked or fatigued, and if he's still managing to keep the fight at an arm's length without too many grinding exchanges, the chances of an upset will have risen dramatically.
However, if past is precedent, such a sequence seems unlikely.
Instead, it's easier to envision Alvarez continuing his own methodical progress as the halfway point nears, in much the same way he did—or at least attempted to do—against Lara, by pounding away at the body whenever the opportunity presented itself.
Against Khan, who struggled with a mauling Marcos Maidana and has never been in with a guy of Canelo's bulk, that sort of work is more likely to take a noticeable physical toll.
Score After Six Rounds: 58-56, Khan
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Rounds 7-8: Target Acquired
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Rocky Balboa caught up to Apollo Creed. Ray Leonard, at least the first time around, caught up to Thomas Hearns. And Canelo Alvarez, barring physical malady or divine intervention, will catch up to Amir Khan.
The Mexican has been a king of the grind since graduating to the belted class five years ago, scoring five wins via 12-round decision and two more via stoppages in the second halves of fights.
So by the time Round 7 arrives, he'll be in familiar territory while Khan will be playing "Beat the Clock."
The combinations that whisked air in the fight's first half will draw winces as the second half begins, and as the distance between challenger and champion shrinks, so will the likelihood of a surprise.
Expect the bout's initial knockdown somewhere in the final minute of the seventh, and—given the champion's propensity to finish what he starts—the stoppage most people expect ought to come in the first half of the eighth.
Final Wrap
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Once the post-fight interviews end, the next-fight forecasts begin.
And for a guy whose career has been written off as many times as Khan, suggesting another loss here means a permanent vacation from relevance is risky business.
He was dismissed as a weak-chinned pretender after a vaporization by Breidis Prescott (KO 1) in 2008 and seemed destined to be merchandised as damaged goods after misfires against Lamont Peterson (SD 12) and Danny Garcia (TKO 4) in 2011 and 2012—yet he managed to find his way back to the main stage.
So, given the sheer number of welterweights looking for high-profile dance partners, it's safe to say someone will find reason to dial him up again in the not-too-distant future.
As for Alvarez, he too will have plenty of suitors.
At the front of that line will certainly be Golovkin, but unless Team GGG acquiesces to catch-weight contingencies, it's hard to imagine members of the Canelo brain trust thinking the rewards of fighting the Kazakhstan-bred KO machine outweigh the risks.
Instead, it seems far more probable they'll leave him to roam the 160-pound wilderness while their man turns his attention toward the crop of 147-pounders—a Filipino veteran, perhaps, or maybe even a man named Money—willing to find common ground with a lineal middleweight king somewhere in the neighborhood of 154.
Gentlemen, start your press tours.
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